Tuesday, January 29, 2013

A Pakistani General Reveals Details of the Kargil Fiasco

NOTE: The author of this blog had exposed these facts about Kargil Operation in his book 'Pakistan's Drift into Extremism' as early as July 2004: See the relevant text of the book by clicking here and here

Kargil Adventure was Four Men Show: General
Khaleeq Kiani, Dawn, January 29, 2013

ISLAMABAD: The men who witnessed the Kargil fiasco continue to spill the beans. Lt Gen (retd) Shahid Aziz, a former chief of general staff of Pakistan Army who has till now kept his peace about what he witnessed in the summer of ’99, says the ‘misadventure’ was a four-man show the details of which were hidden from the rest of the military commanders initially.

This is the first time someone this senior in the military hierarchy of the time has spoken in such detail and with such frankness about the fiasco that was Kargil.

According to him, initially the Kargil operation was known only to Gen Pervez Musharraf, chief of general staff Lt Gen Mohammad Aziz, FCNA (Force Command Northern Areas) commander Lt Gen Javed Hassan and 10-Corps commander Lt Gen Mahmud Ahmad.

The majority of corps commanders and principal staff officers were kept in the dark, says Gen Aziz. “Even the-then director general military operations (DGMO) Lt Gen Tauqir Zia came to know about it later,” says Gen Aziz who at the time was serving as director general of the analysis wing of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

He said that Gen Musharraf worked on a policy of “need to know” throughout his tenure as COAS and later president — in other words, Musharraf would issue orders to only those who were required to implement orders instead of first consulting corps commanders and other military officers.

The Kargil operation began in the summer of 1999 when Pakistani soldiers infiltrated into positions on the Indian side of the Line of Control.
The infiltration, which managed to cut off Indian supply lines, took New Delhi by surprise.

Initially, Islamabad claimed that the infiltrators were mujahideen but it could not maintain this façade for long. The Indian response coupled with international pressure forced the Pakistan military to withdraw.

However, the aftermath of the operation served to heighten tensions between Gen Musharraf and then prime minister Nawaz Sharif which culminated in the October coup when the military removed the elected government and took over.

‘Operation was never planned’

“The Pakistan Army did not plan the operation because Gen Musharraf never saw Kargil as a major operation. Only the FCNA was involved in it and perhaps a section of 10-Corps,” says Aziz, adding that it was a major intelligence failure for India. More details of the operation are expected in Gen Aziz’s book which is hitting the bookshelves next week.

“It was a miscalculated move,” he says when asked about the operation, adding that “its objectives were not clear and its ramifications were not properly evaluated”.

For complete article, click here

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

The Future of Taliban in Afghanistan?

Which Way Did the Taliban Go?
By Luke Mogelson,
New York Times, January 17, 2013

The village was abandoned. Streets deserted. Houses empty. Behind the central mosque rose a steep escarpment. Behind the escarpment mountains upon mountains. Up there — above the timberline, among the peaks — a white Taliban flag whipped in the wind. Several Afghan soldiers were admiring it when a stunted and contorted person emerged from an alley. Dressed in rags, he waved a hennaed fist at them and wailed. Tears streamed down his face. Most of the soldiers ignored him. Some laughed uncomfortably. A few jabbed their rifles at his chest and simulated shooting. The man carried on undeterred — reproaching them in strange tongues.

A truck pulled up, and Lt. Col. Mohammad Daowood, the battalion commander, stepped out. Everyone waited to see what he would do. Daowood is a man alive to his environment and adept at adjusting his behavior by severe or subtle degrees. He can transform, instantaneously, from empathetic ally to vicious disciplinarian. To be with him is to be in constant suspense over the direction of his mood. At the same time, there is a calculation to his temper. You feel it is always deliberately, never capriciously, employed. This only adds to his authority and makes it impossible to imagine him in a situation of which he is not the master. A flicker of recognition in the deranged man’s eyes suggested that he intuited this. He approached Daowood almost bashfully; only as he closed within striking range did he seem to regain his lunatic energy, emitting a low, threatening moan. We waited for Daowood to hit him. Instead, Daowood began to clap and sing. Instantly, the man’s face reorganized itself. Tearful indignation became pure, childish joy. He started to dance.

For complete article, click here

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Asia Society Blog: Pakistan's Moment is Near ?


Pakistan's Moment is Near — but Will Anyone Care? - by Hassan Abbas
Asia Society & CNN, January 15th, 2013

Pakistan is only months away from a first: A democratically elected government is slated to hand over power to another democratically elected government. Too bad few in Pakistan are in a celebratory mood.
The lack of excitement is due, in part, to a worsening economic situation and rampant corruption. Today, Pakistan’s Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf for fraud related to power plant deals. The previous day, Muhammad Tahirul Qadri, a former elected parliamentarian and an important religious figure who just returned from Canada, led tens of thousands of people in a protest against political corruption in the capital of Islamabad.
Taking control of the reins of government after a long military rule is never easy. Often people expect quick results and don’t fully realize the damage done to both the polity and society by dictators. They dream of jobs, justice and security, but it takes decades — not years — to build foundations of systems that deliver such goals in a progressive fashion. That said, if the transition can happen without any extra constitutional step, elections expected between April to June this year could be an important move toward a more successful Pakistan.
Despite a rocky five-year reign of the current civilian government, there are signs — both symbolic and tangible — of hope. The country’s recent cricket victory against India on Indian grounds brought a reason for cheer to the faces of its distressed populace. Bilateral visa relaxations with India and better regional trade prospects deserve recognition and Western support, though a recent skirmish in the Kashmir zone was an unfortunate reminder of tensions.
Furthermore, Pakistan's "negotiations with the Taliban" are continuing, and some progress is indeed being made in the so-called reconciliation efforts and increased collaboration between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The invisible push from D.C. is finally working. Still, at best one can be cautiously optimistic about an amicably reached final settlement that will bring peace to the region, especially Afghanistan. Manipulating and distorting Islam has become an art for the Taliban, and no one can confidently predict what new slogan will be employed by them after the projected 2014 U.S. exit. Even if the moderate elements among the Taliban are successfully co-opted, it is unlikely the Pakistani Taliban will lay down arms voluntarily and follow their "brothers in arms" across the Pashtun frontier.
Meanwhile, a heartening story is emerging from the Hazara Shia community in Baluchistan. The results of a brutal genocide of their religious community are still playing out, but their peaceful response created a new precedent in the history of nonviolent protests. The Hazara Shia refused to bury the 87 victims of the most recent terrorist attack in Quetta and camped in freezing conditions with the wrapped bodies for over three days demanding justice.
Protesters included small children and women from the families of the victims and their plight touched the hearts of Pakistanis around the country. Within just a few hours thousands of people — rising above any ethnic or political affinities — came out in the streets across the country to show solidarity with these matchless campaigners. All this happened in the midst of a severe threat of terrorism to these processions. This surge of support forced the political leadership to move out of its slumber and dismiss the Baluchistan government. A democratic remedy of this tragedy is no mean feat. The fact that the protesters remained peaceful is an even a brighter signal for the moral health of the society.
Everyday Pakistanis, however, still face troubling violence in their lives due to a rising crime wave in Karachi and continued militancy in the Pak-Afghan tribal belt. Low investment in law enforcement and the rule of law, as well as failure to bring the tribal areas into the mainstream, has not helped security issues. No one in the corridors of power seems to be pushing for the education of the tens of millions of young Pakistanis who face unemployment and frustration. No wonder that Imran Khan, a rising political star, had earlier attracted mammoth crowds across the country challenging the status quo. The tens of thousands now camping on the streets of Islamabad as part of a "long march" under the Tahirul Qadri, are also bracing the cold along with women and children to vent their discontent. Qadri's demands are too ambitious and beyond what the constitution permits, but his supporters' motivations to bring change appear genuine.
These public outpourings have also created fear about the derailment of the train of democracy. An activist judiciary and alarmed military are creating suspicions. That said, it is likely Pakistan will continue to inch towards national elections in coming months and people will speak through their votes. One earnestly hopes that people will take out their rage at feudalism and dynastic politics, the true bane of democracy in the developing world. Manipulating democratic systems in a country with low or poor education standards requires little creativity and even fewer leadership skills.
At the end of the day, it all comes down to the effectiveness of governance models adopted by the state and the quality of leadership. As a remedy of the governance crisis faced by South Asia, teachings from Ali Ibne Abi Talib, the "patron-Saint" of Islam and a great Muslim leader of early times, is relevant. He argued that the best preparation to become a leader is to be in "the service of mankind" and warned that "abandoning equity and justice leads to tyranny and oppression." In Pakistan, it's crucial that future leaders follow this wisdom.
Today in an address and discussion, Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar of Pakistan will answer the most vexing questions facing the U.S. and South Asia. It will be moderated by Joe Klein, political columnist forTIME. Tune in to AsiaSociety.org/Live at 6:30 pm ET for a free live video webcast. Viewers are encouraged to submit questions to moderator@asiasociety.org

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Dynamics of Terror Against Hazara Shia Community of Pakistan

[Irfan Ali died in a terrorist attack targeting Shia Hazara in Quetta recently]

Silencing the Voice of the Voiceless
Saleem Javed, Dawn, January 12, 2013

His parents named him Irfan Ali but he added ‘Khudi’ to it later on. He strongly believed in Iqbal’s ‘Khudi ko kar buland itna kay hurr taqdeer se pehlay … khuda banday se khud puchay bata teri raza kya hai’.

Ali had an intense devotion to education, which is why he was hugely disappointed when he, like many of his fellow citizens, was unable to complete his schooling due to the worsening security situation in Balochistan, particularly his home city – Quetta. His dream of becoming a social psychologist was never realised.

Not one to give up, he found the next best way to quench his thirst for knowledge: engaging with people from various ethnicities and religions. He would try and study every person he met, interacting with them to better understand their lives, their struggles. The honest effort he made in getting to know someone made him approachable and trustworthy.

Ali never remained a mere spectator to what was happening in his country, his province and particularly, his home city where members of his community were being unabatedly slaughtered. His voice rang loud and clear; mobilising the youth, and organising seminars and conferences to address the deteriorating human rights situations in Balochistan.

For complete article, click here



Related - Background:
The travails of the Hazara community - Express Tribune, Jan 13, 2013
Why Hazara? - Dawn, Jan 13, 2013
Protests spread in Pakistan over Shiite killings - Christian Science Monitor, Jan 13, 2013
Crying for the light - Ghazi Salahuddin, The News, January 13, 2013
Pakistan Reels With Violence Against Shiites, New York Times, December 3, 2012
‘Hazara killings a systematic genocide’ - Express Tribune, April 29, 2012

Tuesday, January 08, 2013

Book Event: Negotiating the Borders Between Terror, Politics, and Religion

Talibanistan: Negotiating the Borders Between Terror, Politics, and Religion

  
VIDEO: http://newamerica.net/events/2013/talibanistan
The longest war the United States has ever fought is the ongoing war in Afghanistan. But when refer to "Afghanistan," we really mean a conflict that straddles the border with Pakistan -- and the reality of Islamic militancy on that border is enormously complicated. In Talibanistan, an unparalleled group of experts offer a nuanced understanding of this critical region.

Please join the New America Foundation's National Security Studies Program for a conversation with some of these experts about the militancy and extremism that continue to plague Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan.

January 8, 2013: 12:15 pm - 1:45 pm
New America Foundation
1899 L St. NW Suite 400, Washington DC, 20036

On Twitter? Follow @AfPakChannel and use #Talibanistan for updates.       

Featured Speakers
Col. Thomas Lynch III
Colonel-Retired, U.S. Army
Distinguished Research Fellow, National Defense University
Anand Gopal
Bernard L. Schwartz Fellow, New America Foundation
Hassan Abbas
Senior Advisor, Asia Society
Professor, National Defense University
Brian Fishman
Philanthropic Engineer, Palantir Technologies
Counterterrorism Research Fellow, New America Foundation
Sameer Lalwani
Research Fellow, National Security Studies Program, New America Foundation
Ken Ballen   
President, Terror Free Tomorrow 
Peter Bergen
Director, National Security Studies Program, New America Foundation
 
To RSVP for the event, click http://newamerica.net/events/2013/talibanistan 

For questions, contact Stephanie Gunter at New America at (202) 596-3367 or gunter@newamerica.net

Monday, January 07, 2013

Change in Pakistan's Security Policy ?

Paradigm Shift? Reassessing Pakistan’s Security

Raza Rumi, January 6, 2013
Published in The News on Sunday
The Pakistan army has reportedly revised its security assessment and is now placing more emphasis on ‘internal threats’ rather than external enemies
 
Media reports suggest that the Pakistan army has revised its security assessment and is now placing more emphasis on ‘internal threats’ rather than the external enemies which had informed its strategy as well as operations. This is a welcome development. The details of the new doctrine are unclear but there have been three indications in the recent past. First, the tacit support to the civilian government’s thaw with India and undertaking the unimaginable: trade with India. Second, the chief of the army staff, Gen Kayani, while speaking at an official ceremony on August 14, cited the threat of extremism and reiterated the moderate ethos of Islam. Thirdly, the continued battle against militants in the northwest of the country continues without any major policy reversal.

There are two issues with the internal shifts, if any, in the way military is proceeding with its strategic rethink. First of all, due to its structure and institutional culture it is not an open and engaging entity. Decisions are centralised and are taken by a coterie of top commanders. Secondly it is also learning to readjust its power and influence within the context of a changing Pakistan.

Secondly, after five years of civilian rule and emergence of new power centres (judiciary and media), its exclusive monopoly of power had been eroded. For instance, launching a coup though not impossible is a far more complicated endeavour. In this fluid political environment, the Army has yet to find a comfortable equilibrium with the political forces and the parliament. It might have been more useful had the army tried to engage with the national security committee of the parliament thereby giving its rethink more depth, public input and long term legitimacy.

Let’s not forget that the ideological propaganda of al Qaeda and its affiliates has penetrated various sections of the Pakistani society. Whilst the Pakistani population does not want a Taliban type regime that bans women’s education, a vast majority of the population considers the US as an enemy of Islam and the Muslim. More often than not the West — as a vague construct — is also employed in this xenophobic and violent ideology of resistance. This narrative has gained ground in the country whether we like or not.
Sadly the elements of the state, especially the military, have added to this paranoia by firstly allowing the torchbearers of this ideology to live safely in the country for over a decade and secondly to operate from within the country. In this lax environment, the al Qaeda and its junior partner, the Taliban, have made some local alliances and established more bases beyond the rugged mountains of the north. Media reports again inform us that sectarian groups are also in alliance with the Salafi Islamists and many places in mainland Pakistan such as Karachi, South Punjab etc are the new havens.

For complete article, click here

Relevant:
Pakistan: Will Doctrinal Shifts Lead to Changes toward India?
Viewpoint: Pakistan seeks Afghan talks between government, Taliban and US - Ahmed Rashid