Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Nuclear Security Cooperation Between the United States and Pakistan

Nuclear Security Cooperation Between the United States and Pakistan
A Survey from 2000-2009
By Andrew J. Grotto, Michelle Hammer, Center for American Progress, June 24, 2009

Pakistan and the United States share an interest in denying Islamist extremists access to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and preventing rogue Pakistani officials from peddling nuclear technologies. The countries have been working together behind the scenes on this issue since before 9/11. A survey of their efforts, based on publicly available information, suggests substantial progress. The United States must continue to make nuclear security an essential element of its bilateral relationship with Pakistan.

President Barack Obama stated in May that the United States and Pakistan retain “strong military-to-military consultation and cooperation,” but full collaboration is limited in the nuclear arena. The main obstacle is a belief among some Pakistani leaders and the general public that American offers of assistance mask more nefarious motives of espionage or even seizing Pakistan’s arsenal. Media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal report that U.S. Special Forces teams stand ready to forcibly secure weapons stockpiles in the event of an extremist takeover of the Pakistani government do little to assuage these suspicions.

Such insinuations tarnish U.S. credibility and damage its efforts to forge a working partnership with Pakistan and its military establishment as instability mounts in the region. The United States must continue to seek ways to build trust while countering misperceptions.

For complete report, click here

Related - Varying Viewpoints:
No US money being used for nuclear security’ - Daily Times
How the U.S. Has Secretly Backed Pakistan's Nuclear Program From Day One - Counterpunch
Trieste, Al Qaeda and the Stakes in Afghanistan and Pakistan - Bruce Reidel, Brookings
Pakistan Must Expand Its Nuclear Arsenal - S. M. Hali

Pakistan Treads Warily as New Fight Looms

Pakistan Treads Warily as New Fight Looms
Preliminary Efforts Against Fighters in Tribal Waziristan Yield Mixed Results
By Pamela Constable - Washington Post, June 29, 2009

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, June 28 -- More than 70 years ago, the British army went to war against tribal forces loyal to a charismatic religious figure in what is now the Pakistani region of Waziristan. The ensuing guerrilla conflict lasted more than a decade. The British troops, though far more numerous and better armed, never captured the renegade leader and finally withdrew from the region.

Today, the Pakistani army is preparing to launch a major operation against another warrior in Waziristan, the ruthless Islamist commander Baitullah Mehsud. Taking a lesson from history and its own recent failures, the army is attempting to isolate and weaken Mehsud before sending its troops into battle.

Every day for the past two weeks, Pakistani bombers have crisscrossed Mehsud's territory, pounding his suspected hideouts and killing dozens of his fighters, including 16 who officials said died in bombing raids Saturday. Military forces have also surrounded the region to choke off Mehsud's access to weapons and fuel from outside.

"We are trying to shape the environment before we move in for the fight," Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, the chief military spokesman, said in an interview. "We are also trying to minimize the loss of life. Ours is the only institution that can stand up to the militants, but public support is crucial. When we do move in, it must only be against Baitullah and his group. We cannot afford to provoke a tribal uprising."

So far, the effort has produced mixed results. On Tuesday, a Mehsud loyalist assassinated a key pro-government tribal leader in South Waziristan, and U.S. drone strikes killed 46 people at the funeral of a slain Mehsud commander, muddying the waters of tribal loyalties and antipathies.

"It is now clear that any tribals who side with the army will be violently suppressed," said Rifaat Hussain, a professor of defense studies at Quaid-i-Azam University here. "They may tacitly support the state, but they will not dare actively support it." He also noted that many army officers are from the same ethnic Pashtun group as Mehsud, making them reluctant to take him on.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Window of Consent - Dr. Maleeha Lodhi
Army facing tough choice after NWA ambush - Rahimullah Yusufzai, The News

Monday, June 29, 2009

Difficulties of Self-correction

analysis: Difficulties of self-correction — Khaled Ahmed
Daily Times, June 30, 2009

Self-correction looks like defeat, especially in small and weak states prizing honour and self-respect above other fundamental interests of the state such as the national economy

On June 19, 2009, a Dunya TV discussion had ex-foreign secretary Mr Riaz Khokhar protesting that President Asif Ali Zardari had not conformed to norms of ‘protocol behaviour’ while talking to Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. The newspapers had earlier moaned about Mr Singh having insulted Pakistan by telling Mr Zardari to mend his ways before asking for a dialogue. Mr Singh had insulted Pakistan and Mr Zardari had simply cowered instead of insulting him back.

Anchor Dr Moeed Pirzada rang up the Indian Express’ editor Shekhar Gupta to find out if the Indians thought their PM had given them the satisfaction of insulting Pakistan. Mr Gupta thought that Mr Singh was normal instead of insulting while accepting a foreign secretaries’ meeting. As for the reference to terrorism, he thought Mr Singh was simply repeating what he had been saying to Pakistan earlier without apparently offending its media.

For complete article, click here

Policing Pakistan by Christine Fair in Wall Street Journal

Policing Pakistan
The army isn't well equipped to fight the insurgency.
By C. CHRISTINE FAIR From today's Wall Street Journal Asia, June 30, 2009.

The United States has spent some $12 billion trying to help Pakistan save itself. Unfortunately, Washington has lavished most of the aid on the Pakistan army. It is time to reconsider that decision and focus instead on improving the country's police force.

There are many reasons why the army can't fix what ails the nation. First, sustained use of the army against its own citizens goes against the grain. A number of Pakistani officers have told me that they did not join the army to kill Pakistanis; they joined to kill Indians. Officers themselves debate whether the army can successfully oust the militants, and even if it can, whether it could hold the area for long. The army's past and recent track record in clearing and holding territory is not encouraging.

Second, the army has resisted developing a counter-insurgency doctrine. It prefers to plan and train for conventional battles and views its struggle against insurgents as a "low-intensity" conventional conflict. Washington has been slow to understand that this is not a quibble over semantics but a serious difference in how the army intends to contend with the threat. The Pakistani army believes India is its principal nemesis, not the insurgents who have occupied the Swat valley and destabilized Pakistan and the region.

Third, the army's sledgehammer attempt to expel militants from their various redoubts has devastated much of Pakistan's Pashtun belt, flattening villages and forcing more than three million people to flee. The devastating blitzkrieg shows that the Pakistani army resists developing an effective counter-insurgency capability to secure, not dispossess, the local population.

A police force-led effort would be better than one led by the army, as the history of successful counterinsurgency movements in disparate theatres across the globe shows. Militants understand the potential power of the police even if Washington and Islamabad do not. Since 2005, insurgents and terrorists have killed about 400 police each year in suicide bombings, assassinations, and other heinous crimes, according to Hassan Abbas, a former police officer in Pakistan who is now a research fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

The police make for easy targets because they are outgunned, under-resourced, inadequately equipped and poorly trained. Because most don't even have the same lucrative death benefits as army personnel, many have simply fled the fight to protect their families. Police officers in Swat have even taken out newspaper advertisements declaring that they have left the force in hopes that insurgents will spare them and their families. To take the lead in fighting the militants, Pakistan's police will need training, modern weaponry, personal-protection equipment, life insurance and access to civilian intelligence.

Police in Pakistan are admittedly widely reviled for being corrupt. However there are encouraging signs of change. Several policing organizations, such as the National Highways and Motorway Police, the Islamabad Police and the Lahore Traffic Police have all gained the trust of their citizenry through professional and courteous conduct. In these forces, police are paid a handsome salary and are subject to strict accountability for their performance. Their new salaries are too valuable to lose by taking small bribes.

Pakistan's police leadership seems up for the challenge. Since 2000, Pakistan's own police leadership has led the demand for police reform only to be stifled by military and civilian political leadership who benefit from a corrupt police force that does their bidding. It's time for the international community to support these unexpected reformers.

So far, only 2.2% of U.S. funding to Pakistan has gone to assisting the police -- $268 million between 2002 and 2008 for narcotics control, law enforcement and border security. The U.S. has an enormous opportunity to help the one Pakistani institution that actually wants American help.

Should the Obama administration embrace this task, it will need to change its approach to police training, and it will need international partners. The State Department, which has traditional responsibility for this area, cannot do it alone. As the experience with police training in Afghanistan has shown, the Department of Defense has to step in to take the lead on police training. Unfortunately, the international community has resisted supplying trainers or resources to the Afghanistan effort and some contractors have not performed well.

Now more than ever, Pakistan's insecurity touches the shores of Europe and Asia. Washington and other friends of Pakistan should commit to helping Pakistan's police secure the country. It will take years. But it can only happen if preparations begin now.

Ms. Fair is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

Related:
Police and Law Enforcement Reforms in Pakistan - ISPU
Police Need Immediate Support from Intelligence Agencies - The News

Sunday, June 28, 2009

The Long Wait in FATA's Kurram Agency: DT

Editorial: The long wait in Kurram
Daily Times, June 29, 2009

As Kurram Agency on the border with Afghanistan waits for the return of the writ of the Pakistani state for the past three years, the Taliban depredations in the guise of sectarianism continue around the headquarters of the Parachinar agency. At least 33 people were killed and 65 others injured in “sectarian clashes” in various parts of Kurram Agency on Friday night and Saturday. In the last 12 days, the casualty list includes 89 people dead and 175 injured.

The local population has virtually given up on Pakistan during the two years that have seen all roads going to Pakistan cut off and the federal government ditching them after promising to come to their help “within a fortnight”. The local administration, if it can be called that, “cooperates” with the Taliban in the interim and exposes the besieged Shia majority population of Parachinar. According to a local tribesman quoted in the press: “We have had over 700 young people martyred but have not allowed these militants to secure a toehold in upper Kurram. Now the influx of Taliban from Swat, Dir and other areas is worsening the situation”.

Because Pakistan has virtually said goodbye to Kurram, it is no longer possible for the people of the agency to get food and medicine from Pakistan. The Sunni Taliban and their cohorts accuse the Shia of getting help from Afghanistan; the Shia accuse the Sunni groups of getting ever-increasing fighting manpower from Waziristan and Hangu.

Kurram faces Tora Bora on the other side of the border. This is the route that Al Qaeda and its Taliban supporters took to escape from Afghanistan in 2001. The local Parachinar population, being Shia, did not cooperate because of the age-old rivalry between them and the surrounding Sunni tribes. After the establishment of the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) things have got much worse since the Sunni militias that hunt the local Shia are commanded by warlords owing allegiance to Baitullah Mehsud.

The sectarian scourge is also strengthened by the schism in the nearby Orakzai Agency where Baitullah’s commander Hakimullah has nearly 8,000 fighters under him and is busy warring with the opponent Shia militia of Hussain Ali Shah with 7,000 fighters at his disposal. As this war spilled into Kurram, another commander of Baitullah Mehsud, Qari Hussain, the expert in preparing suicide-bombers in a matter of hours, has been operating against the Shia in Kurram. Qari Hussain was reported killed recently during military operation, but his partners are carrying on the sectarian massacre after him.

If and when Pakistan decides to tackle the crisis in Kurram it will find that after years of neglect, the killing machine of the Taliban has bound Kurram to Orakzai, Khyber and Darra Adamkhel through the activities of commander Hakimullah. Other NWFP cities like Hangu and Kohat have caught the virus because of the presence of the Taliban at their outskirts with local administration increasingly in the subordinate mode with them. The Taliban and Al Qaeda sympathisers in Kohat are the actual rulers in this region and have their outreach into Islamabad through the Lal Masjid clergy.

After the death of Qari Hussain, it is the warlord of Darra Adamkhel, Commander Tariq, who is carrying on the war against the Kurram population with the help of other TTP allies. Long years of neglect have tilted the Shia population in favour of some help that they get from the Hazaras of Afghanistan. Also, after the area was cut off from the rest of Pakistan, the Kurram Shias were said to be receiving some assistance from Iran. This has actually exacerbated the situation with a more intensified polarisation between the Shia and those fighting a covert war against Iran.

The people of Kurram have waited a long time for the state of Pakistan to rescue them. Now as the state asserts itself for sovereignty in South Waziristan and the TTP and Al Qaeda terrorists are on the run, the time may have come for the Interior Minister, Rehman Malik, to fulfil his pledge that Pakistan would come to the rescue of Kurram “within a fortnight”. That was said many months ago. *

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Pakistan Army's challenge: holding onto gains against militants

Pakistan Army's challenge: holding onto gains against militants
As the government prepares for a major operation in South Waziristan, it's eyeing lessons learned from previous campaigns that were cut short in the face of weak public support.
By Issam Ahmed | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor; June 27, 2009

Islamabad, Pakistan - As the Pakistani military zeros in on Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan, it is trying to break a pattern in which initially successful operations have lost ground, allowing militants to regain their strength.

Previous operations to flush out militancy have faltered for a number of factors. This time, say analysts, the military is better prepared in counterinsurgency tactics, as seen in its recent battle in the Swat Valley. Most crucially, the government's efforts have popular support, something that's often been lacking in previous operations.

"A lot has changed both globally and domestically," says Badar Alam, a senior editor at Herald, a leading political magazine. "All these factors have ganged up to give the operation the force that it has."

Unsustained operations

Brig. Mahmood Shah (ret.), a security analyst and the former senior bureaucrat of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, says that governments in the past have not been willing to fully tackle militants because of public skepticism.

Brigadier Shah cites a peace deal struck in the aftermath of the first major-scale operation in February 2005.

"We had Baitullah on the ropes," he says, adding that Mr. Mehsud, at the time, was forced to seek refuge in North Waziristan. But fighting stopped, and Mehsud negotiated a fresh peace deal – which, because it was negotiated with militants, as opposed to the entire tribe, quickly fell apart.

Former military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf was unpopular for conducting these operations and was "constantly struggling to legitimize his rule," adds Shah.

The military next attempted to venture into the area in February 2008, when 350 Pakistani troops were forced to abandon the Ladha Fort in the militant stronghold of Makeen, in South Waziristan. That operation was also called off.

But now, a growing familiarity with the territory, which the Army had never entered prior to 2002, as well as experience gained from previous operational errors, should help, says Gen. Athar Abbas, an Army spokesperson.

And, because of the Army's gains against the Taliban in the recent offensive in Swat Valley, Mehsud's militias are now increasingly hemmed in. Recent media reports have suggested that Mehsud's men are falling back to their home turf.

"Swat, Bajaur, and Mohmand are under attack. He knows he is going to be the next target – it's only a question of when," says Ismail Khan, Peshawar bureau chief of Dawn, a leading English daily.

Suicide bomb in Kashmir

On Friday, Mehsud's forces claimed credit for a suicide bomb attack in Pakistani-administered Kashmir – the first attack of its kind in the region – which killed two soldiers and injured three others. The attack was widely interpreted as a retaliation following a week of preoffensive aerial attacks in South Wazirstan, aimed at softening up the militants.

"We are in a position to respond to the Army's attacks, and time will prove that these military operations have not weakened us," Hakimullah Mehsud, a deputy of Baitullah Mehsud, told the Associated Press.

Hassan Abbas, a research fellow at the Belfer Center at Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass., also cites as a stark change the gradual delinkage of Pakistan's military and intelligence establishment from its nexus with militants, whom the military traditionally viewed as a strategic asset.

"From the military establishment's perspective, there's a realization that those who we thought can be our friends, in fact have other agendas as well," he says, citing the growing existential threat faced by the state at the hands of militants it had nurtured for strategic depth in Afghanistan.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Pakistan Gearing Up To Go After Mehsud - CBS
173 million reasons the Taliban may not win against Pakistan - Mail Online
Taliban Losses No Sure Gain for Pakistanis - NYT

Kabul's K Street Project

Kabul's K Street Project
Afghanistan's US ambassador knows that influence comes with a steep price tag in DC. Read his confidential memo pleading for more lobbyists
Mother Jones, June 9, 2009

Help! I'm being outgunned on K Street! That's the message Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States is sending home, according to an internal government memo (PDF) obtained by Mother Jones. His complaint signals that Kabul's man in Washington has learned a fundamental lesson about influence in the nation's capital: With few paid lobbyists to push Afghanistan's agenda, the void is being filled by other regional players, like Pakistan and India, both of which spend millions of dollars each year to ensure that they're heard in Washington's corridors of power.

In his memo to Afghanistan's finance minister, Omar Zakhiwal, which is dated April 21 and marked "confidential," Ambassador Said Tayeb Jawad surveys the competition. Pakistan, he writes, employs nine American lobbying firms, including two "that alone represent and promote President Asif Ali Zardari's interests in Washington." According to the ambassador's missive, these include Locke Lord Strategies-LP, which since May 2008 has been on retainer from the Pakistan government for more than $100,000 per month, and JWT Asiatic and Hill & Knowlton, which together collect a monthly payment exceeding $100,000. All told, according to Jawad's estimate, Islamabad spent at least $3 million on Washington lobbyists in 2008 alone. Explaining how he has been outspent, he cites a January 2009 report in the Washington Post stating that India's lobbyists successfully persuaded the Obama administration to remove Kashmir from Richard Holbrooke's portfolio as the White House's special adviser on Pakistan and Afghanistan. In hopes his government might learn from the example, Jawad suggests that Kabul needs "to give serious consideration to allocating financial resources an on annual basis so that—like Pakistan and India and so many other countries—we are also able to effect pro-Afghanistan policy and legislation in Washington."

To see the original Memo, click here
For complete article, click here

France: dressed or oppressed?

The Pakistan report card
France: dressed or oppressed?
The News, June 27, 2009
Fasi Zaka

Driving in Peshawar is reputed to be a lot like driving in Rome, or possibly worse. As a teenager when I was learning how to drive, my teacher insisted I move into every nook and cranny with total disregard for the right of commuters. But he said two solid rules had to be followed without exception, we had to make way for cows (because they don't move out of the way and can seriously damage the car) and give room for women in burqas (because their peripheral vision in it is poor).

I was quite uncomfortable in treating women in burqas at par with animals. As I grew up I realised a lot many people equate them as one and the same, captives to man without any individual rights. In much the same way, Nicholas Sarkozy has done the same in his address to Parliament in France.

On a personal level I have been uncomfortable with the idea of the burqa, and this was especially after I was walking through Lahore's food street one day and saw a woman eating like a horse because she had to fit the food close to her mouth in a manner that did not compromise her modesty. That being said, I am committed to it if it is a matter of true choice of an emancipated woman. Forcibly covering a woman is as big an atrocity as it is uncovering one, like it seems the French are intent to do.

What the French are doing makes no sense to me. I understand their commitment to secularism, but secularism is a concept that allows for freedom of the individual to practice their own religion as long as they don't push their agenda to the state. With their line on the burqa, the French are implying that secularism has a uniform, which it doesn't and shouldn't.

This reminds me a lot of a failed proposal many years ago in Mumbai that aimed to ban beggars. A ban will not eliminate begging, it will simply push beggars to other areas where they cannot be seen, letting the elites feel comfortable in their extravagance.

Doing away with the burqa in France is a similar proposal. They have huge problems with the economic wellbeing of their Muslim population, doing away with those who seem visibly Muslim will not make the problem go away.

The French aren't the only country in the world to impose restrictions on the burqa. According to The Times of the UK in a fact sheet, there are many more.

Secularism is about choice, not forced choices. Banning schoolchildren from wearing innocuous headscarves (let alone the burqa) is simply creating intra-colonialism. Rather than addressing their secular issues with a Muslim population, like taking up crime and unemployment, choosing to outlaw Muslim symbols, or attempting to, only serves to alienate them.

The presumptive ubiquity of burqas in the Muslim world is a stereotype long held to be universally true in the west, and those that have been through the Islamic world know that it is mainly a mainstay of countries led by an iron fist (like some of the petrodollar Arab world) and in areas where the culture has long been extremely patriarchal.

None of this, of course, condones where the burqa has been a tool of oppression. But quite often the burqa itself, and this distinction needs to be recognised, is just one of the many outcomes of forced seclusion. The real issue, of course, is not the burqa but the societies with inequity, a lack of representation for women, economic marginalisation and lip service paid to Islamic equality.

There needs to be an agenda on the burqa, for both the Muslim world and the west, but not the way it is being done now. The French are callously patting their own backs for creating secularism 2.0, and the Muslims ranting in reactionary fervour in defence of it. True freedom of choice is compromised on both ends of the arguments.

The French need to realise that wearing a burqa is a legitimate choice of a person who, with independence and soundness of mind, chooses to practice their religion that way. And Muslims have a responsibility to view the opposite end of the coin and recognise women have the choice not to wear it. As a Pakhtoon who grew up in a conservative atmosphere, I have always admired modesty, but not when it is a travesty.

The writer is a Rhodes scholar and former academic. Email: fasizaka@ yahoo.com

Related:
Deepak Chopra: Mini Skirts Yes, Burqas No? - Huffington Post
Sarkozy’s unveiled intolerance - Boston Globe

Friday, June 26, 2009

An earthquake deferred?

An earthquake deferred
Institute for Middle East Understanding; Bitterlemons.org, Jun 25, 2009

An interview with Mahdi Abdul Hadi
-Mahdi Abdul Hadi is head of the Palestinian Academic Society for the Study of International Affairs, PASSIA

bitterlemons: What relevance does the turmoil in Iran have for the Palestinian street?

Abdul Hadi: It has both direct and indirect relevance to the Palestinian cause. I believe there are three major regional players who are directly and indirectly affecting the Palestinian street. These effects have been observed very closely in recent elections in Turkey, Israel and Iran and all have different impacts on the Palestinian-Israeli.

In Turkey, the rise of the Islamists and the corresponding position of the army was a signal as to how political Islam can be accommodated in a secular framework. Alongside this, the public relations battle during the Gaza war, when Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan confronted Israeli President Shimon Peres in Davos, brought Turkey closer to Palestinians, while maintaining the country's position as an umbrella for Israeli-Syrian political normalization.

The Israeli elections, meanwhile, brought a right-wing government with the harsh rhetoric and stubbornness of Avigdor Lieberman and Binyamin Netanyahu. Israel has been confronted not only by traditional antagonists like Iran, but also by a new global leadership represented by Barack Obama.

That new leadership role has now come under renewed scrutiny with the Iranian elections. The election of Obama and the atmosphere he brought opened the door for Iran to move through and come in from the cold. Everyone expected Iranians to rise to the challenge, to allow Mir Hossein Mousavi to move Iran into the international community and onto a closer footing with Obama and Erdogan.

What happened, however, from a Palestinian perspective, is a political earthquake deferred.

bitterlemons: So Palestinians would have preferred Mousavi?

Abdul Hadi: Yes, because it would have brought Iran onto the stage that Obama has set and enabled the country to take advantage of the new international climate. It would have brought Iran closer to the international community, closer to the language of Obama and to the culture of what is missing in the Middle East, namely challenging others in their own language instead of simply sitting in our tents and demanding the same thing in the same language that we have been demanding for the past 61 years since our first nakba.

For complete article, click here

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Thousands demand justice over Kashmir rape, deaths

Thousands demand justice over Kashmir rape, deaths
Reuters, June 24, 2009

SRINAGAR (Reuters) - Thousands of people shouting "we want justice" marched in south Kashmir on Wednesday to protest against the rape and murder of two Muslim women, officials said.
The latest protest comes two days after authorities suspended four police officers and a forensic science official for allegedly destroying evidence while investigating the crimes against the women in May.

The deaths triggered massive anti-India demonstrations across Muslim-majority Kashmir valley.

Residents say the two women, aged 17 and 22, were abducted, raped and killed by security forces.

"We want freedom", the angry protesters shouted in Shopian in south Kashmir, where bodies of the two women were found on May 29. Anti-India protests have raged in the region since.

Two protesters have died and hundreds been injured in clashes with the police.

Related:
Saving a Kashmiri Village After Remaking His Life - NYT
Kashmir: Rape and murder cases touch off anti-India anger - Christian Science Monitor
Opinion Survey Finds Kashmiris say They are Being Used by India and Pakistan - VOA
Article from 2008 - Land and freedom By Arundhati Roy, Guardian

Pakistan's Extremist Threat

Viewpoints: Pakistan's extremist threat
BBC, June 24, 2009
Four experts offer a range of views on the nature of the threat posed by violent extremists based in Pakistan, and assess whether or not the country's nuclear weapons could fall into the wrong hands.

Dr. Daniel Markey; Dr. Gareth Price; Ahmed Rashid; Kanwal Sibal

For details, click here

Related:
57 PAF officials arrested over links with terrorists - The News
Pakistan Says Taliban Supplied With Guns, Cash From Afghanistan - Bloomberg
Pakistan Slaying Reveals a Flawed Strategy - TIME
Deadliest US missile strikes in Pakistan - AFP

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Current Situation in FATA

Missile attacks kill 50 in South Waziristan
Dawn Report, 24 June, 2009

TANK/WANA: At least 50 people, including an important militant commander, were killed in a series of suspected US missile strikes in South Waziristan on Tuesday. (According to Reuters, 45 militants were killed in two air strikes.)

Security officials said the drones fired missiles when Sangeen, an Afghan commander of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, was holding a meeting soon after the funeral of an associate of Baitullah Mehsud in Lataka area.

They said that apparently the drones remained in the air after the first strike as it also targeted some vehicles in which the militants were fleeing.

The commander, along with other militants, had attended the funeral of Khog Wali, who was earlier killed in another drone attack, along with five others, in Bekh Mary Langara area.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Waziristan uncertainty - Dawn Editorial
The dead do tell tales - The News

Iran's Broken elections by Mosharraf Zaidi

Iran's broken election
The News, June 23, 2009
Mosharraf Zaidi

What is happening in Iran is not a CIA conspiracy to destabilise the Middle East. It is simply more evidence of the incapability of Muslim societies to competently conduct their affairs within the confines of an agreed set of rules. The Great Satan is not in Washington DC, or at the CIA headquarters. The Great Satan is the unfettered and dysfunctional state. In Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and almost everywhere else where Muslims make up a majority of the population, this Great Satan is feeding monsters that are always a few speeches away from being out of control. It is not unnatural that the United States should applaud some of these monsters (like those in Iran) and not others (like the millions of Pakistanis that, for two years, protested for the restoration of the judiciary). Iran's democrats are more convenient for US foreign policy than Pakistani democrats. The United States is a rational animal, and the US state, as problematic as it may be, is not the unfettered and dysfunctional beast that mullahs in every corner of the Muslim world pretend it is.

Many contest the use of the term Muslim world, and perhaps there are good reasons to do so. There continue to be enough reasons however not to get rid of the term. At the top of that list is the collective inability of Muslim societies to construct viable and sustainable states that work. At the top of the list of examples of states that don't work is Iran. And at the top of the list of examples of how it doesn't work is the June 12 election.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Analysis of Iran ’s Presidential Elections - By Zafar Bangash
A Shift on Iran - Editorial, Washington Post

Afghanistan’s Failing Forces: NYT Editorial

Editorial
Afghanistan’s Failing Forces
New York Times, June 22, 2009

The news from Afghanistan is grim. In the first week of June, there were more than 400 attacks, a level not seen since late 2001. President Obama was right to send more American troops to fight. That violence will surely increase as strengthened ground forces step up the pressure on Taliban and Al Qaeda sanctuaries. But it is also true that there can be no lasting security — and no exit for American forces — until Afghanistan has a functioning army and national police that can hold back the insurgents and earn the trust of Afghan citizens. Neither comes close today.

Washington has already spent 7 ½ years and more than $15 billion on failed training programs. President George W. Bush’s Pentagon never sent enough trainers (most of those available were assigned to Iraq) to systematically embed American advisers in Afghan Army units, an approach now paying dividends in Iraq.

It failed to pay Afghan soldiers a living wage, making it easy for Taliban and drug lords to outbid them for the country’s unemployed young men. The Pentagon also neglected to keep track of weapons it gave out, like mortars, grenade launchers and automatic rifles. Tens of thousands disappeared, sold to the highest bidder and, in some cases, used against American soldiers.

Perhaps most fundamentally, American war planners never seemed to understand that a more effective Afghan Army and a more honest and competent police force could help persuade civilians that the war against the Taliban was more their own fight and not just an American war being fought on their territory.

With the Obama team giving Afghanistan the attention it requires, there is a chance to correct these mistakes. Four thousand more trainers are on the way, a dramatic increase over last year. A revived training effort will require the full engagement of the new American commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal.

In an overdue but welcome effort to protect Afghan civilians from errant airstrikes, one of General McChrystal’s first acts in command was to impose strict new limits on air attacks except when needed to protect American and allied troops.

The Bush administration planned to increase the Afghan Army from 90,000 troops to 134,000. That still won’t be big enough to secure a vast, rugged country with a larger population than Iraq’s. American planners propose expanding it to as many as 260,000 troops — roughly the size of Iraq’s Army. No decision has yet been made.

The Pentagon estimates that it would cost $10 billion to $20 billion over a seven-year period to create and train a force that size. Paying it would cost billions more, especially if the current $100-a-month salary is to become more competitive with the $300 the Taliban pays.

The total bill would still be a lot smaller than the cost of sustaining a huge American fighting force there. By the end of this year, there will 68,000 American troops in Afghanistan, costing American taxpayers more than $60 billion a year.

Afghanistan’s national police force will have to be rebuilt almost from scratch. Kabul’s central government is notoriously corrupt, but the tales from the field are even more distressing. Journalists for The Times have reported seeing police officers burglarizing a home and growing opium poppies inside police compounds. American soldiers complain of police supervisors shaking down villagers, skimming subordinates’ wages and selling promotions and equipment. Muhammad Hanif Atmar, the interior minister, has pushed for greater accountability by senior police officials. He has a lot of work ahead of him.

Several thousand more police trainers with experience in civilian law enforcement are needed. European NATO members can and should be providing more help.

There are high expectations for General McChrystal, based on his aggressive attitudes and past special operations success. The Taliban must be confronted head-on. To turn around the war, ordinary Afghans must begin to trust their own government more than they either fear or trust the extremists. Building an effective Afghan Army and police is critical to that effort. There is no more time to waste.

Also See:
FACTBOX: Security developments in Afghanistan - Reuters
Taliban Guards 'Bribed' To Help David Rohde's Daring Escape Plan - ABC News

Monday, June 22, 2009

Af-Pak Policy - An Assessment

Debating the Middle East muddle
Global Politics
By STEVEN STYCOS, The Phoenix, June 17, 2009

US military aid to Pakistan and Afghanistan is being wasted and should be redirected to the police and moderate non-violent groups working for education and the rule of law, according to two Middle East experts who spoke Sunday at the Community Church of Providence.

Hassan Abbas, a Pakistani native and a research fellow at Harvard University, and Joseph Gerson, program director for the American Friends Service Committee, told an audience of 65 that violence in Pakistan and Afghanistan cannot be understood without knowing the history of US involvement. The event was sponsored by the Rhode Island Mobilization Committee, a coalition of peace groups.

"As soon as you go into history," Abbas stated, "you have to face your own mistakes." He and Gerson blame President Jimmy Carter's Cold War policies for the current violence. The US, they explain, with financing from Saudi Arabia and training from the Pakistani military, mobilized tens of thousands of Muslim militants to fight the Soviet Union's occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. They were trained at thousands of religious schools, or madrassas, built on the Pakistani-Afghan border.

When the Soviets were defeated, Abbas said, "We [the US] thought, 'We created this militant force and we could just shut it off.' " The militants were not so easily controlled, Abbas noted: "They had their own agenda, as well, religious bigotry." Also with the Russian threat eliminated, he says, the Pakistani military used the schools to send militants to fight India in the contested Kashmir region.

Today, the same border region, known as the federally administered tribal area, is the site of intense fighting between the Taliban and the Pakistani army. The area has never been integrated into Pakistan, says Abbas, who worked there as a police chief in the 1990s. Since Pakistan's creation in 1948, Abbas said, the government mistakenly failed to strengthen the allegiance of the local population by building schools and hospitals. For 60 years, he noted, in exchange for nominal loyalty to Pakistan, border residents have enjoyed a special status, paid no taxes, and received free electricity.

Billions of dollars in US aid should build schools, strengthen police, and back moderate political groups, Abbas contended, but instead is wasted by the military. Today, Pakistan has "a very tough road. Without international support, they will not make it."

Gerson urged the audience to lobby Congress to oppose President Barack Obama's proposal for supplemental funding for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and to support Worcester Congressman James McGovern's call for an Afghanistan exit strategy. Gerson also called for an end to the use of drones, contending that the unmanned military planes were responsible for killing 900 Afghan and Pakistani civilians, but only 14 or 15 Muslim militants. "You don't win hearts and minds by killing people's families," he argued. Earlier this month, a United Nations report criticized the US for failing to investigate civilian deaths caused by drones or prosecute those responsible,

Gerson also endorsed US participation in peace talks with the Taliban, closure of US bases near the Muslim holy sites in Medina and Mecca, Saudi Arabia, a reduction in the US military budget, and a worldwide ban on nuclear weapons. Finally, his statement, "No more money for Israel until it commits to eliminate its settlements and move to a two-state solution," brought applause from the audience.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Beat extremists you can, says Obama: Exclusive Interview to Dawn


Beat extremists you can, says Obama By Anwar Iqbal
Dawn, 21 Jun, 2009

WASHINGTON: US President Barack Obama, in an exclusive interview to Dawn, has said that he believes the Pakistani state is strong enough to win the military offensive against the extremists.

In this first-ever one-on-one interview by any US president to the Pakistani media, Mr Obama assured the Pakistani nation that he has no desire to seize Pakistan’s nuclear weapons or send US troops inside the country.

The US president also emphasised the need for resuming the dialogue process between India and Pakistan, which was stalled after the Mumbai terrorist attacks in November last year.

The interview covered a wide-range of subjects — from the controversy involving the Iranian presidential election to Mr Obama’s speech in Cairo earlier this month in which he called for a new beginning between the Muslim and the Western worlds.

The venue, the White House diplomatic room with murals of early settlers, brought out the importance of Mr Obama’s historic victory in last year’s general election.

Close to the murals — under the watchful eyes of George Washington — sat a man who overcame gigantic hurdles to become America’s first non-White president.

Here was a man tasked with finding a graceful end to two unpopular wars — in Iraq and Afghanistan — and to steer America, and the rest of the world, out of an unprecedented economic crisis.

Yet, when he strolled into this oval-shaped room, Mr Obama seemed completely at ease with himself. Tall and slim, the 47-year-old US president had the youngish looks of a man who works out daily.

He walked straight towards the camera, greeting everyone, shook hands, occupied the chair reserved for him, and started talking about how he had a special affection for Pakistan and its people.

Asked to comment on Ayatollah Khamenei’s statement that the US was interfering in Iran’s internal affairs, Mr Obama said what’s happening in Iran was remarkable. ‘To see hundreds of thousands of people in peaceful protest against an election that obviously raised a lot of doubts tells us that this is an issue that the Iranian people care deeply about.’

The US and the West, he said, had been very clear that this was not an issue between the West and Iran; this was an issue about the Iranian people seeking justice and wanting to make sure that their voices were heard.

‘And it’s unfortunate that there are some inside Iran and inside that government that want to use the West and the United States as an excuse,’ he said.

‘We respect Iran’s sovereignty, but we also are witnessing peaceful demonstrations, people expressing themselves, and I stand for that universal principle that people should have a voice in their own lives and their own destiny. And I hope that the international community recognises that we need to stand behind peaceful protests and be opposed to violence or repression.’

Mr Obama said that since there were no international observers in Iran, he could not say if the elections were fair or unfair. ‘But beyond the election, what’s clear is that the Iranian people are wanting to express themselves. And it is critical, as they seek justice and they seek an opportunity to express themselves, that that’s respected and not met with violence.’

‘Your speech in Cairo indeed was a speech that created a lot of stir, both in the US and in the Muslim world. Was it the beginning of something bigger to come, or was it just a one-off thing? He was asked.

‘No, I think that this is going to be a sustained process. As I said in Cairo, one speech is not going to transform policies and relationships throughout the Middle East or throughout the world,’ Mr Obama responded.

‘But what I wanted to do was to describe very clearly that the United States not only respects Muslim communities around the world but that there’s an opportunity for I think a new day, where there’s mutual understanding, mutual tolerance; where the United States is seen as somebody who stands with people in their daily aspirations for an education for their children, for good jobs, for economic development,’ he said.

‘And just as the United States at times has, I think, not fully understood what’s happening in Muslim communities, sometimes there have been countries that haven’t understood the rich history of Muslims in America,’ he added.

For complete article, click here

Pakistan has no alternative but to finish militancy: Zardari

Pakistan has no alternative but to finish militancy: Zardari
Dawn, Sunday, 21 Jun, 2009

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan must conduct the ongoing operation against militancy to its logical conclusion as it has no alternative but to finish militants, says President Asif Ali Zardari.

‘We must succeed against the militants for the sake of our country and our people,’ he said in an article sent to newspapers to mark the 56th birth anniversary of assassinated PPP leader Benazir Bhutto being celebrated on Sunday.

‘On her birthday I wish to assert that there simply is no other alternative. The absence of alternatives has made our mind clear,’ he wrote.

PPP workers will celebrate the occasion by donating blood for the needy in memory of what the president called ‘her mission to end militancy from the country which has caused so much innocent blood to flow and tarnished the image of Islam and Pakistan in the world.’

He said her life was spent in a brave struggle against oppression and dictatorship and ultimately ended (by her assassination on Dec 27, 2007) when she stood up and refused to be cowed down by the threats of the terrorists. ‘It was a life worth living and celebrating’.

The president said Ms Bhutto believed that dictatorship, along with poverty and ignorance, bred extremism, militancy and violence which, if not checked could destabilize the country.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Troops make gains in Swat and South Waziristan - Dawn
Pakistan: More than 30 Taliban militants killed - CNN

Saturday, June 20, 2009

"The Pakistani Soldier" - By Richard J Douglas

The Pakistani soldier
The News, June 20, 2009
Richard J Douglas

It is gratifying to see the new White House team giving more attention to relations with Pakistan. During my recent tenure as deputy assistant secretary of defence for counter-narcotics, and earlier as a US Senate staffer, I had the privilege of making numerous journeys to Pakistan and sponsoring several counter-narcotics initiatives with Pakistan's security forces.

Based upon this experience and my personal observations in Pakistan's rugged border areas, I would like to offer a few comments about a field where loser Pakistan-US cooperation would have an important and immediate impact.

In Pakistan's effort to combat extremism, there is one critically important protagonist too often overlooked when western political leaders press Pakistan to "do more." I refer to the Pakistani soldier. In talking with young Pakistani personnel, whether Army aviators or Frontier Corps leaders, I was struck by the familiarity of their priorities, and their similarity to young Americans serving their own country in the armed forces.

The Pakistani soldiers and aviators I encountered opposed terrorism, and like many Americans, have suffered its effects directly or indirectly. They were proud of their responsibility and resourcefulness, and were open and welcoming to US cooperation.

These soldiers did not speak about grand strategy, existential threats from neighbours, or other issues that occupy the international foreign-policy establishment. Rather, a conversation with these confident, English-speaking professionals is one that any American soldier or armed forces family member would recognise.

They ask: Who will look after my family if I am wounded or lost in combat? How will my children be fed, clothed, educated and housed? What can be done to give us the confidence that our loved ones will be well cared-for in return for the sacrifice we willingly make for our nation?

This discussion is more than rhetorical. This is because another compelling feature of Pakistan's reality as I knew it was that with amazing but unheralded frequency, many Pakistani soldiers and Frontier Corps personnel experienced deadly combat engagements with "miscreants" in Pakistan's border areas. Often these soldiers went into combat in unarmoured – and even unarmed – helicopters and with inadequate or incomplete combat gear. But they went anyway, and willingly.

As a broader conversation on Pakistan unfolds in our country, I urge our leaders and policymakers to remember these soldiers and their families. Let us find ways to make a concerted effort not only to help Pakistan equip and employ its forces properly, but to work with Pakistani leaders to help answer the concerns of those who go into battle uncertain about the fate of their families if the worst should happen.

These concerns are well-known to the American soldiers who will form the core of our cooperative training effort with Pakistan. As a naval reserve officer, I learned during my own deployment to Iraq how well our Army understands the paramount importance of taking care of soldiers and their families. For this reason, I believe that our Army and National Guard are the right institutions, at the right time, to engage more closely with Pakistani counterparts.

I have been fortunate to visit Pakistan frequently enough to formsome fairly well-founded views about this beautiful and capable nation. I have also come to appreciate the first-rate group of Americans, led by Ambassador Ann Patterson, who compose the US country team in Islamabad. But my understanding of Pakistan really began here in America.

The Pakistani diaspora has found a home in our nation and it is thriving here. Pakistan and its children have influenced my own children, and welcomed them – and me – into their American homes. Confident, educated, freedom-loving, and hospitable, Pakistanis do their share to strengthen our nation in ways that earlier generations of newcomers would recognise and applaud.

I am glad that the administration and Congress are committed to deepening our nation's relations and cooperation with Pakistan. Above all, I hope the American people will come to appreciate Pakistan as I did: as a willing and compatible partner.

The writer was deputy assistant secretary of defence from January 2006 to January 2009. He served in Iraq in 2006. Email: richdouglas@hotmail.com

Friday, June 19, 2009

Realigning Pakistan's Security Forces: CFR

Backgrounder
Realigning Pakistan's Security Forces
Author: Jayshree Bajoria, Staff Writer
Council on Foreign Relations, June 18, 2009

Introduction
Growing militancy inside Pakistan has spotlighted the inability of the country's security forces to fight domestic insurgency. Militants have been expanding their reach: Large swaths of territory in northwestern Pakistan are out of government control; extremist groups across the country are working together; and suicide bombings frequently rock major cities like Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad. In May, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani described the fight against terrorism (AP) as a "war of the country's survival." The United States sees Pakistani cooperation to defeating its militants as crucial to winning the war in neighboring Afghanistan. The Obama administration, through its Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy, is now focused on strengthening Pakistan's counterinsurgency capabilities, and it is pushing for increased assistance for equipment and training for Pakistani forces. But some analysts say Pakistani authorities, especially in the military, don't see the need to convert to a counterinsurgency force and continue to view India as the country's primary threat. Questions of continuing links between some militant groups and Pakistan's security forces--the army, the Frontier Corps, and the military intelligence agency known as the ISI--remain.

Plans for Reform
There has been some movement by the Pakistani government to tackle the growing insurgency. Early in 2009, it announced the creation of a national counterterrorism authority tasked with developing a counterterrorism strategy and acting as the focal point for coordinating counterterrorism efforts. A special force of eighty thousand troops will be recruited for the authority with funding from Pakistan's allies. But Hassan Abbas, research fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center, says the "real question is whether the requisite funds will be available soon and if this institution will be genuinely empowered by all the major pillars of the state to take up the gigantic task."

Thus far, Pakistan's military strategy to deal with the insurgency has involved peace deals with militants interspersed with military offensives that employ heavy force to clear militant-held areas. This has displaced over three million people in the northwest; the International Crisis Group warns that failure to address this humanitarian crisis could "reverse any gains on the battlefield and boost radical Islamist groups."


For complete article, click here

Thursday, June 18, 2009

My Name is Iran



My Name Is Iran
By ROGER COHEN; New York Times, June 17, 2009

TEHRAN — At the immense opposition demonstration earlier this week, I asked a young woman her name. She said, “My name is Iran.”
A nation has stirred. Provoked, it has risen. “Silence equals protest,” says one banner. The vast crowds move in a hush of indignation, anger distilled to a wordless essence.

In greater numbers than ever before, Iranians had bought in to the sliver of democracy offered by an autocratic system whose ultimate loyalty is to the will of God rather than the will of the people. Almost 40 million voted. Now, their votes flouted, many have crossed over from reluctant acquiescence to the Islamic Republic into opposition. That’s a fundamental shift.

For Complete article, click here

Related:
Expert: Iran Protests Full Of Symbolism - NPR
Leaders worried by the rise of people power in Iran - Guardian
'The world can see how strong the true Iran is to injustice' - Guardian
Ahmadinejad's Official Website
Iran's Mousavi: now political rock star - AP
For Excellent Protests Picture Source, See Here

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

The Fight for Pakistan’s Soul

The Fight for Pakistan’s Soul
By Dr. Hassan Abbas, Kosovo Times, Burma Digest, June 17, 2009; The Daily Star (Lebanon), June 20, 2009; Jordan Times, June 24, 2009; Taipei Times, June 21, 2009; Khaleej Times, June 22, 2009; The Korea Herald, June 24, 2009

CAMBRIDGE – As its army confronts, ever more bloodily, the Taliban in the Swat Valley, Pakistan is fighting for its very soul. The army appears to be winning this time around, in marked contrast to its recent half-hearted confrontations with Taliban forces in neighboring tribal areas.

For now, the Taliban are on the run, some with shaved beards and some in burqas, to avoid being recognized and thrashed. The reason is simple: increasingly, people across Pakistan support the army’s action. This support persists despite the terrible humanitarian cost: more than 1.5 million internal refugees.


This round of fighting was preceded by a negotiated calm, as the government sought to quell militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas by striking a deal with the Taliban leader, Sufi Mohammad. The deal, which instituted a version of Sharia law in the region in exchange for a commitment that militants would lay down their weapons, was blessed by the comparatively liberal Awami National Party (ANP), which governs the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), where Swat is located.

But the Taliban’s assurances of a lower profile were upended by two incidents that exposed its real face. First, private news channels broadcast across the country a video clip recorded on a cell phone of the public flogging of a 17-year-old Swat girl. This gave the public a stark sense of what Taliban justice really meant.

Then, Mohammad was interviewed on GEO TV, where he explained his political views. According to Mohammad, democracy is un-Islamic, as are Pakistan’s constitution and judiciary, and Islam bars women from getting an education or leaving their homes except to perform the Hajj in Mecca.

Religious conservatives were stunned. Leaders of the religious parties rushed to denounce Mohammad’s views. The Pakistani media revisited a famous comment by Mohammad Iqbal, the poet-philosopher who devised the idea of an independent Muslim state in Pakistan. “The religion of the mullah,” he said, “is anarchy in the name of Allah.”

Still, it’s not over until it’s over – and in the short term a lot depends on the state’s capacity to hold the Swat area and re-establish civilian institutions there. And, even if the state succeeds, re-asserting control over Swat will only be the first step. The Taliban is spread throughout the NWFP and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. “Punjabi Taliban” militants from the fighting in Kashmir against India continue to shuttle between the Punjab heartland and the Northwest Territories, posing another serious challenge to government authority.

In the long-term, however, what really matters is whether the Muslims of South Asia will be able to roll back the spread of Talibanization altogether. The answer to that question lies within the various Muslim communities of the region, not just in Pakistan.

Afghanistan faces an election later this year. A clear and transparent vote will make a real difference in establishing the credibility of the Afghan government. In Pakistan, the democratic transition, after years of military rule, is still not complete. There is much hope, though, in the vibrancy of the Pakistani media, as well as in the energy that the legal community generated last March in restoring deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry to his seat on the Supreme Court.

Then there is the Pakistani army, the country’s “super political party.” To a large degree, Pakistan’s relations with India, Afghanistan, and the United States depend on the military. Army commander Ashfaq Kiyani has shown no interest in taking over the state, as his predecessor, General Pervez Musharraf, did. But the army must accept its subservience to Pakistan’s political leadership. The army command must finally recognize that repeated military interventions have not served the country well.

Most significantly, in the face of martial law and political assassination, Pakistanis have not given up their dream of democracy. A living example of this is Afzal Lala, a Pashtun politician associated with the Awami National Party who, despite all the threats from the bloodthirsty Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, remained in Swat through the recent fighting.

Democracy will be decisive because it generates investments in education, health, and economic empowerment that reward ordinary voters. Talibanization gains ground when people lose faith in the capacity of the modern state to improve their lives.

While poor law enforcement needs urgent attention, counter-terrorism is never solely a military affair. Financial pledges from the US and the “Friends of Pakistan” consortium (the European Union, China, and Japan) are important, but when it comes to investing wisely in development projects, Pakistan’s track record is nothing to be proud of. Effective oversight from donors and Pakistan’s private sector will be critical. Only one condition should be imposed on aid for Pakistan: the first money should be spent on rebuilding all the bombed-out girls’ schools in Swat. If need be, the army should guard these schools around the clock.

Hassan Abbas, a fellow at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, is the author of a recent ISPU report, Pakistan Can Defy the Odds: How to Rescue a Failing State.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.
www.project-syndicate.org

Iran's Grand Ayatollah Montazeri Takes a Stand


In the name of God

People of Iran

These last days, we have witnessed the lively efforts of you brothers and sisters, old and young alike, from any social category, for the 10th presidential elections.

Our youth, hoping to see their rightful will fulfilled, came on the scene and waited patiently. This was the greatest occasion for the government’s officials to bond with their people.

But unfortunately, they used it in the worst way possible. Declaring results that no one in their right mind can believe, and despite all the evidence of crafted results, and to counter people protestations, in front of the eyes of the same nation who carried the weight of a revolution and 8 years of war, in front of the eyes of local and foreign reporters, attacked the children of the people with astonishing violence. And now they are attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and Scientifics.

Now, based on my religious duties, I will remind you :

1- A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress all critical views. I fear that this lead to the lost of people’s faith in Islam.

2- Given the current circumstances, I expect the government to take all measures to restore people’s confidence. Otherwise, as I have already said, a government not respecting people’s vote has no religious or political legitimacy.

3- I invite everyone, specially the youth, to continue reclaiming their dues in calm, and not let those who want to associate this movement with chaos succeed.

4- I ask the police and army personals not to “sell their religion”, and beware that receiving orders will not excuse them before God. Recognize the protesting youth as your children. Today censor and cutting telecommunication lines can not hide the truth.

I pray for the greatness of the Iranian people.

Source: Ayatollah Montazeri's Official website (in persian)

Related:
Iran accuses US of meddling after disputed vote - AFP
New Protest Builds as Iran Expands Its Crackdown - NYT

Monday, June 15, 2009

Holbrooke's Message for Pushtuns


America on our airwaves By Huma Yusuf
Dawn, 13 Jun, 2009

Last week, four helicopters swept down on the Sheikh Shehzad camp for IDPs in Mardan. Their arrival was unexpected, and journalists were barred from the camp in an effort to keep the visitation under cover. One of the helicopters was transporting Richard Holbrooke, US special representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan, who was visiting displaced people in order to gain a better understanding of the humanitarian crisis unfolding here. His trip to the camps was kept hush-hush, but one media outlet managed to snag an exclusive interview with the envoy while he was mingling with IDPs – it wasn’t the BBC or VOA, Dawn or The New York Times. It was Radio Buraq, a community radio station that few people living beyond the Frontier province will have heard of.

Holbrooke’s decision to grant an interview to Radio Buraq – which operates stations in Mardan, Peshawar, Abbottabad and Sialkot – indicates that he’s serious about winning the ‘information war’ against the Taliban, which he recently stated was the key to winning the war against terrorism. There are currently 150 illegal radio stations in the Frontier province and another 50 across the tribal areas. ‘FM mullahs’ use unlicensed transmitters to sermonise, promote militancy, incite young men to jihad and spread fear in villages. In April, the US announced that it would work with the Pakistan government to jam these illegal radio stations and support alternative media platforms.

During the interview, Holbrooke explained why the US is committed to bolstering an independent, Pashto-language media landscape. He pointed out that illegal FM stations are the main reason why many Pakistanis believe that their army is fighting a proxy war on the US’s behalf against the Taliban: ‘There is so much false information being put out by the Taliban and Al Qaeda – so many small FM radio stations in Swat and Fata and [so] there is a lot of misinformation out there. The US and [Pakistan] government have not done a good enough job of explaining the problem.’

For Complete article, click here

Picture: Holbrooke with Imtiaz Ali of USIP and Dr. Ashraf Ali for Radio Buraq in Mardan.

Also See:
Seeking Truth and Trust in Pakistan - Washington Post

Pakistani Banker, wrongly portrayed as militant, defends PhD thesis

Banker, wrongly portrayed as militant, defends PhD thesis
The News, June 16, 2009
By Yousaf Ali

PESHAWAR: A banker, who had wrongly been projected as terrorist by the NWFP government in the advertisement that announced head money for the top 21 militants fighting security forces in restive Swat valley, Monday defended his PhD thesis and thus qualified for the highest academic degree from the University of Peshawar.

Mohammad Mushtaq, who serves as a research officer at the Sharia Department of the Bank of Khyber, did his PhD thesis on “Islami Bankari: Aik Fiqhi Jaiza” under the supervision of Dr Ziaullah Al-Azhari, a PhD degree holder on Islamic economy from Jamia Al-Azhar, Egypt.

Mushtaq, whose photograph had been published in place of Qari Mushtaq, a Taliban commander, got admission to the department of Islamic Studies, University of Peshawar for PhD in 2004-05. Son of Haji Rustam Shah, the young researcher had made a remarkable research on the topic that made his external examiners to request him to allow translation of the thesis in a foreign language and officially published in Brunei Darussalam. One of the external examiners of Mohammad Mushtaq was Prof Dr Anwarullah, who is Islamic Legal Advisor to the Minister for Religious Affairs, Brunei Darussalam, in his comment on the thesis, sought permission of the researcher to translate the document into Brunei language and publish it in the country officially. His other examiner Dr Abdul Ghaffar, Director, Georgia Islamic Institute America, has recommended to the UoP to publish and project the good work done by Mushtaq.

Mohammad Umer, former chairman of the department of Islamic Studies, UoP, was his internal examiner. He also conducted the public defense of the thesis. Equally good in his training courses, Mohammad Mushtaq has secured score of 3.9 GPA in his doctorate course.

The main topics that Mushtaq has covered in his thesis include, history of Islamic banking, comparison of Islamic banking with conventional banking in Pakistan, an overview of Islamic mode of finance, alternative of insurance - Takaful - and its religious overview. A large number of faculty and students attended the public defense held at the UoP.

Robert Fisk: Iran erupts as voters back 'the Democrator'

Robert Fisk: Iran erupts as voters back 'the Democrator'
A smash in the face, a kick in the balls – that's how police deal with protesters after Iran's poll kept the hardliners in power
June 14, 2009, The Independent

First the cop screamed abuse at Mir Hossein Mousavi's supporter, a white-shirted youth with a straggling beard and unkempt hair. Then he smashed his baton into the young man's face. Then he kicked him viciously in the testicles. It was the same all the way down to Vali Asr Square. Riot police in black rubber body armour and black helmets and black riot sticks, most on foot but followed by a flying column of security men, all on brand new, bright red Honda motorcycles, tearing into the shrieking youths – hundreds of them, running for their lives. They did not accept the results of Iran's presidential elections. They did not believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won 62.6 per cent of the votes. And they paid the price.


"Death to the dictator," they were crying on Dr Fatimi Street, now thousands of them shouting abuse at the police. Were they to endure another four years of the smiling, avuncular, ever-so-humble President who swears by democracy while steadily thinning out human freedoms in the Islamic Republic? They were wrong, of course. Ahmadinejad really does love democracy. But he also loves dictatorial order. He is not a dictator. He is a Democrator.

Yesterday wasn't the time for the finer points of Iranian politics. That Mir Hossein Mousavi had been awarded a mere 33 per cent of the votes – by midday, the figure was humiliatingly brought down to 32.26 per cent – brought forth the inevitable claims of massive electoral fraud and vote-rigging. Or, as the crowd round Fatimi Square chorused as they danced in a circle in the street: "Zionist Ahmadinejad – cheating at exams." That's when I noticed that the police always treated the protesters in the same way. Head and testicles. It was an easy message to understand. A smash in the face, a kick in the balls and Long Live the Democrator.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Iran on a Razor’s Edge - New York Times
Q+A: Iran's oil supply and potential for disruption - Reuters

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Taliban tribesmen pledge to wipe out al-Qaeda ally in Pakistan: Telegraph

Taliban tribesmen pledge to wipe out al-Qaeda ally in Pakistan
The leader of Taliban tribesmen who has turned on al-Qaeda's most ruthless ally in Pakistan has vowed to help rescue his country from a reign of terror that has pushed it close to collapse
By Saeed Shah in Dera Ismail Khan
Telegraphy, June 14, 2009

In his first interview with a western newspaper, Qari Zainuddin said he had mobilised 3,000 armed followers to attempt to wipe out the feared warlord, Baitullah Mehsud, and drive his al-Qaeda supporters from Pakistan.

Baitallah, who has defeated the Pakistan army three times in the lawless South Waziristan tribal area, is considered a global terror threat by Western intelligence agencies. The US has placed a $5m bounty on his head, describing him as a “key al-Qaeda facilitator”.

His grip over the Mehsud tribe’s area of South Waziristan, which lies on the border with Afghanistan and where key al-Qaeda commanders have been given sanctuary and support, has been almost absolute for the last three years.

But the challenge from Mr Zainuddin - spurred by widespread revulsion at the death and violence wrought by al-Qaeda in Pakistan - threatens to undermine him for the first time.

Speaking to The Sunday Telegraph at a hideout just outside the dangerous tribal area, Mr Zainuddin declared that Baitullah had betrayed both his religion and his tribe.

“To fight our own country is wrong,” said Mr Zainuddin, guarded by Kalashnikov-carrying followers. “Islam doesn’t give permission to fight against a Muslim country. This is where we differ (with Baitullah). What we’re seeing these days, these bombings in mosques, in markets, in hospitals; these are not allowed in Islam. We don’t agree with them.”

For complete article, click here
Pakistan declares war on Taliban leader Mehsud - McClatchy Newspapers

Post Election Crisis in Iran


Iran’s Day of Anguish
By ROGER COHEN, New York Times, June 14, 2009

TEHRAN — She was in tears like many women on the streets of Iran’s battered capital. “Throw away your pen and paper and come to our aid,” she said, pointing to my notebook. “There is no freedom here.”

And she was gone, away through the milling crowds near the locked-down Interior Ministry spewing its pick-ups full of black-clad riot police. The “green wave” of Iran’s pre-election euphoria had turned black.

Down the street outside the ghostly campaign headquarters of the defeated reformist candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, the baton-wielding police came in whining phalanxes, two to a motorbike, scattering people, beating them.

“Disperse or we’ll do other things and then you’ll really know.” The voice, from a police megaphone, was steady in its menace. “You, over there, in a white hat, I’m talking to you.”

Anger hung in the air, a sullen pall enveloping the city, denser than its smog, bitter as smashed hope.

I say “defeated.” But everything I have seen suggests Moussavi, now rumored to be under house arrest, was cheated, the Iranian people defrauded, in what Moussavi called an act of official “wizardry.”

Within two hours of the closing of the polls, contrary to prior practice and electoral rules, the Interior Ministry, through the state news agency, announced a landslide victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose fantastical take on the world and world history appears to have added another fantastical episode.

Throughout the country, across regions of vast social and ethnic disparity, including Azeri areas that had indicated strong support for Moussavi (himself an Azeri), Ahmadinejad’s margin scarcely wavered, ending at an official 62.63 percent. That’s 24.5 million votes, a breathtaking 8 million more than he got four years ago.

No tally I’ve encountered of Ahmadinejad’s bedrock support among the rural and urban poor, religious conservatives and revolutionary ideologues gets within 6 million votes of that number.

Ahmadinejad won in other candidates’ hometowns, including Moussavi’s. He won in every major city except Tehran. He won very big, against the backdrop of an economic slump.

He won as the Interior Ministry was sealed, opposition Web sites were shut down, text messages were cut off, cell phones were interrupted, Internet access was impeded, dozens of opposition figures were arrested, universities were closed and a massive show of force was orchestrated to ram home the result to an incredulous public.

Overnight, a whole movement and mood were vaporized, to the point that they appeared a hallucination.

The crowds called it a “coup d’Ć©tat.” They shouted “Marg Bar Dictator” — “Death to the dictator.” Eyes smoldered.

I’ve argued for engagement with Iran and I still believe in it, although, in the name of the millions defrauded, President Obama’s outreach must now await a decent interval.

I’ve also argued that, although repressive, the Islamic Republic offers significant margins of freedom by regional standards. I erred in underestimating the brutality and cynicism of a regime that understands the uses of ruthlessness.

“Here is my country,” a young woman said to me, voice breaking. “This is a coup. I could have worked in Europe but I came back for my people.” And she, too, sobbed.

“Don’t cry, be brave,” a man admonished her.

He was from the Interior Ministry. He showed his ID card. He said he’d worked there 30 years. He said he hadn’t been allowed in; nor had most other employees. He said the votes never got counted. He said numbers just got affixed to each candidate.

He said he’d demanded of the police why “victory” required such oppression. He said he’d fought in the 1980-88 Iraq war, his brother was a martyr, and now his youth seemed wasted and the nation’s sacrifice in vain.

Quoting Ferdowsi, the epic poet, he said, “If there is no Iran, let me be not.” Poets are the refuge of every wounded nation — just ask the Poles — and nowhere more so than here in this hour.

Iran exists still, of course, but today it is a dislocated place. Angry divisions have been exposed, between founding fathers of the revolution — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president — and between the regime and the people.

Khamenei, under pressure from Rafsanjani, appeared ready to let the election unfold, but he reversed course, under pressure, or perhaps even diktat, from the Revolutionary Guards and other powerful constituencies.

A harsh clampdown is underway. It’s unclear how far, and for how long, Iranians can resist.

On Vali Asr, the handsome avenue that was festive until the vote, crowds swarmed as night fell, confronting riot police and tear gas. “Moussavi, Moussavi. Give us back our votes,” they chanted.

Majir Mirpour grabbed me. A purple bruise disfigured his arm. He raised his shirt to show a red wound across his back. “They beat me like a pig,” he said, breathless. “They beat me as I tried to help a woman in tears. I don’t care about the physical pain. It’s the pain in my heart that hurts.”

He looked at me and the rage in his eyes made me want to toss away my notebook.

Related:
Mousavi seeks to overturn Iran election result - Reuters
Post-Election Iran: What America Must Do Now - Shirin Sadeghi
Leader says elected president is all Iranians’ president - Tehran Times

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Targetting of an anti-suicide bombing Cleric in Lahore

Moderate Cleric Among 9 Killed in Pakistan Blasts
By WAQAR GILLANI and SABRINA TAVERNISE, New York Times, June 13, 2009

LAHORE, Pakistan — Militants bombed mosques in two cities in Pakistan on Friday, killing at least nine people, including a leading Sunni cleric who was an outspoken critic of the Taliban.

In Lahore, a suicide bomber detonated his explosives inside the religious complex run by the cleric, Sarfraz Ahmed Naeemi, who had been vocal in his opposition to suicide attacks and other tactics used by the Taliban. The bomb seemed to be aimed at Mr. Naeemi, destroying his quarters near the entrance of the complex’s mosque.

He was killed, along with at least five other people. The whitewashed brick wall of the office where he usually sat after delivering his Friday sermon was spattered with blood.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Mufti Naeemi’s murder termed national tragedy - DT
Ghamdi says this is not jihad - DT
Moderate voice silenced - The News

Hearts on The Line in Pakistan

Hearts on The Line in Pakistan
By Ahmed Rashid
Washington Post, June 12, 2009

MARDAN, Pakistan -- Even before the explosion Tuesday at the Pearl Continental Hotel killed at least 16 people in Peshawar, Pakistan was at the center of global attention. Yet for all the concern about terrorism, the world has been stunningly indifferent to the plight of the more than 2.4 million people who have fled the Swat Valley, where the Pakistani army is for the first time seriously attacking the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

If the internally displaced Pakistanis are not properly cared for, public opinion, which has shifted dramatically in recent weeks to support the offensive against the Taliban, could once again turn in support of compromise. Last week, the Taliban launched a series of devastating suicide attacks to both divert security forces and cower public opinion. The truck bomb Tuesday night in Peshawar, northwestern Pakistan's provincial capital, reportedly injured 70.

The mass exodus from the battle zone to the southern plains has been the largest and fastest displacement of people since the genocide in Rwanda 15 years ago, U.N. officials say. Most of the displaced fled the Swat Valley in just two to three weeks last month.

For complete article, click here

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

An ideological bind

WASHINGTON DIARY: An ideological bind — Dr Manzur Ejaz
Daily times, June 10, 2009

It is interesting to note that religious extremism in the subcontinent usually leads to chaos and disarray which preys on the poor alone, further tipping over the already unstable socio-economic state of affairs of the region

The Taliban movement has earned itself unparalleled recognition due to its bloody nature and rigid ideological claims. But it has also left behind many equally terrifying social ills that may not be as melodramatic in nature. Why these issues are not as dramatised as the Taliban movement itself needs further exploration.

A few days back, I attended a conference where a presentation was made on the demographic distribution of health and junk food in the neighbourhoods of US cities. It turned out that richer localities have outlets that offer a variety of food while poorer areas have to contend with mostly junk food. I suggested that the presentation be titled “Distribution of health and junk food under the free market system”. However, most of the discussants, many of whom were highly trained professionals, were uncomfortable with this suggestion.

While a few may not have grasped my sarcasm, others chose to ignore it because their livelihoods depend on the free market. They are trained and hired to improve citizens’ health conditions staying within the parameters of the US capitalist system, which adheres more strictly to free market conditions than its European counterparts. The most radical reformers may suggest a few regulatory changes, but they are compelled not to challenge the fundamentals of the system.

For complete article, click here

Related:
State of Taliban Aggression - DT Editorial
Military operation and the fallout in Lower Dir - Nasim Zehra, The News
Militants Strike Hotel in Pakistan, Killing 11 - NYT

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Why the Taliban won't take over Pakistan?

Why the Taliban won't take over Pakistan
For reasons of geography, ethnicity, military inferiority, and ancient rivalries, they represent neither the immediate threat that is often portrayed nor the inevitable victors that the West fears.
By Ben Arnoldy, Christian Science Monitor, July 7, 2009

Islamabad, Pakistan - It has become the statistic heard round the world. The Taliban are within 60 miles of Islamabad. Just 60 miles. Every dispatch about the insurgents' recent advance into the Pakistani district of Buner carried the ominous number.

Washington quivered, too. A top counterinsurgency expert, David Kilcullen, reiterated that Pakistan could collapse within six months. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said flatly if the country were to fall, the Taliban would have the "keys to the nuclear arsenal." On a visit to Islamabad, Sen. John Kerry – the proctor of $7.5 billion in Pakistani aid as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee – warned bluntly: "The government has to ratchet up the urgency."

The Pakistani military did launch a major counteroffensive that has sent 2 million people fleeing their homes. For now, both the US and many Pakistanis appear to be relieved that the military has drawn a line at least somewhere, in this case in the fruit orchards of the Swat Valley and the city of Mingora, north of Islamabad.

Yet Pakistani analysts and officials here caution that the casus belli of all the commotion – the infamous 60 miles and the threat of an imminent Taliban takeover – is overblown. The Visigoths are not about to overrun the gates of Rome. Bearded guys with fistfuls of AK-47s are not poised to breeze into Islamabad on the back of white Toyota pickups.

True, the Taliban threat remains serious. By one estimate, the militants maintain a presence in more than 60 percent of northwestern Pakistan and control significant sections along the Afghan border. Moreover, the possibility of the insurgents one day getting their hands on nuclear material remains the ultimate horror – it would probably be more ominous than the Cuban missile crisis.

For complete article, click here

Related:
US envoy sees Pakistanis backing fight vs Taliban - Reuters
Taliban in trouble as mass resistance continues in Northwest Pakistan - Focus

Sunday, June 07, 2009

Jaag Utha Pakistan

Jaag Utha Pakistan, cry villagers
The News, June 07, 2009
People get even with Taliban in Dir
By Delawar Jan

PESHAWAR: Hundreds of armed people of Hayagay Sharqi, Kilot, Doon and Man Doog attacked six villages of Doog Darra harbouring the Afghan militants affiliated with the Taliban, killing several of them besides torching their houses.

According to sketchy reports from Doog Darra, six persons, including a commander of the militants identified as Chamtu, were killed and as many houses were torched. Some sources put the number of casualties at two. Locals said that heavy and light weapons were being used during the attack.

“We saw two houses, owned by Taliban supporters, that were set on fire by the advancing armed people. They captured most of the bunkers from the militants while heavy firing is still continuing,” a resident of Doog Darra, wishing anonymity, told The News by phone late Saturday.

The people of Hayagay Sharqi held the Taliban responsible for the deadly suicide blast in a mosque that killed 49 worshippers on Friday and launched the action to kill or evict them.

The resident who talked to The News said that the exact number of casualties could not be ascertained due to the darkness but said the Taliban might have been killed in large numbers as the Lashkar had eliminated the militants manning the bunkers.

Earlier, an elder of the area, wishing anonymity, said they would not allow the foreign militants to remain entrenched in the area and rule the people through terror.

“We had no hostility with the Taliban except that we are not ready to allow them to unleash terror here. We cannot tolerate the foreign militants in the area and we will keep opposing them,” he told The News by phone.

“They killed our children and we are not going to spare them. We will certainly take action against the Taliban to avenge the death of our sons.”

However, he refused to go into the details as to when they could launch action.

It merits a mention here that the people of Miana Doog — situated to the southeast of five villages of Panaghar, Maluk Khwar, Bar Doog, Ghazigay and Shatkas that have given shelter to the militants — have also been strong opponents of the Taliban militants operating under an Afghan commander, Amir Khitab. Hayagay is situated to the west of these five villages of Doog Darra. Besieged by these two villages, the militants have been unsuccessful in carrying out their militant activities in other areas. Therefore, the Taliban are desperate to subjugate the people of both the villages by using their dreadful tactic of suicide bombing.

The people of Miana Doog had taken up arms against the militants in January to secure the release of a former Afghan official the Taliban had kept in Doog Darra. However, their efforts to force the militants to leave the area failed despite winning pledges several times from the militants.

Meanwhile, the death toll in the Friday’s suicide attack reached 49.

A suicide bomber ripped through a mosque, which was full of worshippers preparing for Friday prayers, killing at least 40.

Some people, including children, were reported missing, which has led many to believe that they might have also been blown up. However, there were conflicting accounts about the final death toll. “We laid to rest 49 blast victims on Friday night,” a man, who was in the area during the burial, said. He said three children were still missing.

A villager, Omar Rahman, told The News that the death toll could be more than 40. However, he said that they buried 33 persons while eight others were missing. He said that the people were grief-stricken, but in high spirits. He did not rule out the threat of more suicide attacks in gatherings for condolences, but said they were not afraid of such tactics. He said that the people were vigilant and would take care of the security of the area to the best of their ability.

Rahman said the atmosphere was gloomy as several families in the village had seen more than one casualty in a single day.

A family lost its head, Fazlur Rahman, in the incident. Among the dead were also his three sons, including 7-year-old Abdullah and young Ismail. The name of the third one could not be ascertained. Their family members were shaken, wailing over the irreparable loss inflicted on them for no fault of theirs.

Ahmad Jan and Bakht Badshah also died along with their two sons each in the blast. The area has already seen a lot of bloodshed due to blood feuds.

The injured were flown from Timergara to Peshawar on Saturday for provision of better treatment.

Also See:
‘Command & control structure of militants dismantled’ - The News
High-Value Prisoners Killed in Pakistan - NYT