Monday, November 28, 2011

America's Strategic Error ?

Pakistan has had enoughThe assumption that it has no choice but to obey America may turn out to be a dire strategic error
Simon Tisdall, guardian.co.uk,



Related:

U.S. Needs Pakistan To Attain Afghan Goals - NPR

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Rupture in the US-Pakistan Relations


Pakistani soldiers pay their last respects to their colleagues
Tensions Flare Between U.S. and Pakistan After Strike

By SALMAN MASOOD and , New York Times, Nov 27, 2011

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistani officials said on Saturday that NATO aircraft had killed at least 25 soldiers in strikes against two military posts at the northwestern border with Afghanistan, and the country’s supreme army commander called them unprovoked acts of aggression in a new flash point between the United States and Pakistan.

The Pakistani government responded by ordering the Central Intelligence Agency to vacate the drone operations it runs from Shamsi Air Base, in western Pakistan, within 15 days. It also closed the two main NATO supply routes into Afghanistan, including the one at Torkham. NATO forces receive roughly 40 percent of their supplies through that crossing, which runs through the Khyber Pass, and Pakistan gave no estimate for how long the routes might be shut down.

A NATO spokesman said it was likely that allied airstrikes caused the Pakistani casualties, but said an investigation had been ordered to determine the cause.

In Washington, American officials were scrambling to assess what had happened amid preliminary reports that allied forces in Afghanistan engaged in a firefight along the border and called in airstrikes. Senior Obama administration officials were also weighing the implications on a relationship that took a sharp turn for the worse after a Navy Seal commando raid killed Osama bin Laden near Islamabad in May, and that has deteriorated since then.

“Senior U.S. civilian and military officials have been in touch with their Pakistani counterparts from Islamabad, Kabul and Washington to express our condolences, our desire to work together to determine what took place and our commitment to the U.S.-Pakistan partnership, which advances our shared interests, including fighting terrorism in the region,” said Caitlin Hayden, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Pakistan outrage after 'Nato attack kills soldiers' - BBC
Pakistan's reaction to border post air strike leaves Nato tactics in disarray - Guardian
NATO attack: Suspend supply lines, vacate Shamsi air base in 15 days, DCC decides - Express Tribune

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Pakistan: Where Nonsense has a life of its own

Where nonsense has a life of its own
Ayaz Amir, The News, November 25, 2011

Ours must be the most insecure country in the world, and the most paranoid. We are terrified not just by our nightmares but our very shadows. And judging by our behaviour we seem to think that the rest of the world has nothing else on its mind but how to undermine the Islamic Republic’s impregnable foundations.

Husain Haqqani and Mansoor Ijaz deserve each other. They are of a kind. The BlackBerry evidence leaves little doubt that in the preparation of the memo, which has all of establishment Pakistan in a spin, both were in it together.

But suppose it was not just one memo delivered to Admiral Mike Mullen but a full dozen, would this paper trail have led to the castration of the Pakistani military at American hands? Would the army have been brought under the Pentagon’s control and our vaunted nuclear assets under American discipline? Some assets these, whose possession instead of making us a more confident nation seems to have made us more insecure.

In God’s name what are we talking about? The American lobbying and think-tank scene is full of characters like Mansoor Ijaz. Remember the Iraqi conman Ahmed Chalabi who sold himself to Donald Rumsfeld and his crew as a future leader of Iraq? Washington DC crawls with such self-promoters. All right, he had what is being called an “explosive” memo delivered to Mike Mullen. Did the latter order the Sixth or Seventh Fleet into Pakistani waters? Did American drones start circling over the sites where our treasured nuclear assets are kept?

Mullen’s office did the only sensible thing: ignore the memo. Or do we have anything to suggest that it was taken seriously? Yet here the world’s only Islamic nuclear power, as we never tire of reminding ourselves, has been shaken to its roots by this piece of paper. Mansoor Ijaz must be flattered.

Of course President Zardari’s man in Washington – always more the president’s man than Pakistan’s – had no business being involved in the cooking up of the memo. But we have his ambassadorial scalp, don’t we? He’s always been a cool man, I think a bit too cool, but in a TV programme I was on with him he got a bit emotional and I had to tell him to calm down. What more do we want?

Or is it that his scalp is not enough and there are people whose dearest wish is to see the memo trail go right up to the Presidency? Now that would be some trophy, wouldn’t it? Establishment Pakistan has never hated anyone as fiercely as Zardari, the central charge against him being corruption and cronyism unlimited. All this may be true but, it bears remembering, he is, like it or not, the elected president of the republic.

And, come to think of it, the establishment’s likes and dislikes have never been defined solely by corruption. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was not corrupt but the establishment hated him. Akbar Bugti was a nationalist but Musharraf hated him. The military has had its share of corrupt generals, admirals and air marshals. How many of them have had to pay for their misdeeds?

For complete article, click here

Profile of Sherry Rahman - Pakistan's New Ambassador to the U.S.


Challenges for Pakistan's New Ambassador to the US
By Nadia Rasul, Asia Society, November 23rd, 2011

Pakistan has appointed former Minister for Information Sherry Rehman as its new ambassador to the United States, following a controversy surrounding a mysterious memo that forced the country's previous representative, Ambassador Husain Haqqani, to resign. Asia Society's experts believe that the new ambassador will be facing tough challenges in Washington.

"Sherry Rehman is a great choice as Pakistan's ambassador to the US," says Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor at the Asia Society. "Her experience as a journalist, human rights activist and as a parliamentarian will be very useful in her new assignment.

"A close associate of late Benazir Bhutto, she is a courageous Pakistani who was not afraid to challenge the status quo in Pakistan.

"She is likely to get strong support from all major stake holders in Pakistan. However, effectively representing Pakistan in DC in the prevailing scenario will be very challenging."

"Sherry Rehman’s appointment as Pakistan’s new ambassador to the United States comes at an intensely tumultuous time in US-Pakistan relations," says Suzanne DiMaggio, Vice President, Global Policy Programs at Asia Society in New York. “Her track record as a strong advocate of women's and minority rights who risked her life by campaigning against Pakistan's anti-blasphemy laws will play well in Washington.

“And, while her reputation as a liberal minded, pro-American moderate does not help her at home among her critics, it could well position her to be a bridge to overcoming the 'trust deficit' plaguing the two countries.

“She’ll face the immediate challenge of trying to convince some powerful members of the U.S. Congress that American disengagement from Pakistan and the withdrawal of financial assistance are not viable options. This will be a tough sell given the mood in Washington.”

DiMaggio and Abbas are members of Asia Society’s Pakistan 2020 Study Group, which recently published a policy report, Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future.

The report emphasizes that without the urgent change, terrorism, religious extremism, underdevelopment, and chronic political instability will only worsen in Pakistan. It also calls on the United States and its allies to continue to play a supportive role despite these challenges.

Abbas also appeared on public radio's morning program The Takeaway earlier today to discuss why the mysterious memo attributed to Haqqani so incensed Pakistan's military. To listen click here

Related:
Profile: Sherry Rehman, from journalist to ambassador - Saba Imtiaz, The Express Tribune
Profile: Pakistan's new US envoy Sherry Rehman - BBC

What the U.S. Intel Thinks about the Future of Afghanistan?

Let’s Hear from the Spies

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Memogate: Pakistan's Ambassador to the U.S. Resigns

Memogate: Pakistan's Ambassador to the U.S. Resigns, Twitter Reacts
Asia Society,

Pakistan Ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani announced from his Twitter account (@husainhaqqani) this morning that he asked Prime Minster Yousaf Raza Gillani to accept his resignation. The resignation has been accepted.

Haqqani had earlier tendered a formal resignation to the Prime Minister following allegations he wrote a memo to Washington asking for its help in forestalling a military coup in Pakistan and diminishing the power of its army in the aftermath of the U.S. raid to kill Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad last May. The scandal being referred to as "Memogate" has further strained relations between Pakistan's civilian and military leaders.

According to several media reports, US Joints Chiefs Chairman Michael Mullen did receive a secret communication. However, the admiral said he did not pay attention to it and took no follow-up action.
The Pakistani Ambassador, a prominent figure in Washington’s diplomatic scene, has denied writing or delivering the memo, which was unsigned.

“To me, Pakistan and Pakistan’s democracy are far more important than any artificially created crisis over an insignificant memo written by a self-centered businessman,” he said in a statement to the Washington Post. “I have served Pakistan and Pakistani democracy to the best of my ability and will continue to do so."
According to the Express Tribune, A Prime Minister house spokesperson said that Haqqani was asked to resign to make the inquiry process "transparent." If the inquiry clears Haqqani, he may be reinstated, and his resignation shouldn't be seen as an admission of guilt.

Following the tweet of his resignation as Ambassador, a position he had held since 2008, Haqqani followed with the message:

I have much to contribute to building a new Pakistan free of bigotry & intolerance. Will focus energies on that.

Asked for comment, former Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Fellow Hassan Abbas said: "The resignation of Pakistan's savvy ambassador to the U.S., Hussain Haqqani, may open up a Pandora's box of civil-military differences on key foreign policy issues faced by Pakistan.

"The stinking controversy that has led to his departure remains an resolved mystery which raises many questions. The most critical is whether Mansoor Ejaz — the American businessman whose disclosures initiated the crisis — acted alone or acted on behalf of any influential group in the U.S. or Pakistan.
"If the allegations relating to the memo are accurate, then it is pertinent to question whether Haqqani was acting alone or if this was reflective of the strategy of the top political leadership of Pakistan? Last but not least important, is the question of whether this resignation will lead to closure of the episode. That seems unlikely.

"In terms of the U.S.-Pakistan relations, though this development is not expected to have any deep impact, the bilateral defense sector cooperation might improve."

For complete article, click here

Related:
Pakistani Ambassador Is Forced Out Over Memo - New York Times
Pakistani ambassador's 'memo-gate': Did the military win? - Christian Science Monitor

Monday, November 21, 2011

Asia Foundation's Survey of the Afghan People 2011

Afghanistan in 2011: A Survey of the Afghan People, a report by The Asia Foundation.


To download the complete report (pdf), click here

Asia Foundation Afghan poll reveals increased pessimism
BBC, Nov 15, 2011

More Afghans than at any time since 2004 believe their country is moving in the wrong direction, an annual poll by US group The Asia Foundation reveals.

While 46% think their country is moving in the right direction, 35% disagreed, an 8% jump compared with last year.

Growing insecurity was the main reason for increasing pessimism, the group found. It began Afghan polling in 2004.

The 2011 survey found more people satisfied with education, water and health provision than before.
Sympathy for armed militant groups such as the Taliban fell to 29% from 40% in 2010, the lowest level recorded by the Asia Foundation.

The survey also showed considerable public support for efforts to reach out and make peace with militant groups.

The findings come just months after a UN report said there had been a considerable rise in violent incidents in Afghanistan this year, particularly in the south and south-east.

The Asia Foundation survey appeared to reflect this, with residents of those areas expressing the highest degree of uncertainty.

The survey interviewed more than 6,300 Afghan citizens across all of the country's 34 provinces.

Related:
Doubt cast over glowing Afghan survey - Aljazeera
As U.S. Prepares to Exit, Poll Shows Afghan Public Fearful for Its Safety -- and Democracy's Demands - NPR
Reflecting on Afghan public opinion - The Nation (Pakistan)

Friday, November 18, 2011

The 'Memogate' Mystery

From The News, November 18, 2011

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM
 BRIEFING FOR ADM. MIKE MULLEN, CHAIRMAN, JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF

During the past 72 hours since a meeting was held between the president, the prime minister and the chief of army staff, there has seen a significant deterioration in Pakistan's political atmosphere. Increasingly desperate efforts by the various agencies and factions within the government to find a home - ISI and/or Army, or the civilian government - for assigning blame over the UBL raid now dominate the tug of war between military and civilian sectors. Subsequent tit-for-tat reactions, including outing of the CIA station chief's name in Islamabad by ISI officials, demonstrates a dangerous devolution of the ground situation in Islamabad where no central control appears to be in place.

Civilians cannot withstand much more of the hard pressure being delivered from the Army to succumb to wholesale changes. If civilians are forced from power, Pakistan becomes a sanctuary for UBL's legacy and potentially the platform for far more rapid spread of al Qaeda's brand of fanaticism and terror. A unique window of opportunity exists for the civilians to gain the upper hand over army and intelligence directorates due to their complicity in the UBL matter.

Request your direct intervention in conveying a strong, urgent and direct message to Gen Kayani that delivers Washington's demand for him and Gen Pasha to end their brinkmanship aimed at bringing down the civilian apparatus - that this is a 1971 moment in Pakistan's history. Should you be willing to do so, Washington's political/military backing would result in a revamp of the civilian government that, while weak at the top echelon in terms of strategic direction and implementation (even though mandated by domestic political forces), in a wholesale manner replaces the national security adviser and other national security officials with trusted advisers that include ex-military and civilian leaders favorably viewed by Washington, each of whom have long and historical ties to the US military, political and intelligence communities. Names will be provided to you in a face-to-face meeting with the person delivering this message.

In the event Washington's direct intervention behind the scenes can be secured through your personal communication with Kayani (he will likely listen only to you at this moment) to stand down the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment, the new national security team is prepared, with full backing of the civilian apparatus, to do the following:

1. President of Pakistan will order an independent inquiry into the allegations that Pakistan harbored and offered assistance to UBL and other senior Qaeda operatives. The White House can suggest names of independent investigators to populate the panel, along the lines of the bipartisan 9-11 Commission, for example.

2. The inquiry will be accountable and independent, and result in findings of tangible value to the US government and the American people that identify with exacting detail those elements responsible for harboring and aiding UBL inside and close to the inner ring of influence in Pakistan's Government (civilian, intelligence directorates and military). It is certain that the UBL Commission will result in immediate termination of active service officers in the appropriate government offices and agencies found responsible for complicity in assisting UBL.

3. The new national security team will implement a policy of either handing over those left in the leadership of Al Qaeda or other affiliated terrorist groups who are still on Pakistani soil, including Ayman Al Zawahiri, Mullah Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani, or giving US military forces a "green light" to conduct the necessary operations to capture or kill them on Pakistani soil. This "carte blanche" guarantee is not without political risks, but should demonstrate the new group's commitment to rooting out bad elements on our soil. This commitment has the backing of the top echelon on the civilian side of our house, and we will insure necessary collateral support.

4. One of the great fears of the military-intelligence establishment is that with your stealth capabilities to enter and exit Pakistani airspace at will, Pakistan's nuclear assets are now legitimate targets. The new national security team is prepared, with full backing of the Pakistani government - initially civilian but eventually all three power centers - to develop an acceptable framework of discipline for the nuclear program. This effort was begun under the previous military regime, with acceptable results. We are prepared to reactivate those ideas and build on them in a way that brings Pakistan's nuclear assets under a more verifiable, transparent regime.

5. The new national security team will eliminate Section S of the ISI charged with maintaining relations to the Taliban, Haqqani network, etc. This will dramatically improve relations with Afghanistan.

6. We are prepared to cooperate fully under the new national security team's guidance with the Indian government on bringing all perpetrators of Pakistani origin to account for the 2008 Mumbai attacks, whether outside government or inside any part of the government, including its intelligence agencies. This includes handing over those against whom sufficient evidence exists of guilt to the Indian security services.

Pakistan faces a decision point of unprecedented importance. We, who believe in democratic governance and building a much better structural relationship in the region with India AND Afghanistan, seek US assistance to help us pigeon-hole the forces lined up against your interests and ours, including containment of certain elements inside our country that require appropriate re-sets and re-tasking in terms of direction and extent of responsibility after the UBL affair.

We submit this memorandum for your consideration collectively as the members of the new national security team who will be inducted by the President of Pakistan with your support in this undertaking.


Related:
For Mansoor Ijaz's column in Financial Times, click here
'Memogate' scandal reveals Pakistani splits - SF Chronicle
Memogate: Ambassador Haqqani will give explanation, says Gilani - Express Tribune
Pakistan US ambassador offers to resign over 'memogate' - BBC
A sceptic’s guide to memogate - Dawn

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Where Football Meets the Hijab



Reality TV Goes Where Football Meets the Hijab
New York Times, November 10, 2011
By POROCHISTA KHAKPOUR

IF anything made me an American, it was television. I learned English from soap operas — after kindergarten, curled up Mommy-side — and then beyond, the many hours she abandoned the sofa for the kitchen when I alternated between after-school cartoons and adult crime dramas. English came to me, and with it so many questions about what was happening on TV. But one that never hit home was why the people on the screen did not resemble my family. I suppose when your daily life involves acute consciousness of being a foreigner, you lack that sense of entitlement; self-identification with a popular representation of America was a luxury this newly transplanted Iranian immigrant didn’t even know to lust for.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Everyday Lives, Filled With Teachable Moments - NYT
TLC's 'All-American Muslim' spotlights Dearborn families - Detroit Free Press

India-Pakistan Peace Process - Positive Signs

Pakistan Army on board peace talks: Singh
Express Tribune, November 14, 2011

Two days after he and his Pakistani counterpart resolved to write a ‘new chapter’ in relations between their countries, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Saturday that Pakistan’s powerful military was fully on board in carrying forward the peace process, reports The Economic Times.

“I did discuss with Prime Minister Gilani whether the Pakistan Army is fully on board to carry forward the peace process. The sense I got was that after a long time, Pakistan’s armed forces are fully on board,” Singh told media persons on board Air India One while flying back home from the Maldives.
Premier Singh met with his Pakistani counterpart on the sidelines of the Saarc summit in the Maldivian city of Addu.

‘Man of Peace’
Singh’s description of Prime Minister Gilani as a ‘man of peace’ invited the wrath of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party.

Reacting to BJP’s criticism, Singh said: “I have met Prime Minister Gilani four to five times. He agreed with me that there is no way but to find a peaceful resolution of all outstanding issues.”
“I, therefore, believe that Pakistan has a democratic government and we will like to strengthen the hands of democratic government,” he said. “In Gilani, we have a prime minister who we can work with.”

For complete article, click here

Related:
Pak-India succeeded to reduce trust deficit: Hina - SANA
Pakistan, India urged to give trade a chance - The News
South Asian Leaders Hope Peace Stays on Agenda - VOA
UN Council seat & Pakistan-India ties - DAWN

Monday, November 07, 2011

Muslims and the US - Changing Dynamics



Members of the Muslim Brotherhood at prayer, while protesting for the ouster of Mubarak
Members of the Muslim Brotherhood at prayer, while protesting for the ouster of Mubarak
 
Political Islam and the US
Can the Muslim Brotherhood and the United States become friends?
In the wake of the Arab Spring, the US must deal with Islamist groups like Ennahdha and the Muslim Brotherhood. What challenges and opportunities are presented by formal diplomatic relations?

Joyce Karam, The Majalla, Nov 2, 2011

The rise of Islamist movements in the aftermath of the Arab Spring is representing both a challenge and an opportunity to the West as it looks to successful democratic transitions and maintaining its security and strategic interest in the broader Middle East.

The victory of Ennahdha moderate Islamic party in Tunisia, the solid support (35 percent) enjoyed by the Muslim brotherhood in neighboring Egypt, and the participation of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood in the new Syria National Council established in Istanbul last month, as well as the embrace of the head of Libya’s National Transitional Council Mustafa Abdul Jalil of “the Islamic Sharia as the main source of law,” are several indications of the growing importance of political Islamist movements in the Arab world. The roots of these movements in Arab societies—going back to 1928 in the case of Egypt—in addition to their organizational capacity which trumps other liberal and leftist groups, is giving them an edge in filling the void left by the departing dictators in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya.

The shifting political status quo makes the new Islamist movements key players in the democratic transitions ahead. Undoubtedly, the shifting political status quo makes the new Islamist movements key players in the democratic transitions ahead, and a force that representatives of western governments must reckon with as they each try to maintain their influence in the region. However, the Islamists’ foreign policy agendas, oriented by rejecting imperialism and opposing Israel, pose a challenge for the West.

The Challenges
Speaking to The Majalla about the rise of Islamic parties, Nathan Brown, author and expert on Arab politics and Islamist movements, suggests the key question is “whether they can be integrated as regular political actors without dominating the system.” The Iranian model embodies that risk, as Iran transformed into a military theocracy after its revolution that overthrew the authoritarian Shah in 1979.
For the West, Brown sees some bumps in the road as Europe and the US try to remain engaged and protect their vital security and strategic interests. He cites the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as one example, as well as counterterrorism and the US regional security presence. Since the fall of former President Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has made clear its intent to “rethink” the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel if it takes power.

For complete article, click here

Related:
On Tunisia's election results - Al-Ahram
Western Responsibility to Protect the Arab Spring - Huffington Post