Friday, December 31, 2010

Special Operations in Pakistan ?: Alternate Scenarios

A March of Folly in Pakistan
By ANATOL LIEVEN, New York Times, December 29, 2010

LONDON — News reports that senior U.S. commanders in Afghanistan want to expand Special Operations ground raids into Pakistan’s tribal areas may well have been leaked deliberately in order to increase pressure on Pakistani military leaders to take tougher action against Taliban fighters seeking refugee in their country.

However, if American generals genuinely want to increase such raids, then it needs to be stated emphatically that this is not just a lunatic idea, but one that demonstrates how far senior American (and British) commanders have become obsessed with the war in Afghanistan at the expense of the struggle against terrorism as a whole.

Pakistan, with its huge population (around 200 million), large army, nuclear weapons, extensive extremist networks and diaspora in the West, is a far more important country than Afghanistan and presents a vastly greater potential threat of anti-Western terrorism. Moreover, the one thing that would certainly lead to the collapse of the Pakistani state and an immense surge in extremist and terrorist strength would be if the Pakistani Army were to split and parts of it were to mutiny against the alliance with America. U.S. ground raids into Pakistan would risk precisely this disastrous outcome. In fact, after all the talk about the danger of state collapse and Islamist revolution in Pakistan, it would be the U.S. itself that would bring these events about.

Advocates of ground raids seem to think that they are merely an extension of the current campaign of drone attacks on targets in Pakistan’s tribal areas, which have caused great resentment and have had very doubtful success.

Pakistani officers from captain to lieutenant general have told me that the entry of U.S. ground forces into Pakistan in pursuit of the T
aliban and Al Qaeda is by far the most dangerous scenario for both Pakistan-U.S. relations and the unity of the Pakistani Army. As one retired general explained, drone attacks, though ordinary officers and soldiers find them humiliating, are not a critical issue because the Pakistani military cannot do anything about them.

“U.S. ground forces inside Pakistan are a different matter because the soldiers can do something about them,” he said. “They can fight. And if they don’t fight, they will feel utterly humiliated before their wives, mothers, children. It would be a matter of honor, which as you know is a tremendous thing in our society. These men have sworn an oath to defend Pakistani soil. So they would fight. And if the generals told them not to fight, many of them would mutiny, starting with the Frontier Corps.”

For complete article, click here

Princess Mussarat Ahmed Zeb displays a piece of Swati embroidery
Related:



The Future of Black Law in Pakistan

EDITORIAL: The black law is here to stay
Daily Times, December 31, 2010

In an effort to appease the extreme religious right, the government has taken a regressive step backwards in a move that will cost the nation dearly in terms of extremism, intolerance and the abuse of its citizens, especially its minorities. Religious Affairs Minister Khursheed Shah has categorically stated in the National Assembly that no amendments and no repeal of the dreaded Blasphemy Law are contemplated. After months of heated debate on this issue for the government to dash all hope is an eye-opener. It has opened the nation’s eyes to the blatant disregard the government has for its minorities and it has alerted the citizens to the fact that the intolerant elements of society have gained yet another victory. However, one would like to remind the government of a few sharp facts. If our representatives think that the shutter-down strike called by the Tahafooz-e-Namoos-e-Risalat today will be abandoned just like that and that the JUI-F will be lured into rejoining the federal government, they have another think coming. All they have managed to do by officially stating that the Blasphemy Law will not undergo any repeal or amendment is increase the power of hostile extremists in our society who are baying for the blood of a Christian woman (Aasia Bibi) because of an alleged slight on the person of the Holy Prophet (PBUH). Sadly, the government has served to only defend the self-proclaimed guardians of Islam and not Islam itself, which is a religion of tolerance and peace.

Mr Khursheed Shah has also said that the government will ensure the protection of minorities from any abuse of the Blasphemy Law. One begs to ask: will the government continue to protect the minorities like it has done so far, which is by doing nothing at all? The fact that the minister has failed to outline any method or plan to protect the very vulnerable minorities in Pakistan from extremists clearly indicates the lack of any real formulation for minority welfare. All they have succeeded in doing is giving more leeway to the Islamists to wreak further havoc on the minorities they know will never be protected by the state.

The government has also abandoned a rare voice of sanity in this growing cacophony of madness. MNA Sherry Rehman has tabled a private member’s bill to introduce amendments to the black law. However, the government has said that it will not support this effort. Also, as a response to Sherry Rehman’s bill, a committee has been set up to scrutinise any private members’ bills. This is tantamount to preventing any private members’ bills from being moved. To vet all such initiatives is akin to abolishing this inherent right of members of parliament — all this to appease a hate-mongering clergy.

Let us not live within the obscure four walls of fiction. The reality is that the extreme right is going to ride over the wishes of the people. This apprehension is not without substance. The Federal Shariat Court (FSC) has recently struck down four clauses of the Women’s Protection Act. The draconian Hudood Ordinance and the 2nd Constitutional Amendment, which ousted Ahmedis from the Muslim community, are still on the statute books. But even this will seem like a picnic if the misplaced attitude of placating the extremist religious right is not reversed.

For completer editorial, click here
Related:
Sherry Rehman: "I believe the repeal option is still the best one, but…" - Jinnah Institute
The non-reform of Pakistan's blasphemy laws - Open Democracy
Pakistan on strike against bill to amend blasphemy law - BBC
Pakistan: The Blasphemous Use Of Blasphemy Law - Global Voice
Pakistanis Rally in Support of Blasphemy Law - New York Times
The true blasphemers by Mahjabeen Islam - Daily Times

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Khaki puppetry in Pakistan: In the Light of Wikileaks Evidence

Khaki puppetry
Babar Sattar, The News, December 28, 2010

Disclosure of information is a good thing not because it is an end in itself but because free flow of information results in greater transparency, debate and accountability. Frequently disclosure of information only confirms what people already know. But it is significant because once backed by facts, conjecture becomes reality. And while no one ought to be held to account on the basis of speculation alone, can an entire nation look the other way when stark facts stare it in the eye? In this regard our response to Wikileaks has been extremely instructive. The ruling elite - civil and military - has conveniently responded to the former US envoy’s cables simply with denial. What they are denying is unclear. Are they saying that the reported conversations never took place, or that they do not reflect the context and thus the whole truth? Or do they believe that Shaggy’s “wasn’t me” is a perfectly legitimate response even in statecraft whenever confronted with incriminating facts?

Would our civil and military leaders have us believe that the former US ambassador was a fabler deliberately misleading her bosses in Washington for the fun of it or that the Wikileaks saga is a mischievous US conspiracy to make our rulers look bad in order to lower them further in public esteem? Equally disturbing has been our collective apathy to digging deeper and confronting the truth. Are we not vying for complete disclosure and accountability because we are now accustomed to leaders being caught with their pants down and getting away Scott-free, or do they manage to get away because of our exhibition of expediency, tolerance or even timidity in face of such unsavory conduct? The overall media response to Wikileaks has also been wanting in a fundamental way: the reporting has been partial in that it has beat down on politicians for nauseating sycophancy and shameful self-interest, without proportionately highlighting and scrutinising the role of the military and especially the army chief that might have waded into the domain of illegality.

The one unmistakable takeaway from Wikileaks is that the already hazardous civil-military imbalance in Pakistan has been further aggravated over the last couple of years. Let us address matters pertaining to propriety, policy and legality in that order. For propriety alone, we don’t even need the help of Julian Assange. The army chief might be the most powerful man in the country, but the protocol list doesn’t reflect that. But we are now past pretensions. Recently, the military guard detailed for the army chief’s security forced two federal ministers to wait for the cavalcade of the army chief to pass through (along with other civilians used to the inconvenience) and interestingly it was the PPP parliamentarians loath to discuss the issue when raised by the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly. It is obvious that neither the ruling party nor the army high command feels the need to prop-up the fiction of civilian control of the military.

For complete article, click here
Related:
Kayani behind conflict on Kerry-Lugar bill: Wikileaks - Dawn
WikiLeaks: Kayani is no Musharraf - Express Tribune
Gen Kayani wanted to kick Zardari out: WikiLeaks - The News

Muslim Women in America


Muslim Women Gain Higher Profile in U.S.
By BRIAN KNOWLTON, New York Times, December 27, 2010

ATLANTA — Around Sept. 11, 2001, not long after she founded the Islamic Speakers Bureau of Atlanta, Soumaya Khalifa heard from a group whose name sounded like “Bakers Club.” It wanted a presentation.

The address was unfamiliar, but she went anyway. The group turned out to be the Bickerers Club, whose members love to argue. Islam was their topic du jour and their venue was a tavern. Ms. Khalifa laughed, and made the best of it.

Ms. Khalifa, who was born in Egypt and raised in Texas, wears a head scarf but also juggles, comfortably, the demands of American suburbia: crowded schedule, minivan and all.

She is one of a type now found in most sizable U.S. cities: vocal Muslim women wary of the predominantly male leadership of their community and increasingly weary of suspicions of non-Muslims about Islam.

These women have achieved a level of success and visibility unmatched elsewhere. They say they are molded by the freedoms of the United States — indeed, many unabashedly sing its praises — and by the intellectual ferment stirred when American-born and immigrant Muslims mix.

“What we’re seeing now in America is what has been sort of a quiet or informal empowerment of women,” said Shireen Zaman, executive director of the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, a nonprofit research institute founded after the 2001 attacks to provide research on American Muslims. “In many of our home countries, socially or politically it would’ve been harder for Muslim women to take a leadership role. It’s actually quite empowering to be Muslim in America.”

As Najah Bazzy, a American-born nurse and founder of several charities in Michigan, put it: “Yeah I’m Arab, yeah I’m very American, and yeah I’m very Islamic, but you put those things in the blender and I’m no longer just a thing. I’m a new thing.”

It is not always easy. Several of the Muslim women interviewed for this article said they had been the object of abusive letters, e-mails or blog posts.

For complete article, click here

Related:
A Daughter of Detroit by Najah Bazzy - PBS
Profile of Shireen Zamn - ISPU
Profile of Soumaya Khalifa - The Islamic Speakers Bureau of Atlanta
Finding the Prophet in his People by Ingrid Mattson - PBS
Azizah Magazine - A magazine for Muslim women
For picture source, click here

Monday, December 27, 2010

Remembering Benazir Bhutto

Remembering a Legend
Yusuf Raza Gilani, Express Tribune & The News, December 27, 2010

December 27 is a day of immense grief and national tragedy because it was, three years ago to this day, when Pakistan in particular and the world in general lost a leader of high stature in the person of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto. It also conveys the message in no uncertain terms that even in her martyrdom Shaheed Benazir Bhutto continues to be the symbol of the federation of Pakistan that she was in her life.

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto’s life is a classic study of courage, commitment towards people’s welfare, and steel-like determination to accomplish the goals she set for herself. She took over the mantle of leadership of the Pakistan People’s Party from her illustrious father Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the most trying circumstances. She then carried forward his mission and braved the oppression of a dictatorial regime for eleven years with utmost courage. She continued to inspire millions and kept their hopes alive during this dictatorship. It is the sole honour of the PPP that it has its roots in every section of society – be they workers, labourers, peasants, students, lawyers, teachers, intellectuals and women.

Due to her political wisdom and leadership, Shaheed Benazir Bhutto made her mark in the world politics. She was an embodiment of courage and endurance who did not allow her personal tragedies to stand in the way of her larger commitment towards her people.

For complete article, click here
More:
Benazir lived and died for Pakistan by Bashir Riaz, Daily Times
Gone? Finished? - The News
BB murder case confessions: Army denies any knowledge - Express Tribune
No reason to celebrate - Huma Yusuf, Dawn
'Bhutto': For Pakistan's Heroine, A Hagiography - NPR
Bhutto: Rebranding a Legacy - The Harvard Crimson, 2008
Why Bhutto’s killer can’t be taken to task by Amir Mir, The News

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Pakistan - Jinnah's Dream


Lost Vision
Editorial, The Express Tribune, December 25th, 2010

Let us imagine that Mohammad Ali Jinnah were to step into the country he founded today, on his 134th birth anniversary, and walk down the streets of Karachi, the city he made his home. What he found would almost certainly shock him: slogans suggesting ethnic discord scratched out on graffiti-covered walls, drug users gathering at chosen spots to inject heroin into veins, a shattered civic infrastructure and an atmosphere permeated with intense political and sectarian tensions. Of course, he would encounter similar horrors in other places: from the Taliban in the north, to flood victims in the south, existing on the shores of a sea made up of mass despondency as a consequence of unemployment, inflation and social inequality. We can only imagine his feelings and his thoughts.

Quite obviously this was not the vision Jinnah had for the country he had carved onto the map in 1947, after three decades of assiduous effort. As Pakistan marked its first year in existence, Jinnah, on August 14, 1948, had said in a message to the people of Pakistan that the foundations of a state had been laid down for them and it was now up to them to build on these as quickly and as well as they could. The Quaid-i-Azam died less than a month later. But we wonder if much thought has been given to why the construction on the foundations he put down has been so shoddy. Could we really not have done better?

Jinnah had clearly articulated during his lifetime a desire for a state that was democratic, secular in orientation and just to all its people. His own death, barely a year after Pakistan came into being, was of course one factor in the failure to establish such a Republic. The unifying force that Jinnah offered was too quickly lost. Failings by leaders and faults in policy contributed to the problems that quickly crept up. But is this adequate explanation for why we have strayed so far from the path chalked out by Jinnah? Has enough been done over the years to demarcate it again so it can be followed? These are questions we need to ponder in some depth as we observe Mr Jinnah’s birth anniversary. The answers could help us determine our future.

Related:
Goal for minorities by I A Rahman - Dawn
Jinnah’s dream now a nightmare by Wajahat Latif - The Express Tribune
Will The Real Mr. Jinnah Please Identify Himself - Adil Najam, Pakistaniat.com
For details about Pakistan's founding father Mohammad Ali Jinnah, click here, here and here

“It is important that we reach out in solidarity with those affected by extreme poverty”: ZinĆ©dine Zidane

More than 30,000 turn out to support Pakistan, Haiti
DAWN.COM, December 15, 2010
UNDP press release

Athens, Greece: More than 33,000 football fans demonstrated their support tonight for the people of Pakistan and Haiti by filling the Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus, Greece, to watch top players reach a 2-2 draw in the eighth Match Against Poverty.

As in previous years, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and two of its goodwill ambassadors, ZinƩdine Zidane and Ronaldo, organized the match in support of the Millennium Development Goals which seek to reduce poverty and improve livelihoods worldwide by the year 2015.

This year, the host football club, Olympiacos, invited more than 50 players from teams across the world to compete in the star-studded match broadcast live in more than 30 countries.

“It is important that we reach out in solidarity with those affected by extreme poverty,” said Zidane at a press conference preceding the match. “We cannot allow the people of Haiti and Pakistan to suffer in silence. Through this match we hope to let the world know we’re in this together.”

For complete article, click here

ruth pfau afp543 Pakistanā€™s ā€˜Mother Teresaā€™ on floods frontline
Pakistan’s ‘Mother Teresa’ on floods frontline
Dawn, December 25, 2010 (AFP)

KARACHI: Every morning Ruth Pfau stands short and frail before a tall crucifix in Karachi’s St Patrick’s Cathedral. She bows her head, shuts her eyes, places her right hand on her heart and prays.

It is the beginning of another long day for the 81-year-old nun known locally as Pakistan’s Mother Teresa, who has spent half a century caring for some of the country’s poorest and most ostracised people.

Pakistan is alleged to be one of the most dangerous countries in the world, where Washington says al Qaeda is based. Its northwest mountains border Afghanistan and are subject to US drone strikes and Pakistani military operations.

Bombings have killed 4,000 people in three years, kidnappings are common, militant groups violently opposed to all but their extremist interpretation of Islam control significant territory.

Sister Pfau, who needs a stick to walk, admits some disquiet over security, but says nothing would stop her serving people in distress.

“I find no difficulties even in the northwestern tribal areas, where most people know me because of my work and never create any hurdle when I go there to serve them,” she said, adjusting her white scarf on her silver-hair.

It was after the horrors of World War II in her native Germany that she decided to dedicate her life to serving humanity, become a doctor and join the Daughters of the Heart of Mary order, founded during the French Revolution.

For complete article, click here
Related:
Is the flood over in Pakistan?  - The News
The glass is half full: Positive aspects of floods - Tribune Express

Friday, December 24, 2010

How to Understand Pakistan's Counterterrorism Strategy ? - Ayesha Siddiqa's Insights

Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Strategy: Separating Friends from Enemies
Ayesha Siddiqa, Washington Quartely, Winter 2011, Volume 34, No. 1

On October 1, 2010, the government of Pakistan shut down the supply route for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) after an incursion into Pakistan’s territory by NATO forces, killing 16 Pakistanis in collateral damage. Two days later, militants torched 28 NATO supply trucks near Shikarpur in the southern province of Sindh. These events reflect the inherent tension both in Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy and in its relationship with the United States and its allies in fighting the war in Afghanistan. The future of U.S. military operations in South Asia depends on the convergence of policies between the United States and Pakistan, but since the war began in 2001, interpreting Islamabad’s counterterrorism policy has been difficult.

Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy in Afghanistan is rife with inherent contradictions, caught between an inclination to fight militant forces and yet having to partner with some to strengthen its future bargaining position. The policy flows out of Pakistan’s multiple strategic requirements: its need to remain engaged with the United States, to save itself from the Taliban attacking the Pakistani state, and to fight India’s growing presence in Afghanistan. Caught between these three issues, Islamabad’s counterterrorism policy and objectives continue to lack clarity. At best, the policy illustrates the tension between Islamabad’s need to protect itself against an internal enemy and its sensitivity toward the external threat from India.

The primary flaw of Pakistan’s counterterrorism policy, however, is that it is defined and driven by the military and that institution’s strategic objectives. It is easier to use the military option than to address the problem of changing the basic narrative and socioeconomic conditions that drive militancy in the first place. The need to create an alternative political narrative and change the mindset in Pakistan to address those socioeconomic conditions is a far more critical issue, which receives less attention than it deserves.

For complete article (pdf), click here

Related: Various Perspectives:
Caught in the Muddle: America’s Pakistan Strategy by Paul Staniland
“Militancy in Pakistan’s Borderlands: Implications for the Nation and for Afghan policy' - Hassan Abbas, Century Foundation paper
North Waziristan is a bad idea - Ejaz Haider, Friday Times
Pakistan's Military Shapes Relationship With U.S - NPR
FO reminds Washington of ‘red lines’ - Dawn

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

How to Deal with Pakistan?


Dealing With Pakistan
By H.D.S. GREENWAY, New York Times, December 21, 2010

’Tis the season to bash Pakistan. That’s the message that leapt from the Obama administration’s Afghan strategy review last week. It’s Pakistan fault that we Americans are not winning the war, so we better get tough with Pakistan.

We “will continue to insist to Pakistani leaders that terrorists safe havens within their borders must be dealt with,” said President Obama. Others, such as retired Gen. Jack Keane, put it more bluntly: “Don’t just put a finger in their chest, put a fist in their chest.” But the message is the same — “U.S. Will Widen War On Militants Inside Pakistan,” headlined the New York Times. “Pentagon Planning More Attacks With Drones And Commandos.”

There can be no doubt of what the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, called — in Pentagon-speak — “the criticality of Pakistan in terms of overall success.” But is putting a fist in Pakistan’s chest really going to solve the “criticality” issue?

Pakistan is already permitting drone attacks on its territory — attacks that kill as many or more civilians than militants. It has also allowed limited U.S. special operations within Pakistan. Eighty percent of U.S. war material passes through Pakistan. Put a fist in Pakistan’s chest, as we did in September when a cross-border operation killed three Pakistani soldiers, and you may see some of this support dry up.

I recently drove past the hulks of burned out oil tankers by the side of the Grand Trunk Road headed to the Khyber Pass, torched by militants when Pakistan temporarily halted the convoys in retaliation for our incursion.

One might ask General Keane: What is it you don’t understand about closing the Khyber Pass? What chance would you give either the short-term or long-term sustainability of our Afghan effort without Pakistani cooperation? One hundred dollars worth of gasoline passing through Pakistan costs one thousand to ship though Central Asia.

So let’s stop all this talk of cleaning out the sanctuaries ourselves if the Pakistanis won’t. The United States doesn’t need to get involved militarily in another Muslim country.

The U.S. is extremely unpopular as it is with the Pakistani public. Do we really think we could prevail in the mountains of the Northwest Frontier with the whole countryside up in arms against us? If you really want to destabilize a nuclear-armed Pakistan, that would be the best way to do it.

Pakistanis feel, with some justification, that they are being scapegoated. “I’m not saying we are entirely innocent,” a member of Pakistan’s intelligence service told me, but after nine years of failing in Afghanistan it is easy to “put all the blame on someone else.”

Or as Lt. Gen. Asif Malik, commander of the Pakistani Army 11th Corps responsible for the tribal territories, told me: Organizations such as the Haqqani group are not completely dependent on Pakistani territory. They, and the rest of the Taliban, can operate quite well in Afghanistan without sanctuaries — to which the deterioration of security in northern Afghanistan attests.

For complete article, click here

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

America's Tikka Diplomacy

COMMENT: America’s ‘tikka diplomacy’ — Cameron Munter
Daily Times, December 22, 2010

As diplomats, we do not just work in Pakistan — we live here too. Whether eating the food, enjoying the music, or appreciating the beautiful landscape and wonderfully rich art and culture, we seek to embrace life here.

Last week, my wife Marilyn and I visited Lahore for the second time since we arrived in Pakistan in October. During our trip, we met provincial government officials, opened a new Apple retail store, and talked to journalists about US-Pakistan relations. In addition, we met women civil society leaders at the Human Rights Commission, where we discussed gender issues in Pakistan, as part of the United Nations’ 16-day campaign against gender-based violence.

And, as your media noted, we also sat down at a desi restaurant to sample some of the traditional food for which Lahore is justly famous. We enjoyed an open-air breakfast of halva-puri, chanay, naan and lassi. Just like the dishes I grew up with in California, Punjabi cuisine is both spicy and delicious. Afterwards, an editorial in a national newspaper described our local meal as ‘Tikka Diplomacy’. I had not thought of it this way, but I think this is a great term. Let me tell you why.

As diplomats, we do not just work in Pakistan — we live here too. Whether eating the food, enjoying the music, or appreciating the beautiful landscape and wonderfully rich art and culture, we seek to embrace life here. Above all, we want to connect to Pakistanis as people, not just as diplomats. For that reason, Marilyn and I are very grateful to those Pakistanis who have opened their homes and hearts to us, especially during Eid, when we felt welcomed not as just guests, but as part of the family.

This kind of personal connection is vitally important. For that reason, we need to expand the direct interaction of Americans with Pakistanis, both here and in the US. I recall the insight of US Senator William Fulbright, who created the prestigious educational exchange programme that bears his name, that we need such personal interactions to “turn nations into people”.

We try to do this by practising ‘tikka diplomacy’ on many different levels. I am proud to say that our cultural and educational programmes in Pakistan are larger than anywhere else in the world. Every year, we sponsor the two-way travel of thousands of Pakistanis and Americans from every sector of society, provide English teaching for thousands of low-income children, and support cultural presentations in both countries. Showing our appreciation of and respect for Pakistan’s remarkable historic patrimony, we support archaeological research, organise conferences bringing American and Pakistani experts together, and fund the restoration of the Hazrat Jalal-ud-Din Surkhposh Bokhari shrine in Uch Sharif and the preservation of six others throughout Pakistan.

Americans are committed to improving the lives of Pakistanis from all walks of life, whether by helping new mothers get better healthcare by upgrading hospitals in Multan, teaching English to underprivileged girls and boys in Kohat and Dera Ismail Khan, or providing job seekers in Sindh with ways to improve their employment opportunities.

And while we will continue to work closely with the government of Pakistan, the core of our diplomacy aims to expand and strengthen the organic, people-to-people connections between our two nations. So we are proud to be ‘tikka diplomats’. I firmly believe that by getting our cultures and peoples to understand each other better, we will ensure that we move forward as true partners.

The writer is US Ambassador to Pakistan

The Future of Afghanistan?

Let's Un-Surge in Afghanistan
The current policy is diverting scarce military resources when threats like Iran and North Korea loom. We can prevent the return of al Qaeda with far fewer troops..
Richard Haas, Wall Street Journal, December 20, 2010
 
The Obama administration has completed its third review in two years of U.S. policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan. It argues the current approach is making progress, with success defined as building up Afghan national army and police forces until they can hold their own against a Taliban that is being weakened by ongoing combat. Some officials also believe that several more years of military pressure will persuade many Taliban fighters to switch sides rather than fight.

There are good reasons to be skeptical. While the situation on the ground in Afghanistan should improve in areas where U.S. military forces are operating in strength, the gains are likely to fade in the wake of their departure. The inherent weakness of central government institutions in Afghanistan, the tenacity of the Taliban and their ties to Afghanistan's many Pashtuns, and the reality that the Taliban will continue to enjoy a sanctuary in neighboring Pakistan all work against what we seek to achieve.

It is possible that doubters will be proven wrong. But the more fundamental problem with the policy depends less on its prospects than its costs and benefits. What the United States is doing in Afghanistan is not justified even if the policy succeeds.

The costs of the policy are considerable. There are just under 100,000 U.S. troops in the country. This year alone nearly 500 American soldiers have lost their lives. Ten times that many suffered casualties. It is costing U.S. taxpayers between $100 billion and $125 billion a year. The commitment is tying down a significant portion of military and intelligence assets, and it is absorbing significant time and energy of U.S. officials in Washington and abroad.

Arrayed against these costs are the stakes. It is essential that Afghanistan not again become a staging ground for terrorist attacks against the U.S., but that goal was largely achieved before the Obama administration tripled force levels. Should the Taliban re-establish cooperation with al Qaeda and groups like it, the U.S. could respond with a counterterrorist package of drones, special forces and training of local forces, much as it is does in Yemen and Somalia.

For complete article, click here

Relevant:

U.S. Military Seeks to Expand Raids in Pakistan - NYT
U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan - CFR
Midnight Moments: Exposing the Truth and Taking Full Responsibility for Afghanistan - By Rory Stewart, Huffington Post
Afghanistan guardedly backs U.S. review - Reuters
The Afghanistan Review - NYT Editorial
Foreign Policy: The Zombie War In Afghanistan by Stephen Walt - Foreign Policy
Roadmap for Peace in Afghanistan - By Khalid Aziz, Express Tribune
Time for negotiation in Afghanistan - Guardian
Afghanistan in Review - Afpak Channel, Foreign Policy
The Wayout of Afghanistan - Ahmed Rashid, New York Review of Books

Monday, December 20, 2010

Interesting Developments in Turkey


Turkey's leader asks Obama to thwart genocide vote
Washington Post, AP story, December 20, 2010

ANKARA, Turkey -- Turkey's prime minister has asked the U.S. president to prevent a possible House vote on a resolution declaring the World War I-era killings of Armenians a genocide.
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told parliament on Monday that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had sent U.S. President Barack Obama a letter asking he prevent the vote, saying it could damage ties between the two allies.

Davutoglu said: "we cannot allow the resolution to hang over Turkish-US ties like a Sword of Damocles."
A vote could take place before Democrats hand over leadership of the House to Republicans next month.
Historians estimate up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed by Ottoman Turks around the time of World War I. Turkey denies the deaths constituted genocide.

Relevant:
After WikiLeaks, U.S.-Turkish relations in need of catharsis not recriminations - Today's Zaman 
Turkey may develop fighter aircraft with S Korea, Indonesia - Hurriyet
The self determination issue of Iraqi Kurds and its reflections in Iraq - Today's Zaman
Erdogan becomes first Turkish PM to join Karbala mournings - World Bulletin
Picture source: http://article.wn.com/

China-Pakistan Relations - Dynamics and Prospects

A History of China-Pakistan Ties
By James Lamont in New Delhi and Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad, Financial Times, December 19 2010

When China’s prime minister opened the gleaming white latticed China-Pakistan friendship centre in Islamabad at the weekend, the gesture of friendship might easily have been mistaken for naked ambition.

Wen Jiabao was simultaneously unveiling $35bn worth of trade and investment deals to give wings to Pakistan’s stumbling economy by binding it closer to the world’s fastest growing economy. Alongside a newly agreed $16bn package with India, the engagement with Pakistan gives China a sizeable economic footprint in south Asia

Pakistan is the latest country where Beijing is deploying economic power for diplomatic ends. Last month, China agreed $20bn worth of deals with France and is considering the possible purchase of Portuguese government bonds.

The three-day visit by Mr Wen to Pakistan was a crowning moment in a 40-year partnership underpinned by military hardware and increasingly infrastructure development. Beijing is warmly described as “an all weather friend” by top Pakistani officials – a description that differentiates it from Washington, viewed as one of the more fair weather variety.

Islamabad plays the two powers off against each another to get what it wants at lower cost and with less fuss.

Chinese officials in Islamabad say Beijing has sought to be visible with its assistance. It helps with nuclear power plants, roads, railways, hydroelectric power and military supplies. The result is that, unlike the US, which long prioritised military assistance and is seen by many Pakistanis as the enemy, China enjoys widespread popularity

For complete article, click here
Relevant:
China, Pakistan sign for billions - Aljazeera
China's Growing Influence on Pakistan Worries U.S - CBS
China, Pakistan ink trade deals during Wen’s visit - Dawn
Fight against terror: Don’t doubt Pakistan, Wen tells the West - Express Tribune

Pakistan 2010: The Most Dangerous Decade Begins??

Pakistan 2010: The Most Dangerous Decade Begins

The Morningside Post, Nadia Hasham, December 17, 2010
 
In a successful attempt to highlight and question the emerging trends of one of the most dynamic nations, the Columbia-Paris Alliance Program together with the Center for the Study of Democracy, Toleration and Religion (CDTR), the Institute for Religion, Culture and Public Life (IRCPL), and the South Asia Institute presented a conference on the domestic and regional issues surrounding the future of Pakistan. The panel on “The Domestic Scene in Pakistan” was the morning session of a larger full-day symposium provocatively entitled Pakistan 2010: The Most Dangerous Decade Begins, which proved to be a wonderful blend of scholars highlighting differing and often conflicting elements in Pakistan, from civil-military relations, to the police force and the judiciary.
.....
Columbia’s own Dr. Hassan Abbas provided an interesting perspective, able to draw on personal experience to discuss the issue of civilian law enforcement. He agreed with Dr. Zaidi, contending that one of the most dangerous decades in the history of Pakistan has ended or is about to end. Sharing data from research he conducted, Dr. Abbas introduced a controversial yet innovative idea: “counterinsurgency and counterterrorism is not the task of the military”. Instead, he sees the solution in the promising institutions of civilian law enforcement – the police force. In fact, during the discussion headed by Dr. Christophe Jaffrelot, Dr. Abbas presented an increased role of the police as a necessary counterbalance to the unsettling power of the military.
........
The joint organizers Dr. Stepan and Dr. Jaffrelot (Sciences Po‐CERI) say they see a need to create a forum for discussing the future of this instrumental country, the outcome of which is proving to have a large impact on regional and global political relations. Representing both sides of the Alliance Program, the product of a seven-year long partnership between Columbia and three of France’s most esteemed schools, Ɖcole Polytechnique, Sciences Po, and the UniversitĆ© of Paris – PanthĆ©on Sorbonne, Dr. Stepan and Dr. Jaffrelot cited the lack of adequate attention to this emerging and crucial issue as the impetus for the symposium. The resources available at this time – the meeting of such academics all with impressive biographies conducting their own empirical research into various aspects of Pakistan’s governance structure – certainly enriched the discussion and proved the panel to be quite the successful forum for engaging this topic.

The strength of the event was certainly in the experience and original research of its panelists, who were able to follow emerging trends, bringing new ideas, evaluations, and projections to the internal dynamics of the closely-watched nation of Pakistan. All that remains to be seen is whether the country will able to utilize the various aspects of its infrastructure that these scholars have highlighted for a more promising future, or whether the danger is just beginning.

For complete article, click here
For complete audio record of the conference, click here

Sunday, December 19, 2010

'The Rising Tide: New Direction in Art From Pakistan'


Pakistan’s Palette of Blood and Tears
By Jane Perlez, New York Times, December 17, 2010

KARACHI, Pakistan — In this chaotic city of 18 million people, an exhibition of works by Pakistan’s most significant contemporary artists shows just how imbued with violence daily life here is: on the street, in the air and in the debate about the future course of the nation.

Installed in the elegant rooms of the Mohatta Palace Museum, a confection of Mughal architecture in pink stone, the exhibition, “The Rising Tide: New Direction in Art From Pakistan,” includes more than 40 canvases, videos, installations, mobiles and sculptures made in the past 20 years. Its curator, the feminist sculptor and painter Naiza Khan, said her aim was to show the coming of age of Pakistani art, which blossomed when censorship was lifted after the death of the American-backed Islamic dictator Gen. Zia ul-Haq.

Violence was not an intended theme. “I wanted the works to reflect the many strands of the urban condition,” Ms. Khan said in her light-filled studio in an upscale neighborhood here.

But the corrosive impact of Pakistan’s struggle with Islamic militants, its tortured relationship with the United States and the effects of an all-powerful military pervade the show.

The artist Abdullah Syed, for example, assembled a fleet of drones — the pilotless American aircraft that fire missiles at militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas — constructed from the blades of box cutters, the very instruments used by some of the 9/11 attackers. They float on wires just above the viewer’s head, the silvery blades shimmering menacingly in bright light.

A second fleet of drones is constructed from dollar bills folded into the shape of the planes and stapled together in circular patterns that resemble those of an oriental carpet. Called the “Flying Rug,” the paper fleet casts an ominous shadow on a nearby wall.

Mr. Syed, one of several artists in the show pursuing a career abroad, teaches at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “I’m always navigating ideas between the West and here,” he said, perched on a ladder as he hung his killer fleets. The “Flying Rug” takes sides: “I’m saying, ‘To hell with Uncle Sam.’ ”

For completer articel, click here

Friday, December 17, 2010

Lessons From Karbala: Islamic History's Most Tragic Episode

Lessons from Karbala
Farhan Bokhari, The News, December 17, 2010.

“I am not rising (against Yazid) as an insolent or arrogant person, or a mischief-monger or tyrant. I have risen (against Yazid) as I seek to reform the Ummah of my grandfather. I wish to promote good and forbid evil.” – Excerpt from the last sermon of Imam Hussain (AS) before departing from Madina on his journey for the epic battle at Karbala, Iraq, 61 Hijri (680 AD).

This week has seen a wave of congregations across the world, dedicated to mourning the martyrdom of Imam Hussain (AS), the younger son of Hazrat Ali (AS) and Bibi Fatima (AS), the daughter of Prophet Muhammad (may peace be upon him).

On Friday, the 10th day of the month of Muharram, remembered as Ashura, the commemoration peaks as mourners recall and seek to relive. to the extent possible, each step through this tragic day whose memory has only become increasingly powerful with the passage of time.

But in this continued remembrance almost 14 centuries later lies the compelling face of the enduring legacy of Imam Hussain (AS), powerfully delivered through the strength of his message of defiance and inspiration to his followers.

In military terms on the day of this historic battle, the odds appeared to have been lined up squarely against Imam Hussain (AS). His small group of followers, by most accounts no more than 72, were no match for the large army despatched by Yazid, the monarch.

The soldiers of Yazid under his personal orders had a narrow set of choices. They were to either seek “bayt” (allegiance) from Imam Hussain (AS) in favour of Yazid, which Imam Hussain (AS) had consistently refused, or to eliminate the Imam and his followers.

What followed on the 10th day of Muharram was indeed a tragedy of monumental proportions. All of the males, including Hazrat Ali Asghar, the six-month-old infant son of Imam Hussain (AS), were martyred at the hands of Yazid’s army, while the women and the remaining children were all taken captive. The sole male left to represent the clan of Bani Hashim, the household of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), was Imam Zainul Abideen (AS), who survived mainly because he was too frail to fight following a long-term illness.

The trials and tribulations for the household of Prophet Muhammad (PUBH) following this epic battle, took the prisoners of Karbala in humiliation on foot and on camels through an arduous journey to appear at the court of Yazid in Damascus.

For complete articel, click here
Relevant:
A day of mourning - by Batool Zehra, Express Tribune
Hussain at Karbala - Ismaili.net
The Women of Karbala: Keeping Imam Hussain's Message Alive - Islamic Insights
What Non-Muslims say about Imam Hussain
Karbala: Chain of Events - alislam.org
Karbala Movie - Youtube

Blog Post from 2009
Click: The Story of Karbala: Imam Hussain and His Great Sacrifice

Blog Post from 2011:
Click: The Message of Karbala - by Hassan Abbas, 2011

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Richard C. Holbrooke, 1941-2010


Post-Holbrooke Question: ‘What Now?’
By MARK LANDLER, NEw York Times, December 14, 2010

WASHINGTON — When President Obama turned to Richard C. Holbrooke during a White House meeting on Afghanistan last year, Mr. Holbrooke spoke gravely of the historic challenge the two men faced, likening it to when Clark M. Clifford advised Lyndon B. Johnson about what to do in Vietnam.

“Richard,” an impatient Mr. Obama interrupted him, “do people really talk like that?”

That strained exchange helps explain why Mr. Holbrooke, the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, was an awkward fit in the Obama administration. A man of high drama and an acute sense of his own role, he ruffled feathers in a White House that prides itself on team-playing and a lack of drama.

With Mr. Holbrooke’s death on Monday, the administration has lost one of its most resonant voices, just as it completes its latest review of its Afghan war strategy. His death confronts the White House and State Department with some difficult questions, starting with how to replace a larger-than-life statesman in a post that was created for him and which he built from scratch.

For now, Mr. Holbrooke’s deputy, Frank J. Ruggiero, will replace him on an acting basis, said the State Department spokesman, Philip J. Crowley. But Mr. Ruggiero, a well-regarded diplomat who was previously the senior civilian official in southern Afghanistan, is unlikely to be a permanent successor.

For complete article, click here

Related:
After Holbrooke, New Afghan Tests by Jayshree Bajoria - Council on Foreign Relations
In region he oversaw, a mixed review for Holbrooke - Los Angeles Times
Richard Holbrooke, 1941-2010 - Atlantic Council
Richard Holbrooke: A Disappointed Man - Newsweek
Around the Halls: Remembering Richard Holbrooke - Brookings
Richard C. Holbrooke, 1941-2010 - Susan Glasser, Foreign Policy
Asia Society Mourns the Loss of Richard Holbrooke - Asia Society

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Thank you Muslim Lakhani

D.C. Man Funds Meals for Homeless Year Round
NBC4 News - December 13, 2010

"I believe in the spirit of sharing, in the spirit of tolerance..." - MUSLIM LAKHANI



For more details about Muslim Lakhani, click here, here and here

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Beyond Wikileaks: Afghanistan Review & The Story of the Afghan Drug Lord who was US Informer!

Jailed Afghan Drug Lord Was Informer on U.S. Payroll
By James Risen, New York Times, December 11, 2010

WASHINGTON — When Hajji Juma Khan was arrested and transported to New York to face charges under a new American narco-terrorism law in 2008, federal prosecutors described him as perhaps the biggest and most dangerous drug lord in Afghanistan, a shadowy figure who had helped keep the Taliban in business with a steady stream of money and weapons.

But what the government did not say was that Mr. Juma Khan was also a longtime American informer, who provided information about the Taliban, Afghan corruption and other drug traffickers. Central Intelligence Agency officers and Drug Enforcement Administration agents relied on him as a valued source for years, even as he was building one of Afghanistan’s biggest drug operations after the United States-led invasion of the country, according to current and former American officials. Along the way, he was also paid a large amount of cash by the United States.

At the height of his power, Mr. Juma Khan was secretly flown to Washington for a series of clandestine meetings with C.I.A. and D.E.A. officials in 2006. Even then, the United States was receiving reports that he was on his way to becoming Afghanistan’s most important narcotics trafficker by taking over the drug operations of his rivals and paying off Taliban leaders and corrupt politicians in President Hamid Karzai’s government.

For complete article, click here
Related:
Scenarios: U.S. reviews Afghanistan war ahead of crucial period - Reuters
Afghanistan Review – A Show Without any Substance - A New Way Forward
Afghanistan in 2010: A Survey of the Afghan People - Asia Foundation
War in Afghanistan - The December Review - Carnegie Endowment
For Obama, A Mixed Report Card From Afghanistan - NPR

Friday, December 10, 2010

Shameful: Fake Wikileaks - Failing To Learn....

Pakistani media publish fake WikiLeaks cables attacking India

According to the reports, US diplomats described senior Indian generals as vain, egotistical and genocidal; they said India's government is secretly allied with Hindu fundamentalists; and they claimed Indian spies are covertly supporting Islamist militants in Pakistan's tribal belt and Balochistan.

"Enough evidence of Indian involvement in Waziristan, Balochistan," read the front-page story in the News; an almost identical story appeared in the Urdu-language Jang, Pakistan's bestselling daily.

If accurate, the disclosures would confirm the worst fears of Pakistani nationalist hawks and threaten relations between Washington and New Delhi. But they are not accurate.

An extensive search of the WikiLeaks database by the Guardian by date, name and keyword failed to locate any of the incendiary allegations. It suggests this is the first case of WikiLeaks being exploited for propaganda purposes.

The controversial claims, published in four Pakistani national papers, were credited to the Online Agency, an Islamabad-based news service that has frequently run pro-army stories in the past. No journalist is bylined.

Shaheen Sehbai, group editor at the News, described the story as "agencies' copy" and said he would investigate its origins.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Original Story in The News: Enough evidence of Indian involvement in Balochistan, Waziristan - The News
Fake WikiLeaks from Pakistan: How dumb are our agencies? - Five Rupees
Pakistani media publishes fake WikiLeaks scoops - Foreign Policy

Thursday, December 09, 2010

America's War With Itself in Central Asia

Clinton Visits A Tumultuous Central Asia

America's War With Itself in Central Asia

By Philip Shishkin
Originally published by Project Syndicate on Nov. 30, 2010

WASHINGTON, DC – In its decade-long slog to secure Afghanistan, the United States has juggled contradictory foreign policies in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the fragile Central Asian states with key supporting roles in the war. There's the policy of engaging the two post-Soviet states for their own sake, promoting good governance, human rights, and business ties—the usual grab-bag of US diplomacy. Then there’s the policy of using them as logistical hubs in the Afghanistan war.

Unfortunately, the two policies have often worked at cross purposes, diminishing America’s long-term influence in the region and at times hurting its ability to conduct the war. And, as the US pours more troops and money into Afghanistan, military expediency is once again trumping other policy goals in Central Asia.

In some ways, that is understandable: the US has a war to wage on a tight, self-imposed deadline. Fuzzy, feel-good projects to foster human rights and good governance in an obscure region next-door must wait.

For complete article, click here
Related:
Empire: A world with no one in charge by Robert Kaplan, Delaware Online
WikiLeak's Unflattering Message About Central Asia - Radio Liberty
Regional counter-trafficking project launched in Turkmenistan - Trend
Clinton Visits A Tumultuous Central Asia - Atlantic Sentinel

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia: Close Relations?

Excerpt
WikiLeaks: The Saudis' Close but Strained Ties with Pakistan
By Ishaan Tharoor, TIME, December 6, 2010

As Hassan Abbas, a professor of South Asian studies at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs, notes, the cables also illustrate where Saudi and U.S. interests in the region possibly diverge. "Saudi Arabia is a monarchy and not interested in seeing many Muslim countries going down the road of democracy," he says. An April 2009 cable claims the Saudis are fearful of a "Shi'a triangle" of hostile Shi'a-led governments in Iraq, Iran and Pakistan, while others depict the Saudis as desperate to counteract the growing clout of Turkey, another rising Muslim democracy. Whatever their differences, however, the WikiLeaks cables reveal a belief in Washington that Pakistan's road to salvation still winds through Riyadh.

For complete article, click here
Related:
External actors: Saudi Arabia’s covert role in Pakistan - The Express Tribune
Leaked memos reveal US pressing for Saudi help in Pakistan - Dawn
Wikileaks Reveals Tensions Between Pakistan, Saudis by Farhan Bokhari, CBS
For Dawn articles/resources on Wikileaks, click here

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

How to Reform Pakistan's Criminal Justice System?

Reforming Pakistan’s Criminal Justice System
International Crisis Group, Asia Report N°196 - 6 Dec 2010

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The ineffectiveness of Pakistan’s criminal justice system has serious repercussions for domestic, regional and international security. Given the gravity of internal security challenges, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led government in Islamabad, and the four provincial governments should make the reform of an anarchic criminal justice sector a top domestic priority.

The low conviction rate, between 5 and 10 per cent at best, is unsurprising in a system where investigators are poorly trained and lack access to basic data and modern investigation tools. Prosecutors, also poorly trained, are not closely involved in investigations. Corruption, intimidation and external interference in trials, including by the military’s intelligence agencies, compromise cases before they even come to court. Given the absence of scientific evidence collection methods and credible witness protection programs, police and prosecutors rely mostly on confessions by the accused, which are inadmissible in court. Militants and other major criminals are regularly released on bail, or their trials persist for years even as they plan operations from prison. Terrorism cases, too, produce few convictions.

The failure of prosecutors to achieve convictions in major cases, such as the June 2008 Danish embassy bombing, the September 2008 Marriott Hotel bombing in Islamabad, and the March 2009 attack on a police academy in Lahore, has weakened public confidence in the state’s ability to respond to terrorism. Despite the increasing urgency of reform, Pakistan’s police, and indeed the whole criminal justice system, still largely functions on the imperative of maintaining public order rather than tackling 21st century crime.

A military-led counter-terrorism effort, defined by haphazard and heavy-handed force against some militant networks, short-sighted peace deals with others, and continued support to India and Afghanistan-oriented jihadi groups, has yielded few successes. Instead, the extremist rot has spread to most of the country. The military’s tactics of long-term detentions, enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings provoke public resentment and greater instability, undermining the fight against violent extremism.

Wresting civilian control over counter-terrorism policy, a key challenge of the current democratic transition, will require massive investments in police and prosecutors, specifically to enhance investigative capacity and case building. Successes in combating serious crime, including kidnappings-for-ransom and sectarian terrorism, during the democratic transition of the 1990s demonstrate that civilian law enforcement agencies can be effective when properly authorised and equipped. With the scale of violence far greater today, the government needs all the more to utilise political and fiscal capital to modernise the criminal justice sector.

For complete summary and recommendations, click here
For complete report (pdf), click here

Monday, December 06, 2010

Afghan Wish List - in the Post Wikileaks Scenario

Afghan wish list: Kabul pushes for end to interference
Express Tribune, December 6, 2010

KABUL: Afghanistan is seeking greater interaction with the civilian apparatus in Islamabad in a bid to end Pakistan military’s alleged “interference” in its affairs, an official accompanying Prime Minister Yousaf Raza on his Kabul tour told Express 24/7 on Sunday. Many observers in Kabul believe Islamabad is blocking attempts at finding a political solution to the conflict in that country.

They also said that Burhanuddin Rabbani, the chief of the Afghan High Council for Peace, has called for restoring the Loya Jirga for initiating contacts with the Taliban in a bid to reintegrate them into mainstream Afghan society. Officials quoted Rabbani as saying that initiating talks with the Taliban without restoration of the Loya Jirga would be useless.

The Associated Press of Pakistan quoted him as saying a day ago that the objective of the High Peace Council “is precisely to develop close political bilateral and economic relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan”. During the meeting, the prime minister invited Rabbani to visit Pakistan. Another official in the prime minister’s entourage told this correspondent that Afghan officials had also hinted at broader Pakistani support for bringing the Haqqani network to the negotiating table.
They also said that President Hamid Karzai was “very frank” in his interaction with Gilani. They said the Afghan president was “furious over the coalition forces’ lack of common sense while dealing with the Mullah Mansoor”, a reference to the fake Taliban leader who duped senior coalition leaders.

For complete article, click here
Related:
Af-Pak policy: Islamabad scrambles to secure vital interests - ET
WikiLeaks cables reveal Afghan-Pakistani row over fugitive rebel - Guardian
EU doubts Afghanistan success: WikiLeaks files - CBC
WikiLeaks: Afghan MPs and religious scholars 'on Iran payroll' - Guardian
Exclusive: Gen. David Petraeus Denies Resignation Threat, Backs President Karzai - ABC News

Friday, December 03, 2010

Wikileaks and Pakistan: Various Perspectives

From WikiLeaks to PakiWeaks
By Cyril Almeida, Dawn, Dec 3, 2010

WIKILEAKS has vindicated at least one American diplomat: Anne Patterson. The recent US ambassador to Pakistan comes across as one sharp cookie, learning quickly on the job, and soon enough cutting through much of the fog of Pakistani politics and security to get to the bottom lines.

Sometimes the outside observer can tell a lot more about a place than those immersed in it for long years. And so it is that Patterson hones in on many truths.

My personal favourite, her comment about the Pakistani psyche after Nawaz Sharif thanked the Americans for ‘selecting’ Kayani: “The fact that a former prime minister believes the US could control the appointment of Pakistan’s chief of army staff speaks volumes about the myth of American influence here.”

But there is another little passage in a cable in the run-up to the lawyers’ long march last year which is remarkably revealing, and perhaps goes to the heart of what is the problem in Pakistan:

“Kayani hinted at disquiet among his corps commanders who believe Zardari is corrupt and has not been paying enough attention to Pakistan’s economic and security challenges…. Kayani told ambassador he has talked directly to Zardari, but he does not appear to have conveyed the seriousness of army concerns about Zardari or the security situation vis-Ć -vis the march. (Note: Kayani may be seeking to avoid a confrontation that would prompt Zardari to make a disastrous decision to try and oust the COAS.)”

The last sentence is, if you think about it, quite amazing. Here is the US ambassador to Pakistan musing about the possibility that if the Pakistan army chief told the Pakistani president what he thought of the said president, the president may try and sack the COAS, historically and unquestionably the most powerful office in the country.

That’s your transition to democracy right there, that’s how tenuous this whole thing really is.

For complete article, click here
Related:
Wikileaks Actually Shows US-Pakistan Relations Are Strong - By Syed Yahya Hussainy, Huffington Post
Diplomats saw no ISI link in Mumbai attack - Dawn
Pakistan media full of WikiLeaks - CNN
WikiLeaks and Pakistan’s dysfunctional state - By Raza Rumi, Express Tribune

Gul-e-Khandana : ‘I told school attackers to burn me first’: Those who challenge Terrorists in Pakistan deserve recognition

Gul-e-Khandana, a primary school headmistress in Matta.
PHOTO: EXPRESS


 For the love of her school: ‘I told school attackers to burn me first’
Express Tribune, December 3, 2010


SWAT: While fear and terror in the valley of Swat pushed everyone into acquiescence, Gul-e-Khandana not only resisted the militants but also saved her school from being blown up.
Gul-e-Khandana, who hails from Matta tehsil, is the headmistress of a primary school for girls in Sijban, Matta. “I have intense love for this school. Where I now teach, I studied as a young girl in primary school,” she tells The Express Tribune.

She is the first woman from her family who chose to work outside the house, despite family pressure. “My family did oppose me but I resisted them because I wanted the girls of my village to be educated. For the first two years, I taught without a salary,” she said.

Education and literacy have never fared very well in Swat and when the militants intensified their hold in the region, education suffered the most. While most residents took fright, Gul-e-Khandana refused to. “When the militants started bombing schools, I feared for my school. I decided to transfer the record and furniture of my school to my home,” Gul-e-Khandana recalls.

The situation only seemed to worsen as the government gradually lost its control, she said. “The militants banned education for girls and blew up the schools where they could study,” she said.

As expected, her school was also on the list of schools to be attacked. “When they came to attack my school, I ran to it frantically. As they prepared to torch it, I blocked their way and told them to burn me first,” she says. “With Allah’s blessing, they retreated and my school was safe.”

The militants then launched personal attacks on Gul-e-Khandana and her family. “They called us infidels and came to our home to take away the school’s furniture and records. My children, our whole family were petrified but I did not lose heart and refused to let them even touch it.”

For complete article, click here

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

Wikileaks Bombshell - Latest Information about Pakistan - III

General Assessment - Lessons for the US and Pakistan: From the latest revelations, it appears that US diplomats and officials based in Pakistan routinely spend a lot of time discussing, analyzing and reporting domestic political issues in Pakistan that are of little consequence for the US interests. That explains why they often fail to understand and project major developments in Pakistan and South Asia in a timely fashion. Many of the conspiracy theories popular in Pakistan about US efforts to get a pardon for Musharraf in 2008 and undue interference in domestic political developments are substantiated by these revelations.  

WikiLeaks cables: Pakistani army chief considered plan to oust president
Army chief considered pushing President Zardari from office to prevent opposition leader Nawaz Sharif taking power - Daclan Walsh, Guardian, Nov 30, 2010

Pakistan's army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, considered pushing President Asif Ali Zardari from office and forcing him into exile to resolve a political dispute, the US embassy cables reveal.

Kayani aired the idea during a frantic round of meetings with the US ambassador Anne Patterson in March 2009 as opposition leader Nawaz Sharif rallied thousands of supporters in a street movement that threatened to topple the government.

Kayani said that while he disliked Zardari, he distrusted Sharif even more, and appeared to be angling for a solution that would prevent the opposition leader from coming to power.

The cable illustrates the strong behind-the-scenes hand of Pakistan's military in civilian politics only six months after the last military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, resigned.

It also highlights the central role of western diplomats in Pakistani power games – as the Americans spoke with Kayani, British diplomats forged their own plan to broker a political deal between warring factions.

For complete article, click here
POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS

....Zardari is frank about the strength of the Taliban – "I'm sorry to say this but we are not winning" the war against extremists he told the US vice-president, Joe Biden, in 2009 – and his own limitations.
....
But some dispatches make it clear that the Americans do wield great clout. After General Pervez Musharraf resigned as president in 2008, ambassador Patterson pressed Zardari to grant him immunity from prosecution. "We believed, as we had often said, that Musharraf should have a dignified retirement and not be hounded out of the country," she said.
(for original cable, click here)

NUCLEAR SAFETY ISSUES

WikiLeaks cables expose Pakistan nuclear fears: Guardian

US diplomats in Islamabad were told Pakistan was working on producing smaller, tactical nuclear weapons that could be used on the battlefield against Indian troops. "The result of this trend is the need for greater stocks of fissile material … Strategic considerations point Pakistan in the direction of a larger nuclear force that requires a greater amount of fissile material, Pakistani officials argue."

The US conducted its own secret analysis of India's military contingency plans, which are codenamed Cold Start. India has said that if sufficiently provoked, it would mount a rapid invasion of Pakistan.

The US said in a cable that it doubted the Indian army was capable of doing so: "It is the collective judgment of the mission that India would likely encounter very mixed results. Indian forces could have significant problems consolidating initial gains due to logistical difficulties and slow reinforcement."

But the US ambassador to India, Tim Roemer, warned in February that for India to launch Cold Start, would be to "roll the nuclear dice". It could trigger the world's first use of nuclear weapons since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

"Indian leaders no doubt realise that, although Cold Start is designed to punish Pakistan in a limited manner without triggering a nuclear response, they cannot be sure whether Pakistani leaders will in fact refrain from such a response."

Also see, U.S. Opposed Release of Nuclear Dealer: New York Times; Nuclear Fuel Memos Expose Wary Dance With Pakistan - NYT; Unstable Pakistan Has US on Edge: Spiegel Online

TERRORIST GROUPS IN PAKISTAN, PML-N & ISI

WikiLeaks cables: Pakistan opposition 'tipped off' Mumbai terror group: Guardian

Pakistan's president alleged that the brother of Pakistan's opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, "tipped off" the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) about impending UN sanctions following the 2008 Mumbai attacks, allowing the outfit to empty its bank accounts before they could be raided....

Ambassador Meets with Generals Kayani and Pasha: Guardian

Kayani said we should talk to President Zardari about moving forward the back-channel with India, starting with the provisions agreed to in 2006....DGISI Pasha asked Ambassador to convey to Washington that he had followed up on threat information that an attack would be launched against India between September-November. He had been in direct touch with the Israelis on possible threats against Israeli targets in India. He had also gone to Muscat and Tehran to engage those intelligence services on threats, and they were alerted and working with Pakistan. He reminded Ambassador that information about an attack on India had come his way and he had asked CIA to convey it to the Indians through CIA channels. ...  He emphasized that ISI was doing everything possible to reduce the possibility of an attack on India.