Sunday, November 09, 2014

Daish Expanding Tentacles in Pakistan

IS recruiting thousands in Pakistan, govt warned in 'secret' report
Mubashir Zaidi, Dawn, November 8, 2014

KARACHI: The provincial government of Balochistan has conveyed a confidential report to the federal government and law enforcement agencies warning of increased footprints of militant organisation Islamic State (IS), also known by the Arabic acronym Daish, in Pakistan.

The ‘secret information report', a copy of which is available with DawnNews, is dated October 31, and states that IS has claimed to have recruited a massive 10 to 12,000 followers from the Hangu and Kurram Agency tribal areas.

"It has been reliably learnt that Daish has offered some elements of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and Ahl-e-Sunnat Wai Jamat (ASWJ) to join hands in Pakistan. Daish has also formed a ten-member Strategic Planning Wing," the report from the Home and Tribal Affair Department of Balochistan says.

The report states that the IS plans to attack military installations and government buildings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in retaliation to the army-led Zarb-i-Azb operation in North Waziristan and also plans to target members of the minority Shia community.

The Balochistan government called for heightened vigilance and security measures in the province as well as the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to prevent and pre-empt such attacks.

It has moreover called for sensitising law enforcement agencies on the issue and an increased monitoring of LeJ members.

The warning comes days after six top commanders of the outlawed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), including its now defunct spokesman Shahidullah Shahid, have announced their allegiance to IS's caliph Abu Bakar Al-Baghdadi Al Qureshi Al-Hussaini..

The Taliban spokesman said he, along with TTP chief for Orakzai Agency Saeed Khan, TTP chief for Kurram Agency Daulat Khan, TTP's Khyber Agency chief Fateh Gul Zaman, TTP’s Peshawar chief Mufti Hassan and TTP’s Hangu chief Khalid Mansoor, have announced their allegiance to Abu Bakar Al-Baghdadi.

Earlier in the week, Shahidullah Shahid was replaced by Mohammad Khurasani as the new TTP spokesperson

The Islamic State's presence has not been officially established so far.
Perceived threat?

Security expert Dr Ejaz Hussain believes that Pakistan faces a perceived threat from the IS but it can mature into a real threat if they succeed in aligning themselves with the splinter groups of mainstream militants groups, including the TTP.

“If the Pakistan security apparatus fails to check their footprints, it could be a setback for them in future. It appears that the IS wants to focus on Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly the time when US forces begin to withdraw from Afghanistan. If not checked, IS will pose a major threat to South Asia and the Persian Gulf,” Hussain told Dawn.

IS, which is led by Abu Bakar Al-Baghdadi, is currently based in Iraq and Syria and occupies border areas. It is accused of killing hundreds of Muslims and some American and UK citizens, which include journalists and aid workers.

Wall-chalking has also begun to appear in support of IS in some cities of Pakistan, including Karachi and Khanewal.

ISIS Makes inroads in Afghanistan & Pakistan - Foreign Policy South Asia Channel, Sep 30, 2014

Taliban - ISIS Links in the Pakistan-Afghanistan Theatre

Pakistani Taliban likely to send more fighters to Iraq and Syria
The Pakistani Taliban has pledged support to militant groups fighting in Iraq and Syria; a move that should be taken seriously as the number of "Islamic State" sympathizers is rising, analyst Hassan Abbas tells DW.

Pakistani Taliban militants offered help to radical Muslim groups fighting in Iraq and Syria, according to a statement marking the Muslim holy festival of Eid al-Adha on October 4. Taliban chief Mullah Fazlullah addressed the fighters in the Middle East as "mujahideen brothers" and vowed to support them. "Mujahideen fighting in Iraq and Syria are our brothers and we are proud of their victories. We are part of them in moments of joy and sadness," said Fazlullah, according to the news agency dpa. "We are with you in these troubles and will help you in whatever way it is possible for us," he said.

The statement also called for unity between the different jihadist groups, coming even as its own group faces deepening internal divisions. "Islamic State" (IS), which controls vast swathes of land in Syria and Iraq, has been attempting to gain a foothold in South Asia.

Hassan Abbas, Chair at the National Defense University in Washington and author of the book The Taliban Revival, says in a DW interview that while there is still little evidence of IS activity in South Asia, the jihadist organization or other similar groups will attempt to expand their area of influence, should the security situation deteriorate in the region.

DW: How seriously should the international community take this pledge of allegiance by the Pakistani Taliban to IS?

Hassan Abbas: This development should be taken very seriously. The Pakistani Taliban or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan grew out of a wedlock between Pakistani militants and al Qaeda, so regional and global networking is not new to them.

More recently, the Pakistani Taliban have also found their way into the Syrian conflict and the latest declaration is a product of the new networking process taking place around the battle for Syria. This was bound to happen but in the West we fooled ourselves into believing otherwise.

Is there any evidence if IS presence in South Asia or of efforts to spread its influence in the region?

There is very little evidence of direct IS activity in South Asia at the moment but the number of South Asian sympathizers is on the rise. Some propaganda materials from the group such as pamphlets were distributed in the Pakistani cities of Peshawar and Karachi in the past few weeks.

But more than the Pakistani Taliban themselves, it is sectarian terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) who are likely to spearhead the IS agenda - such as targeting Shia Muslims and also Sunni Muslims inclined towards Sufi thinking - among other things.

How would the Pakistani Taliban be able to support IS?

They can provide more foot soldiers - a few hundred are already operating in Syria and Iraq. More dangerous will be the ideological impact. At present, while IS is triggering the disgust of common Muslims in South Asia, extremists are very much cherishing the rise of the militant group as it gives them the idea that the Islamic state of their dreams is being realized.

What is the Pakistani government's stance on IS?

Given that the development is very recent, there has been little response so far. But it has become evident from the widespread terrorist attacks in recent years that the government of Pakistan is usually very slow in comprehending emerging security threats.

How could IS benefit from the current rivalries between the different Taliban groups both in Afghanistan and Pakistan and the impending foreign troops withdrawal from Afghanistan?

This can be a golden opportunity for IS. This is substantiated by the fact that even al Qaeda under its current leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has been trying to keep its membership intact by reframing its agenda and establishing a new branch of al Qaeda in South Asia. They are worried that IS may lure their supporters away.

In the case of a deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan or parts of it, IS or other similar groups will attempt to expand their area of influence. IS will likely pass on that task to the Pakistani Taliban who are looking for such a task.

What could both local governments and the international community do to prevent this from happening?

There are both short term and long term remedies we should think about. In short term, civilian law enforcement and military should collaborate on understanding the nature of this emerging threat scenario and also engage the public in terms of creating awareness in South Asian states, especially Pakistan.

In Afghanistan, successful political transition - which is already taking shape - will be critical. In the long-term scenario, investing in deradicalization strategies and public education will bear fruits.

Hassan Abbas is Professor and Chair at the National Defense University in Washington and author of "The Taliban Revival" (Yale University Press). The statements are his personal opinion.

Also see:
'The Costs of America's Imperial Hubris' - Review in Dawn, September 15, 2014

Saturday, November 08, 2014

'The Taliban Revival' profiled by 'Daily Show with Jon Stewart' - August 27, 2014



For complete Interview click here


Book Reviews: Survival, IISS (October - November 2014)
South Asia - By Teresita C. Schaffer
The Taliban Revival: Violence and Extremism on the Pakistan–Afghanistan Frontier
(Hassan Abbas. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2014. £18.99/$30.00. 280 pp.)

Hassan Abbas is a former Pakistan police officer who teaches at the US National Defense University, and has also held positions at Columbia and Harvard univer- sities. His analysis draws on extensive interviews in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and is informed by his police background. There are many books on the Taliban, but this one stands out for the way it weaves together the tribal, governmental and national aspects of this movement, and its Pakistani and Afghan wings.

The heart of the book starts with the return of the Taliban from its near-death experience after the fall of its government in Afghanistan in 2001. Abbas recounts unsparingly how the ambivalent views of the Musharraf government and the Pakistani army created the space that permitted the movement to revive, with a more militant presence in Pakistan than it had ever had before. He recounts the 2004–07 negotiations with the Pakistani Taliban, in which Islamabad repeat- edly sought a kind of non-aggression pact, only to discover that the Taliban had no intention of being hemmed in by such agreements. The parties to these negotiations had no common ground. Pakistan sought to preserve peace and governmental control, at least outside a recognised geographic area; the Taliban did not accept the ‘idea of Pakistan’ outside the framework of their goal of an Islamic emirate.

This problem has plagued efforts to arrive at reconciliation – or even a truce – for decades. The Pakistan government has repeatedly expressed confidence in its ability to fine-tune relations with the Taliban and related insurgents operat- ing in its territory. In fact, as Abbas recounts with skill and in detail, Pakistani governments – civilian and military alike – have systematically deluded them- selves (as well as their outside friends), hoping to retain the services of the ‘good Taliban’ to ward off the threat they most fear, from India.

The most valuable part of Abbas’s account deals with contemporary Pakistan. As he notes, the Pakistani Taliban directed the bulk of its 2013 election vio- lence against the more secular parties, going relatively easy on Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League and Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. Once in power, Sharif pushed for negotiations with the Taliban, and eventually discovered that it was not interested in returning the favour. Once again, the Pakistani authori- ties failed to recognise that the Taliban was not interested in a modus vivendi: it was fundamentally challenging the state of Pakistan. The same kind of blind spot, Abbas argues, affects Pakistan’s analysis of Afghanistan. Members of the Afghan Taliban are not only divided: they are also, like other Afghans, deeply suspicious of Pakistan, and their approach to dealing with more powerful forces is to play them off against one another.

This last point should not surprise anyone with even a cursory knowledge of Afghan history, and yet the newspapers are filled with example after example of outsiders – Americans, Pakistanis and others – expecting linear logic to govern their dealings with Afghans. What makes Abbas’s message so powerful is the spotlight he shines on the illusions that, tragically, keep Pakistan’s leaders engaged in a conspiracy game that threatens the country itself.

Other Reviews of The Taliban Revival:
Foreign Affairs Reviewed by John Waterbury, Nov 2014.
Express Tribune Reviewed by Lamia Zia, October 17, 2014.
Interview with VOA with Jim Stevenson, October 6, 2014.
London Review of Books by Owen Bennett Jones, September 2014.