Thursday, May 26, 2011

The Israel-Palestine Issue and the US Relations with the Muslim World

Palestine can bridge cultures, experts say
Islamic world and the West seen drifting apart in absence of a viable solution
By Samir Salama, Gulf News, May 19, 2011

Dubai: As the Arab spring re-energises the Palestinian issue, experts at a regional conference promoting inter-cultural dialogue in Abu Dhabi underscored the fact that unless and until the issue is resolved in a just manner, relations between Muslims and the West will remain tense.
"Resolving the question of Palestine is central to reducing tensions between Islam and the West," Dr Nader Hashemi, assistant professor of Middle East and Islamic Affairs, University of Denver, told the conference being held on the theme ‘Islam and the West: A civilised dialogue'. The conclave is being co-organised by the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research and the School of Policy and International Affairs at the University of Maine.

Dr Hashemi said the tendency to view the Israel-Palestine conflict by those on either side of the Islam-West divide from the perspective of their own historical experience had not been helpful in finding solutions. The fact that the conflict remains unresolved 60 years after it began perpetuated tension between the Western and Islamic worlds as both fall back on views about basic principles of justice rooted in transformative historical experiences that have shaped Western and Muslim identities, he said.

Broken Triangle theory

Dr Hashemi based his views on The Broken Triangle theory. "In 1965 Erskine B. Childers, an Irish national and UN civil servant authored an obscure essay in the Journal of International Affairs titled ‘Palestine: The Broken Triangle'. In this work he sought to explain the Israel-Palestine conflict by drawing upon the metaphor of a "broken triangle" where the three points of the triangle represented three different civilisational traditions: Christianity, Islam and Judaism. The origins of the conflict in historic Palestine, Childers argued, was internally a Western problem rooted in historic Christian anti-Semitism thus affecting one side of the triangle [the Christian-Jewish side]. A solution to this problem resulted in the creation of a Jewish state in the heart of the Arab-Islamic world thus leading to new conflict between Jews and Arabs [the second side of the triangle]. Due to strong Western and Christian support for Israel, tension and conflict between the Christian West and the Muslim world over the Israel-Palestine conflict has resulted and proliferated over time [the third side of the triangle]," he said.

Dalia Mogahed, executive director, Gallup Centre for Muslim Studies, said the centre's studies had established that countries in the Middle East and North Africa region were more engaged in and aware of the issues of Muslim-West relations than communities in Asian and sub-Saharan African countries.

For complete article, click here

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Who attacked Karachi Naval Base?

'New kind of militant' behind Pakistan Karachi attack


Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Analysing Terrorist attack on Pakistan's Naval Headquarters

No more glory, izzat da tukkar please!
By Raza Rumi | Dawn.com
Pakistan’s only viable and efficient institution has been attacked. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has accepted the responsibility for intruding into well guarded naval and air force bases; and managed to destroy state of the art equipment – two PC3 Orion aircraft costing millions of dollars – in a long drawn out operation.

The nightmare is over now. At least 10 security officials have been martyred in line of their duty and according to the Interior Minister Rehman Malik, four terrorists have been killed. The facts are unclear and true to the non-transparent culture we are used to. However, Pakistan has been shaken once again at this huge security lapse. Thus far the naval leadership is not willing to accept that this is a security failure.

However, the public at large after the May 2 strike is not willing to accept the usual tale of intelligence failures and lapses. Given that no answers are being given on the nature, motive and details of these events the Pakistani mind – an indoctrinated house of conspiracy theories – has gone overboard in creating a new version of Arabian Nights.

For complete article, click here
Related:
Naval base attack weakens Pakistan's counter-terror surveillance - Reuters
Analysis: Is Pakistan attack a blueprint for nuclear base raid? - Reuters
Militants may retaliate in Karachi: experts (after May 2 Osama operation) - The News
Were Pakistan army insiders involved in Karachi attack? - DNA
Yet More Strains on US-Pakistan Ties - Asia Society
Lights, camera, now weep! - Dawn

Testing Times for U.S.-Pakistan Ties

A Low in Cycle of U.S.-Pakistan Ties
Low in Cycle of U.S.-Pakistan Ties

Interviewee: Hassan Abbas, Fellow, Asia Society; Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, May 23, 2011, Council on Foreign Relations

Osama bin Laden's death May 1 during a U.S. raid on his compound in Abottabad, Pakistan, not far from Pakistan's premier military academy, has pushed U.S.-Pakistan relations to a "new low," says Hassan Abbas, author of a new study, Pakistan: 2020. Abbas says this is typical of the recent rocky relationship the two countries, which need each other but also undercut each other at crucial times. Abbas says a key reason for Pakistan's continued support for Taliban elements is concern about India gaining power in Afghanistan, which Pakistan sees as part of its "backyard." Abbas says relations could improve if Pakistan, whose military has a "phobia" about India that is not shared by most Pakistanis, could work out with India a settlement of the Kashmir dispute, which troubled relations since the founding of both states.

In the aftermath of Osama bin Laden's death, how would you describe the overall relationship between the United States and Pakistan?

Relations are at a new low, but if you look at it in the overall context of the past U.S.-Pakistan relationship I don't see this episode as much different from what has happened earlier in the ties between the two countries. For instance, during the Afghan War, Pakistan and the United States had a close relationship in supporting the Afghan mujahadeen against the Soviets. But immediately after the Russians left, the United States had serious concerns about Pakistan's nuclear program. It came as a real shock to the United States that Osama bin Laden was found within a one-mile radius of Pakistan's premier military training academy, [though] the recent comments by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates suggest that he does not believe necessarily (CBS) that the top brass in Pakistan knew, even if someone knew. Ups and downs have been a feature of the Pakistan-U.S. relationship. That relationship has been something between the most allied of allies and what some Pakistani military call "the most bullied of allies."

In the 1960s, Pakistan was one of the United States' top allies, though the relationship has deteriorated. Pakistanis fault the United States for dropping out of the region after the Soviet troops left Afghanistan. Is it in the interests of the Pakistan government and military to make the United States what amounts to "a hostile ally"?

That would be very detrimental to Pakistan. U.S. support to Pakistan is crucial in so many different ways: help with getting rid of the debt burden, supporting the Pakistani military, and now for the past two or three years the economic- and disaster-relief aid packages to Pakistan, which is the most significant help that Pakistan is receiving. If you look at the balance sheet of Pakistan's economy, the amount of investment by the U.S. and U.S. allies--whether it be direct aid to Pakistan, loans to Pakistan, or the IMF's support--the United States plays a major role.

The European Union also follows the United States' lead when it comes to aid or support for Pakistan, and Pakistan has been getting some support from Saudi Arabia as well. But my understanding is that even if you add the total amount of aid or support that Pakistan gets from Saudi Arabia, China, and some of the other Gulf states, U.S. support is much larger in magnitude. The Pakistani military loves China, but they love the U.S. military equipment more. Pakistan's army has some Japanese SUVs and once they bought some Ukrainian tanks, but otherwise the United States is the prime military supplier.

It would be really detrimental to Pakistan if this relationship becomes hostile. But there's another factor, which is how public opinion looks at the relationship--especially in the Arab and Islamic world, where everything is seen from the one lens of U.S. support for Israel. And after the Afghan War and the Iraq War, the U.S. image in the Muslim world has taken a hit. In addition, many people argue that we, the people in Pakistan, have not been the recipients of the U.S. aid. It is the Pakistani military and political elites who have benefited the most from this aid.

For complete interview, click here
Related:
Should U.S. Continue Aid to Pakistan? - Expert Roundup, CFR
The Devolution of Pakistan - By Ahmed Rashid, National Interest

Muslims in America by Jessica Stern - National Interest

Muslims in America
By Jessica Stern, From the May-June 2011 issue of National Interest

ON MARCH 10, Representative Peter King (R-NY), who has alleged that the vast majority of U.S. mosques are run by extremists, held a hearing on radicalization of Muslims in America. The event generated an astonishing reaction—from just about everyone. Demonstrators, both in favor of his position and against, gathered outside Mr. King’s offices on Long Island. The congressman requested additional security, and Capitol police were deployed to protect the hearing room as well as his workplace in Washington. Some pundits praised Mr. King for speaking the unspeakable on a topic usually beleaguered by political correctness. The Tea Party Patriots’ Facebook page urged supporters to call and stand behind Congressman King for his courage. But there were others who lambasted him for his lack of political sensitivity, pointing out that non-Muslim domestic terrorists are greater in number than Muslim ones. And Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) held up a copy of the Constitution while arguing that the hearing could well violate laws against religious discrimination: “this hearing today is playing right now into al-Qaeda, around the world.” Meanwhile, Keith Ellison (D-MN), one of two Muslims in the House, was unable to hold back tears as he recalled a Muslim paramedic who died while responding to the terrorist attacks of September 11.

Certainly Mr. King has had quite a lot to say about Muslims in America—much of it seemingly inflammatory.

For complete article, click here

Sunday, May 22, 2011

New and Explosive Wikileak Disclosures on Pakistan via Dawn.com

Dawn Presents WikiLeaks' Pakistan Papers
Dawn.com, May 2011

KARACHI: Trawling through the Pakistan Papers re-confirms much of what has been established since the first cache of US diplomatic cables was published last November.

The US is neither omnipotent nor omniscient — it often reacts to events in Pakistan rather than dictating outcomes. But the US is a very influential player in Pakistan.

If there is a theme as such in the 4,000-plus cables read by Dawn, it is the unparalleled access Americans enjoy in Pakistan.

Hardly surprising, though it is something else to see it in black and white, over and over again, in cable after cable.

The political class is seen perennially knocking on the doors of American officials to share information and vie for support.. And American officials appear to have open-door access at the highest echelons of political and military power in the country.
For complete article, click here

Related - Additional Dawn stories:
Saudi Arabia, UAE financing extremism in south Punjab - By Qurat ul ain Siddiqui
Shahbaz was willing to have CJ removed after ‘face-saving’ restoration - By Madiha Sattar
Government official urged follow-up drone strikes - Dawn, May 20
The Establishment’s true lies (On Drones) - By Adnan Rehmat
WikiLeaks confirms nobody cares about you - by Shyema Sajjad
‘Armed gangs outnumber police in Karachi’ - Idrees Bakhtiar
'ANP leaders said military protected Haqqanis, other militants' - Madiha Sattar

From other Sources:
Is WikiLeaks missing the target?- Ayesha Siddiqa - Express Tribune
WikiLeaks Pakistan: Leaks Ahoy! - Adil Najam, All Things Pakistan

Thursday, May 19, 2011

How to Reform Pakistan?


Read Asia Society's Study group report 'Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future' by clicking here

Media commentaries on the report:

Policy package to arrest Pakistan decline proposed - By Masood Haider, Dawn, May 19, 2011

US and Pakistani experts lay out road map to establish stability and civilian rule in Pakistan - AFP, Washington Post, May 18, 2011

Experts offer road map for Pakistan stability - By Edith M. Lederer, Associated Press, May 18, 2011

Pakistan must focus on internal woes: scholars - The News, May 18, 2011

Military Budget in Pakistan should be made transparent - By Ayesha Tanzeem, Voice of America (Urdu), May 18, 2011

New report on Pakistan calls for expanding civilian control over state institutions - Associated Press of Pakistan

Pakistan 2020: Don’t Give Up On Pakistan - Pakistaniat.com, May 18
For more details including complete report, see: http://asiasociety/pakistan2020

Click here to watch the Asia Society launch event video - May 18, 2011 in NYC;

Click here for C-Span coverage of May 20 event at USIP in DC

Click here for VOA Urdu segment for Geo TV covering Asia Society launch event

Related: What Holbrooke Knew By  - New York Times, May 14, 2011

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

After Bin Laden, Don't give up on Pakistan: CNN Opinion article


Don't give up on Pakistan
By Hassan Abbas, Special to CNN, May 17, 2011
Editor's note: Hassan Abbas is a fellow at the Asia Society, director of the society's Pakistan 2020 Study Group, and a professor at Columbia University's South Asia Institute in New York. He is also a former senior adviser to the Pakistan government.

(CNN) -- In recent years Pakistan has stumbled from one crisis to another. Reeling from a deadly insurgency on the country's western border, its democratic government has struggled to establish even a modicum of stability. The people of Pakistan have shown amazing resilience even as they face rising terrorist activity, severe economic distress and perennial regional tensions.

That Osama bin Laden was hiding in plain sight in a compound less than a mile from Pakistan's national military academy is troubling, to say the least. If Pakistan's intelligence missed him completely, then it was a case of criminal negligence. If there was collusion of some sort, that will be an even more dire piece of news.

Yet Pakistan needs more attention and understanding from its most important ally, the United States, and from the rest of the world. Now is not the time for the world to turn its back on Pakistan.

Pragmatic and durable policy options aimed at improving Pakistan's prospects with a long-term vision are needed. A new Asia Society study group report attempts to provide them, drawing on the insights and guidance of 30 Pakistani and U.S. scholars, former senior officials and experts.

Some of the major recommendations of the report, titled "Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future," are:

• The process of democratization must continue, as there is no other way to expand civilian control over all institutions of the state. Pakistan has been ruled by generals for half its history -- another military takeover would set the country back yet again.

• Pakistan's military expenditures should be made more transparent, and there should be an increased civilian role in defense spending and security policy decisions.

• Independence of the judiciary -- a major Pakistani achievement in recent years -- needs to be further strengthened through respect for the separation of powers enshrined in the constitution and by providing financial autonomy to the country's judicial institutions.

• To fix the education system, spending on schools needs to rise from less than 1.5% to at least 4% of gross domestic product -- so girls don't drop out, boys don't end up in radical madrassas, and Pakistan overall can take part in Asia's boom.

• Along with proper upkeep of existing hydropower dams, more dams are needed to meet Pakistan's current and future energy requirements.

• Without a drastic overhaul of law enforcement, Pakistan's internal security situation could worsen further. Major financial investment is needed -- for example, half of U.S. funding allocated for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency support could be directed toward enhancing the forensic capabilities of law enforcement and supporting scientific investigations.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Asia Society Pakistan 2020 Report website: http://asiasociety.org/pakistan2020

Monday, May 16, 2011

Launch of the Asia Society Pakistan 2020 Study Group Report - May 18 in New York

Pakistani students sit on top of an overloaded mini bus as they ride home from school in Lahore on Sept. 8, 2009.
Pakistani students sit on top of an overloaded mini bus as they
ride home from school in Lahore (Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images)


Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future - Asia Society, May 18, 2011

In recent years, Pakistan has stumbled from one crisis to another. Insurgencies along its northwestern borders, regular terrorist attacks across the country, continued tensions with India, and the ongoing war in neighboring Afghanistan have all contributed to deepened instability in the country. Pakistan's transition from a near-decade long rule under a military dictatorship is slow and complicated as corruption and incompetence of the bureaucracy present major obstacles to progress and good governance.

In parallel, Pakistan's return to democracy, increasingly active civil society, relatively open media, and the rise of an independent higher judiciary provide glimmers of hope, though poor economic and development indicators coupled with worrying demographic trends continue to pose serious challenges to the well-being of millions of Pakistanis. Energy shortages have worsened in recent years, and the destruction caused by the floods of 2010 has exacerbated the country's many strains. Issues and questions related to the killing of Osama bin Laden are multifaceted and likely will have policy implications vis-Ć -vis Pakistan's relations with the U.S. and more broadly. In short, how Pakistan manages these challenges in the coming years holds great consequences for its future prospects.

The Asia Society is pleased to invite you to the launch of a new report, Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future, which presents recommendations focused on seven areas essential to realizing a sound future for the country by 2020: (1) strengthening democratic institutions; (2) supporting the rule of law; (3) improving human development and social services, especially in health and education; (4) developing the energy infrastructure; (5) assisting the 2010 flood victims in their recovery; (6) improving the internal security situation; and (7) advancing the peace process with India. Join members of the Study Group as they discuss how Pakistan can forge a path toward peace and stability in the coming decade and the future of U.S.-Pakistan relations in the aftermath of bin Laden's death. Copies of the Pakistan 2020 Study Group Report will be available at this event.
This event will feature the following speakers:

Hassan Abbas (Project Director), Bernard Schwartz Fellow, Asia Society; Quaid-i-Azam Professor, Columbia University's South Asia Institute
Najam Sethi, Editor-in-Chief,The Friday Times and Host, Aapas Ki Baat, Geo TV
Frank Wisner, Foreign Affairs Advisor, Patton Boggs LLP; former US Ambassador to India; former US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy
Shirin Tahir-Kheli, former Senior Advisor for Women's Empowerment, US Department of State; former Senior Director for Democracy, Human Rights and International Operations, National Security Council
Suzanne DiMaggio, Vice President, Global Policy Programs, Asia Society

8:00 – 8:30 am: Breakfast and registration
8:30 – 10:00 am: Panel discussion/Audience Q & A

For more information, please visit AsiaSociety.org/Pakistan2020

Can't make it to this program? Tune in to the free live video webcast on AsiaSociety.org/Live from 8:30 to 10:00 am ET. Online viewers are encouraged to submit their questions to moderator@asiasociety.org during the webcast.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Inside Pakistan's Parliament: ISI Briefing and discussion on US-Pak relations

Denying Links to Militants, Pakistan’s Spy Chief Denounces U.S. Before Parliament
By Jane Perlez, New York Times, May 14, 2011

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — In an unusual, and apparently heated, closed-door session of Parliament, Pakistan’s spy chief issued a rousing denunciation of the United States on Friday for its raid that killed Osama bin Laden and denied that Pakistan maintained any links with militant groups, according to lawmakers.

Rather, the spy chief, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, blamed an intelligence failure for the presence of Bin Laden in the city of Abbottabad, where a top military academy is located and where the leader of Al Qaeda was killed in an American raid on May 2.

General Pasha said he had offered his resignation twice to the leader of the army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. As his presence before Parliament made clear, it was not accepted.

The two generals were called before the extraordinary 11-hour session to answer to the failures of the military and the intelligence agency that allowed a team of American commandos to enter and leave Pakistan in a stealth helicopter operation undetected.       

Unusually vibrant criticism by some politicians and the Pakistani press after the raid compelled them to try to repair the reputation of the military and the intelligence agency, which the army controls.
But after recognizing the lapse, General Pasha rallied Parliament behind him, several legislators said, with strong criticisms of the United States that elicited thumps of approval from the chamber, including leading members of the Pakistan Peoples Party, the major partner in the coalition that the Obama administration supports.

At the end of the session, the leader of the opposition party, Pakistan Muslim League-N, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, who has been one of the most severe critics of the military since the raid, closed ranks behind the military. The session was organized so that “a positive message should go out to the masses,” Mr. Khan said.

A resolution that was passed at the session said Pakistan would revisit its relationship with the United States “with the view to ensuring Pakistan’s national interests were fully respected.”
In that vein, Pakistan’s chief spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, or ISI, will not allow the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct operations in Pakistan without the full knowledge of the ISI, General Pasha said.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Resolution condemning Abbottabad raid passed - The News
No repeat of bin Laden raid: parliament - Dawn
In-camera session: Govt asked to review relations with US - Express Tribune
ISI chief admits to intel failure, offers to resign - Times of India
Pakistan's parliament condemns U.S. raid, threatens sanctions - CNN
OBL fiasco: the buck stops with the military By Dr Mohammad Taqi - Daily Times

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Nawaz terms Abbottabad operation as failure of intelligence

Nawaz terms Abbottabad operation as failure of intelligence
The News, May 11, 2011

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Mian Nawaz Sharif has termed the Abbottabad operation, conducted by US SEALs and killed Osama bin Laden, as failure of intelligence, and demanded of the government to constitute a judicial commission to investigate into the saga, Geo News reported.

Addressing a press conference following party meeting here, Nawaz Sharif said judicial commission be given a 21-day timeframe to complete investigation and the facts be made public after the probe.

Former premier expressed concern over the Abbottabad operation, saying that it was a serious issue. He said no one would be allowed to use Pakistani soil for terrorism and extremism. He added that there is no place for terrorism in the country.

The world is raising fingers on Pakistan after the incident, PML-N leader said and added that armed forces have not given satisfactory answer. The Osama raid has affected the morale of armed forces.

Raymond Davis issue also showed that our matters are in the hands of spy agencies.

Today’s situation presents the scenario of 1971 and t seems that our defence system has become so weak, Nawaz stated.

Related:
Osama-Nawaz ties to haunt PML-N - Amir Mir, The News
Bin Laden operation: Nawaz Sharif calls for judicial probe - Express Tribune

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

The Haqqani Network in Kurram Agency in FATA


The Haqqani Network in Kurram: The Regional Implications of a Growing Insurgency

Jeffrey Dressler and Reza Jan:
May 2011 - A Report by the Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project

Executive Summary

This paper details the expansion of the Haqqani Network in Pakistan’s tribal areas through peace accords signed between rival Sunni and Shia factions in Kurram Agency, Pakistan. The peace accords brought nearly four years of continuous fighting to an end. Despite the appearance of legitimacy, the peace accords were manipulated by the Afghanistan-focused Haqqani Network to serve its own ends. In exchange for brokering the peace between Sunnis and Shias, the Haqqanis allegedly received the authority to operate through Shia-controlled terrain in central and upper Kurram which will aid their ongoing insurgency against Afghan and coalition forces throughout eastern Afghanistan. The Haqqanis have also demonstrated their growing power and influence in the Pakistani tribal region in areas beyond their historical stronghold of neighboring North Waziristan Agency.

1. The Haqqani Network is Afghanistan’s most capable and sophisticated insurgent network. The Haqqanis enjoy sanctuary in the tribal areas in Pakistan along the border with Afghanistan. With the backing of elements within the Pakistan security establishment, the Haqqanis have used their sanctuary in the North Waziristan Agency of Pakistan to operate across the border in southeastern Afghanistan.

2. In response to increased coalition activity against the Haqqani Network in both Pakistan (via drones) and Afghanistan (via Special Operations Forces), the Haqqanis have increasingly sought new Pakistani sanctuary and additional infiltration routes in order to continue to battle coalition forces for control of southeastern Afghanistan. The Haqqani Network has increasingly turned their attention to Kurram Agency over the past several years as a potential sanctuary for the Haqqanis and affiliated terrorist organizations.

3. Kurram is a region of special strategic importance to Afghanistan-focused insurgents. It served as a base to the Afghan Mujahideen during the war against the Soviet Union in the 1980s. Kurram remains coveted terrain today as it facilitates convenient access to several Afghan provinces and is also the shortest route to Kabul from anywhere in Pakistan.

4. In September 2010, reports surfaced that suggested the Haqqani Network was involved in peace negotiations between Kurram’s Shia and Sunni tribes. The Haqqani Network’s earliest reported involvement in Kurram peace talks dates back to early 2009, though they have been involved in fighting the Shia in Upper Kurram to facilitate access to Afghanistan since at least 2008.

5. In exchange for brokering the peace between Sunnis and Shias, the Haqqanis allegedly received the authority to operate through Shia-controlled terrain in central and upper Kurram. It is likely that other national and transnational terrorists who operate with the Haqqanis, such as al-Qaeda and Lashkar-e Taiba, will join them in Kurram.

6. The Haqqanis will likely relocate critical elements of the network to Kurram Agency. This will have the dual effect of relieving pressure on the Network from U.S. drone strikes in North Waziristan and allow for greater freedom of movement for its fighters, facilitators, and leaders.

7. The expansion of the Haqqani Network and affiliated terrorist groups will have negative consequences for security and stability, not just in Kurram, but in eastern Afghanistan and elsewhere in Pakistan, as it will become more difficult to identify, track, and strike national and international terrorist groups.

For complete paper, click here

Unanswered Questions about Bin Laden Operation and its Consequences

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


Related Articles:
Time for heads to roll - By Babar Sattar, Dawn
Pakistan and al-Qaeda’s Future - By Ahmed Rashid, New York Review of Books
Punishing Pakistan - By Anatol Lieven, The National Interest
The Forgotten History of the U.S. and Bin Ladin - By Paul Pillar, The Natioanl Interest

Monday, May 09, 2011

Understanding the Sectarian Conflict in Pakistan: Future Prospects

Shiism and Sectarian Conflict in Pakistan: Identity Politics, Iranian Influence, and Tit-for-Tat Violence
By Hassan Abbas, May 02, 2011, Combating Terrorism Centre at West Point

Executive Summary: Since its founding in 1947, Pakistan has been accustomed to conflict, but in recent years the regime in Islamabad had to contend with new waves of militancy, including violence that directly challenges the country’s leadership from within. Among groups involved in internal conflicts in Pakistan, Shia militant groups have received relatively scant attention, even though sectarian violence can have direct ramifications on the security of the country, and South Asia at large. This Occasional Paper examines the sectarian landscape in Pakistan, the growing potential for Shia-Sunni violence, and the implications of simmering sectarian tension for domestic Pakistani and regional security.

The Pakistani Shia community—the second largest in the world after that of Iran—has played an influential role in Muslim history and politics in the Indian sub-continent and in Pakistan in particular. Before the arrival of General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in 1977, the relationship between Pakistan’s Shia and Sunni communities was mostly amicable. But Pakistan’s fateful involvement in the Afghan-Soviet war of the 1980s, General Zia-ul-Haq’s controversial ‘Islamization’ policies, and a sense of Shia empowerment in the aftermath of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 had the combined effect of limiting the Shia’s freedom to practice their religion and challenging their loyalty to Pakistan. Those developments also contributed to the persecution of many Shia at the hands of a number of militant anti-Shia organizations. A minority of Shia groups turned to violence in order to defend the community, engaging in tit-for-tat terror attacks against militant Sunni groups. Henceforth, beginning in the late 1980s and continuing through the 1990s, Pakistan became the theater for a proxy Saudi-Iran war.

The September 11 attacks ameliorated the situation for the Shia, at least temporarily. In the aftermath of the attacks, Pakistan’s then-President, General Pervez Musharraf, banned both Sunni and Shia sectarian militant groups. Since Musharraf’s departure, some have expressed fears of a reemergence of anti-Shia militant groups, such as Sipah-i-Sahaba (SSP).One of the most vulnerable elements of the Shia community are the Shia tribes of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), where the Taliban and al-Qa’ida have been gaining ground in recent years, killing many Shia—especially in Parachinar (Kurram Agency). So far, the Shia response to these attacks has been relatively restrained, despite a number of Shia retaliatory strikes against local Taliban. Elsewhere, a banned Shia militant group called Sipah-e-Mohammad Pakistan (SMP) reportedly resurfaced in 2008 and 2009. 


Pakistani Shia perceive the rising trend of sectarian attacks as a major threat to their identity—a vulnerability compounded by the failure of traditional Shia political movements to provide effective leadership. Whether the Shia will adopt a militant posture as a response to anti-Shia violence remains an open question. Though Shia have likely internalized lessons from the past regarding the futility of militancy, a resurgence of the SMP or other Shia militant groups cannot be altogether ruled out, especially if outside support should become available.

Western analysts can no longer afford to ignore the growing potential for sectarian violence in Pakistan, for uncontrolled sectarian violence can destabilize Pakistan and the region at large. Internally, sectarian groups prefer to conduct their attacks in the Punjab, the center of gravity of the country’s military and political elite. Attacks against Pakistan’s Shia are also bound to have regional implications, since they can further stoke tensions between Pakistan and its neighbor Iran, a Shia-majority state.


For complete paper (pdf), click here

Sunday, May 08, 2011

Understanding the Post Bin Laden Scenario - Six Insightful Perspectives

The curious case of Osama bin Laden
By Pervez Hoodbhoy, Express Tribune, May 3, 2011

Osama bin Laden, the figurehead king of al Qaeda, is gone. His hosts are still rubbing their eyes and wondering how it all happened. Although scooped up from Pakistani soil, shot in the head and then buried at sea, the event was not announced by General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani or by President Asif Ali Zardari. Instead, it was the president of the United States of America who told the world that bin Laden’s body was in the custody of US forces.

Suggestions that Pakistan played a significant role ring hollow. President Obama, in his televised speech on May 1, said “our counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan helped lead us to bin Laden”. But no sooner had he stopped speaking that his top national security aides declared that the United States had not told Pakistani leaders about the raid ahead of time. Significantly, Obama did not thank Pakistan. An American official pointedly declared that the information leading to bin Laden’s killing was shared “with no other country” and this top secret operation was such that “only a very small group of people inside our own government knew of this operation in advance”.

Today, Pakistan’s embarrassment is deep. On numerous occasions, our military and civilian leaders had emphatically stated that bin Laden was not in Pakistan. Some suggested that he might be in Sudan or Somalia. Others hinted that he might already have died from a kidney ailment, or perhaps that he was in some intractable area, protected by nature and terrain and thus outside the effective control of the Pakistani state.

But then it turned out bin Laden was not hiding in some dark mountain cave in Waziristan. Instead, probably for at least some years, he had lived comfortably smack inside the modern, peaceful, and extraordinarily secure city of Abbottabad. Using Google Earth, one sees that the deceased was within easy walking distance of the famed Pakistan Military Academy at Kakul. It is here where General Kayani had declared on April 23 that “the terrorist’s backbone has been broken and inshallah we will soon prevail”.
For complete article, click here

Related - Varying Perspectives:
A Reporter’s Quest for Osama bin Laden, the Unholy Grail - New York Times
The Abbottabad Factor By Ali K Chishti - The Friday Times
Was catching Bin Laden worth the money? By Stephen Walt - Foreign Policy
Besieged, Not Fallen - Open Magazine
Noam Chomsky: My Reaction to Osama bin Laden’s Death - Guernica

Saturday, May 07, 2011

The Future of Al-Qaeda after Osama Bin Laden - NBC




For more clips of the documentary, click here

Who visited Osama's compound in Abottabad?

Probing Link to Bin Laden, U.S. Tells Pakistan to Name Agents
By and ISMAIL KHAN, New York Times, May 7, 2011

WASHINGTON — Pakistani officials say the Obama administration has demanded the identities of some of their top intelligence operatives as the United States tries to determine whether any of them had contact with Osama bin Laden or his agents in the years before the raid that led to his death early Monday morning in Pakistan.       

The officials provided new details of a tense discussion between Pakistani officials and an American envoy who traveled to Pakistan on Monday, as well as the growing suspicion among United States intelligence and diplomatic officials that someone in Pakistan’s secret intelligence agency knew of Bin Laden’s location, and helped shield him.

Obama administration officials have stopped short of accusing the Pakistani government — either privately or publicly — of complicity in the hiding of Bin Laden in the years after the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. One senior administration official privately acknowledged that the administration sees its relationship with Pakistan as too crucial to risk a wholesale break, even if it turned out that past or present Pakistani intelligence officials did know about Bin Laden’s whereabouts.       

Still, this official and others expressed deep frustration with Pakistani military and intelligence officials for their refusal over the years to identify members of the agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, who were believed to have close ties to Bin Laden. In particular, American officials have demanded information on what is known as the ISI’s S directorate, which has worked closely with militants since the days of the fight against the Soviet army in Afghanistan.

“It’s hard to believe that Kayani and Pasha actually knew that Bin Laden was there,” a senior administration official said, referring to Pakistan’s army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, and the ISI director-general, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha. But, added the official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivity of the issue, “there are degrees of knowing, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we find out that someone close to Pasha knew.”
.....
Pakistani investigators involved in piecing together Bin Laden’s life during the past nine years said this week that he had been living in Pakistan’s urban centers longer than previously believed.
Two Pakistani officials with knowledge of the continuing Pakistani investigation say that Bin Laden’s Yemeni wife, one of three wives now in Pakistani custody since the raid on Monday, told investigators that before moving in 2005 to the mansion in Abbottabad where he was eventually killed, Bin Laden had lived with his family for nearly two and a half years in a small village, Chak Shah Mohammad, a little more than a mile southeast of the town of Haripur, on the main Abbottabad highway.

In retrospect, one of the officials said, this means that Bin Laden left Pakistan’s rugged tribal region sometime in 2003 and had been living in northern urban regions since then. American and Pakistani officials had thought for years that ever since Bin Laden disappeared from Tora Bora in Afghanistan, he had been hiding in the tribal regions straddling the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

A former Pakistani official noted that Abbottabad, the site of the Pakistani equivalent of the West Point military academy, is crawling with security guards and military officials who established a secure cordon around the town, raising questions of how the officials could not know there was a suspicious compound in their midst.

“If he was there since 2005, that is too long a time for local police and intelligence not to know,” said Hassan Abbas, a former Pakistani official now teaching at Columbia University.

Mr. Abbas said there was a tight net of security surrounding Abbottabad because Pakistani officials were concerned about terrorist attacks on sensitive military installations in the area.

For complete article, click here

Related:



For ABC video click: How Obama survived for so long - ABC
A catch-up phone call, satellite image led to Osama - The Economic Times

Friday, May 06, 2011

"Mother of all embarrassments" for Pakistan

Main ImageProperty records suggest another alias for bin Laden aide
In the flurry of questions in the aftermath of the U.S. operation that killed Osama bin Laden, one line of inquiry has centered on the compound where bin Laden was found. Who in Pakistan knew he was living there? How did the al Qaeda mastermind spend seven years in safety, less than a mile away from the Pakistan army's elite officer academy? Who helped him hide in plain sight?

Now records of the land in Abbottabad on which the compound was built, obtained by the Associated Press, identify the man who bought the property. In a series of methodical transactions beginning in 2004, the buyer is listed as Mohammed Arshad. And the records, combined with neighbors' and U.S. officials' accounts of the men who lived with bin Laden in the compound, suggest that Arshad was probably another alias for the Kuwaiti-born Pakistani courier for bin Laden known to the CIA for years as Abu Ahmad al-Kuwaiti. In Abbottabad, the man was apparently known as Arshad Khan.

For complete article, click here
Related Articles:
Bin Laden hunters used secret CIA facility in Pakistan - Seattle Times/Washington Post
Pentagon Breaks Silence on Pakistani Role - NYT
Special Report: Why the U.S. Mistrusts Pakistan's Spy Agency - Reuters
Bali bomber captured down the road of compound - Telegraph
In Abbottabad, the Failures and Resiliency of Pakistan - Atlantic Monthly
Life after bin Laden: US-Pakistan relations - Australian Radio

FROM PAKISTAN PRESS:
Kayani orders probe into intel failure, seeks cut in US personnel - Dawn
The emperors’ clothes - Dawn
The hornet is dead, near the nest - Daily Times
Rift with Zawahiri led to Bin Laden killing: Saudi paper - Express Tribune
Mother of all embarrassments - The News

Wednesday, May 04, 2011

After Bin Laden: A Turning Point in U.S.- Muslim World Relations?

Bin Laden and the Arab Spring: A Turning Point in U.S.-Muslim World Relations?
Coauthored by John L. Esposito and Sheila B. Lalwani
Huffington Post, May 4, 2011

The death of Osama bin Laden like the Arab Spring signals a possible turning point in the Arab and Muslim world and an opportunity to strengthen U.S.-Muslim world relations.
The killing of bin Laden in Abbottabad is a major psychological blow to al Qaeda, who lost a charismatic leader, and global terrorists for whom he symbolized their militant jihad. It does not end the transnational threat. As President Barack Obama has stated, "There's no doubt that al Qaeda will continue to pursue attacks against us. We must -- and we will -- remain vigilant at home and abroad." At the same time, significant change has occurred.

In recent years, al Qaeda and other terrorists have been weakened by counterterrorism efforts not only by the U.S. and Europe but also by Muslim countries. Indeed, as the Gallup World Poll indicated, Muslims globally, like majorities in the West, share a common fear and concern about the threat of religious extremism and terrorism to their families and societies. From Egypt and Algeria to Iraq and Pakistan, terrorist attacks and suicide bombings have slaughtered innocent Muslim civilians.
While terrorist groups, a fraction of 1% of Muslims, are able to appeal to and recruit from small pockets of Muslims, they have failed to inspire a mass movement or topple oppressive governments. In contrast, as recent uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and Yemen and calls for democratic reforms Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Oman have demonstrated, broad based non-violent opposition has proven an effective mode of resistance and regime change.

The challenge for American and EU policymakers today is to construct a new narrative and framework to replace a failed paradigm and conventional wisdom, based on support for authoritarian regimes and the "democratic exceptionalism" in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Policymakers must move beyond policies that equated protection of national interests with the stability and security of regimes and were driven more by fear of the unknown than support for Western principles of self-determination, democracy and human rights. This policy, while attractive to authoritarian allies and their entrenched elites, fed anti-Americanism and fears of Western intervention, invasion, occupation and dependency.

For complete article, click here

Monday, May 02, 2011

End of Al Qaeda? : What all this means for the US-Pakistan Relations

Bin Laden's Death Will Prove 'Demoralizing' to Al Qaeda
Hassan Abbas, Asia Society, May 2, 2011

The world is indeed a better place without Osama bin Laden. His elimination is historic without an iota of doubt. There may be a brief upsurge in terrorist activity around the world as a reaction from members of Al Qaeda and its affiliates, but overall his death will prove demoralizing for the terrorist group. He had become a symbol of "global terror" and as such bringing him to justice was critical.

It is yet another question whether his ideas have been buried and drowned with his body. Although he apparently was no longer actively leading the terror outfit, he inspired and radicalized so many around the world — especially in many Muslim states. But it is important to acknowledge as President Obama so aptly said: "Bin Laden was not a Muslim leader; he was a mass murderer of Muslims."

However, the battle against violence and extremism is by no means over, and this is especially relevant for Pakistan and Afghanistan. The fact that Osama was hiding in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad (incidentally where I lived and studied in 1983-85), very close to country's premier military training academy for officers, raises many serious questions. The extent of Pakistani cooperation is not very clear yet — though there was some given, which President Obama acknowledged in his short speech.

Ideally, a person such as Osama bin Laden should have been taken out a long time ago, and there are many lessons to be learned here — the most basic one is: effective counterterrorism requires global cooperation, persistence and focus.

Hassan Abbas is an Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Fellow and the Quaid-i-Azam Chair Professor at Columbia University. He is project director of Asia Society's Pakistan 2020 Study Group, which aims to assess the political, social and economic challenges faced by Pakistan today.

Also See: Bin Laden Death Raises Threat of Terrorist Attacks, Doubts About Pakistan
For more Asia Society coverage, click here

Latest: How Osama was taken out?

Top US Officials Release Details About Raid
WJBF News, May 2, 2011

We are learning new information about the military operation that ultimately killed Osama Bin Laden.

During a conference call early Monday morning Michael Vickers, the Assistant Secretary of Defense, said the small U.S. team that carried out the strike spent less that 40 minuets inside the compound where Bin Laden was hiding.

Vickers said Bin Laden, and at least three other people died in the raid, one of those killed believed to be Bin Laden’s adult son.

During the mission one of the four United States military helicopter went down due to mechanical problems, according to Vickers, that chopper was destroyed by the crew.

The call also revealed new details about the compound where Osama Bin Laden was found. Officials said the facility was extremely unique, about eight times larger than the houses around it, and had no phone or internet connectivity.

Detective Work on Courier Led to Breakthrough on Bin Laden
By MARK MAZZETTI and HELENE COOPER
NYT, May 2, 2011

A trusted courier of Osama bin Laden’s whom American spies had been hunting for years was finally located in a compound 35 miles north of the Pakistani capital, close to one of the hubs of American counterterrorism operations. The property was so secure, so large, that American officials guessed it was built to hide someone far more important than a mere courier.

What followed was eight months of painstaking intelligence work, culminating in a helicopter assault by American military and intelligence operatives that ended in the death of Bin Laden on Sunday and concluded one of history’s most extensive and frustrating manhunts.

American officials said that Bin Laden was shot in the head after he tried to resist the assault force, and that one of his sons died with him.

For nearly a decade, American military and intelligence forces had chased the specter of Bin Laden through Pakistan and Afghanistan, once coming agonizingly close and losing him in a pitched battle at Tora Bora, in the mountains of eastern Afghanistan. As Obama administration officials described it, the real breakthrough came when they finally figured out the name and location of Bin Laden’s most trusted courier, whom the Qaeda chief appeared to rely on to maintain contacts with the outside world.

Detainees at the prison at GuantĆ”namo Bay, Cuba, had given the courier’s pseudonym to American interrogators and said that the man was a protĆ©gĆ© of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the confessed mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks.

American intelligence officials said Sunday night that they finally learned the courier’s real name four years ago, but that it took another two years for them to learn the general region where he operated.

Still, it was not until August when they tracked him to the compound in Abbottabad, a medium-sized city about an hour’s drive north of Islamabad, the capital.

C.I.A. analysts spent the next several weeks examining satellite photos and intelligence reports to determine who might be living at the compound, and a senior administration official said that by September the C.I.A. had determined there was a “strong possibility” that Bin Laden himself was hiding there.

For complete article, click here
Related:
One Twitter User Reports Live From Osama Bin Laden Raid - Mashable
A Joy Tempered by Reflection - WSJ
Osama Bin Laden death: Political implications - Washington Post

Osama Bin Laden - The Most Wanted Face of Terrorism in Dead

The Most Wanted Face of Terrorism
By KATE ZERNIKE and MICHAEL T. KAUFMAN
Nw York Times, May 2, 2011

Osama bin Laden, who was killed in Pakistan on Sunday, was a son of the Saudi elite whose radical, violent campaign to recreate a seventh-century Muslim empire redefined the threat of terrorism for the 21st century.

With the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001, Bin Laden was elevated to the realm of evil in the American imagination once reserved for dictators like Hitler and Stalin. He was a new national enemy, his face on wanted posters, gloating on videotape, taunting the United States and western civilization.

“Do you want bin Laden dead?” a reporter asked President George W. Bush six days after the 9/11 attacks.

“I want him — I want justice,” the president answered. “And there’s an old poster out West, as I recall, that said, ‘Wanted: Dead or Alive.’”

It took nearly a decade before that quest finally ended in Pakistan with the death of bin Laden during a confrontation with American forces who attacked a compound where officials said he had been hiding.

The manhunt was punctuated by what culminated in a December 2001 battle at an Afghan mountain redoubt called Tora Bora, near the border of Pakistan, where Bin Laden and his allies were hiding. Despite days of pounding by American bombers, bin Laden escaped. For more than nine years afterward, he remained an elusive, shadowy figure frustratingly beyond the grasp of his pursuers and thought to be hiding somewhere in Pakistan and plotting new attacks.

For complete article, click here
Related:
Bin Laden’s Death is a Historic Triumph, But What Does it Really Mean for al-Qaida? - National Journal
Osama's son also killed in the aid - Reuters
WikiLeaks reveal bin Laden's post-9/11 movements - AFP
Osama Bin Laden Killed in U.S. Operation - Bloomberg
Full Remarks: President Obama on the Death of Osama Bin Laden - TIME